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13-09-2021, 09:53 AM
#9921
Originally Posted by winner69
Been thinking about what might happen to the likes of Oceania with the 'new normal' / living with covid and no more lock downs - maybe next year
Probably be hundreds and hundreds (maybe thousands) of covid cases reported every day
Aged care facilities will be affected - they won't be able to escape living with covid
At least it will be 'normal' and and the outcomes accepted as one of those things - so shouldn't shock the markets hopefully
Question then - should whatever the living with covid ramifications are affect our perceived value of Oceania (and others) shares
We should be forward looking
An upside might be higher death rates for a few years which would help that unit turnover rate (good) - downside might be more really sick residents whose sickness will linger and requiring moe and longer care (hoping faciities can cope and have enough people)
Aren't the vaccination rates in the retirement homes by now close to 100% (both staff and residents)?
Given that am I not sure I expect Covid to rock retirement villages next year. Sure - some residents might catch it, but outcomes won't be worse for the vaccinated residents as what the flu used to do to them in previous years.
While you are right that NZ needs to prepare for hundreds or thousands of daily new cases, it will be a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Hopefully not in our (well vaccinated) retirements villages.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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13-09-2021, 10:01 AM
#9922
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Aren't the vaccination rates in the retirement homes by now close to 100% (both staff and residents)?
Given that am I not sure I expect Covid to rock retirement villages next year. Sure - some residents might catch it, but outcomes won't be worse for the vaccinated residents as what the flu used to do to them in previous years.
While you are right that NZ needs to prepare for hundreds or thousands of daily new cases, it will be a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Hopefully not in our (well vaccinated) retirements villages.
I'm glad you are so optimistic BP so I shouldn't worry
Unless investors don't panic sell en masse when they read about covid deaths in aged care places
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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13-09-2021, 10:03 AM
#9923
The vaccination rates amongst the elderly, particularly those living in residential care, has been very high. The vast majority will already be fully vaccinated. Those in residential care are also already having their health monitored closely and caregivers are very quickly "onto it" in terms of noticing any changes in health, behaviours, mood etc. Any concerns/observations of changes, are escalated to an RN - every shift. Which means those in care are at a distinct advantage.
I think you will also find, that even if government imposed lock downs become a thing of the past, providers will always have the right, and ability, to impose temporary, short term restrictions on things like visitors, outings etc - if there was a significant outbreak in their area. I have no doubt that residents would continue to be supportive of any such restrictions. They already feel protected and understand that providers/staff are doing what they can to ensure their well-being.
I don't envisage any major issues, providing we can get our vaccination rates to an optimal level (but let's not "go there" here)
Originally Posted by winner69
Been thinking about what might happen to the likes of Oceania with the 'new normal' / living with covid and no more lock downs - maybe next year
Probably be hundreds and hundreds (maybe thousands) of covid cases reported every day
Aged care facilities will be affected - they won't be able to escape living with covid
At least it will be 'normal' and and the outcomes accepted as one of those things - so shouldn't shock the markets hopefully
Question then - should whatever the living with covid ramifications are affect our perceived value of Oceania (and others) shares
We should be forward looking
An upside might be higher death rates for a few years which would help that unit turnover rate (good) - downside might be more really sick residents whose sickness will linger and requiring moe and longer care (hoping faciities can cope and have enough people)
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13-09-2021, 10:23 AM
#9924
Originally Posted by justakiwi
The vaccination rates amongst the elderly, particularly those living in residential care, has been very high. The vast majority will already be fully vaccinated. Those in residential care are also already having their health monitored closely and caregivers are very quickly "onto it" in terms of noticing any changes in health, behaviours, mood etc. Any concerns/observations of changes, are escalated to an RN - every shift. Which means those in care are at a distinct advantage.
I think you will also find, that even if government imposed lock downs become a thing of the past, providers will always have the right, and ability, to impose temporary, short term restrictions on things like visitors, outings etc - if there was a significant outbreak in their area. I have no doubt that residents would continue to be supportive of any such restrictions. They already feel protected and understand that providers/staff are doing what they can to ensure their well-being.
I don't envisage any major issues, providing we can get our vaccination rates to an optimal level (but let's not "go there" here)
Thank you for your valuable feedback from the front line.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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13-09-2021, 03:33 PM
#9925
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13-09-2021, 03:39 PM
#9926
Originally Posted by thegreatestben
Not surprising as he went to the competition 6 months ago
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13-09-2021, 04:36 PM
#9927
Yeah, interested to know why sell now? Maybe he think SP is as good as it's going to get in the short term? Is he under any pressure to sell as CEO of MET?
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13-09-2021, 04:55 PM
#9928
Maybe needs 6 months distance so no longer considered an insider
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13-09-2021, 05:23 PM
#9929
Member
Originally Posted by thegreatestben
Yeah, interested to know why sell now? Maybe he think SP is as good as it's going to get in the short term? Is he under any pressure to sell as CEO of MET?
maybe he bought a Bach
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13-09-2021, 05:24 PM
#9930
Or a MET Retirement home.
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