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  1. #3111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    If they print any of their analysis out on paper and send it to me I hope its on toilet paper so I have some use for it.
    I won't mince words here, I honestly think their analysis is complete garbage.
    Don't hold back Beagle, tell us what you really think ...

  2. #3112
    Member Onion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    Its a free analysis service provided by FNZC under their Direct Broking platform which replaced the ANZ Securities platform. I dont have a view on their skills yet.
    ShareClarity is an independent organisation. They have struck a deal with Direct Broking but have also offered the service to NZSA members previously.

    Listen to a podcast interviewing the founder of ShareClarity, Daniel Kieser.

    https://www.podcasts.nz/daniel-kiese...asset-classes/

  3. #3113
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    If they print any of their analysis out on paper and send it to me I hope its on toilet paper so I have some use for it.
    I won't mince words here, I honestly think their analysis is complete garbage.
    Capital intensives like retirement are not going to score well in an algorithmic DCF valuer.

    Exclusivey DCF valuations, nothing in retirement fares wells.

    Even my beloved ARV doesn't.

    They are anything but garbage, they paint no biased qualitative analysis, only numbers.

  4. #3114
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Now I understand why it feels so lonely on my perfectly good Shareclarity thread (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...g-ShareClarity) ... the OCA thead seems to be the place to be to discuss them!

    From my perspective - I agree that shareclarity delivers just numbers ... question is just whether these numbers add value.

    In many cases I fail to see a sensible correlation between their numbers and any realistic valuation of a company. Not the fault of the DCF method, but in my view either inexperienced people (or more likely bots) feeding the algorithms ... They say: garbage in - garbage out.

    ... and now - lets go to the thread and continue the ciscussion - shall we?

    https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...g-ShareClarity
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  5. #3115
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Now I understand why it feels so lonely on my perfectly good Shareclarity thread (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...g-ShareClarity) ... the OCA thead seems to be the place to be to discuss them!

    From my perspective - I agree that shareclarity delivers just numbers ... question is just whether these numbers add value.

    In many cases I fail to see a sensible correlation between their numbers and any realistic valuation of a company. Not the fault of the DCF method, but in my view either inexperienced people (or more likely bots) feeding the algorithms ... They say: garbage in - garbage out.

    ... and now - lets go to the thread and continue the ciscussion - shall we?

    https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...g-ShareClarity
    Really sorry for mentioning shareclarity .....but I had just got their new cool app and had to play with it and OCA came up.

    Their DCF valuations a bit like your oft mentioned spreadsheets BP?

    Suppose if shareclarity had said OCA was 17% undervalued (on their value gap basis) the comments, if any, would be have been different eh. More good raw material for the LSE guys
    Last edited by winner69; 13-02-2019 at 08:20 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #3116
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Shareclarity can’t be too bad ....their DCF value for thl is $3.81 which is 1 cent more than my optimistic scenario. Must use the same input assumptions

    Can’t be right ....rubbish in rubbish out ....load of crap.

    But most tend to disregard DCF valuations anyway and do the cheats way and use PE ratios and even such things ...or even worse still that much vaunted Graham Formula (when it suits)
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #3117
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtech View Post
    Don't hold back Beagle, tell us what you really think ...


    Quote Originally Posted by hardt View Post
    Capital intensives like retirement are not going to score well in an algorithmic DCF valuer.

    Exclusivey DCF valuations, nothing in retirement fares wells.

    Even my beloved ARV doesn't.

    They are anything but garbage, they paint no biased qualitative analysis, only numbers.
    DCF is nothing but a model using a whole bunch of assumptions. If really inexperienced analysts make a bunch of wrong calls on those assumptions you have the classic situation of any model that represents garbage in and garbage out.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #3118
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Shareclarity can’t be too bad ....their DCF value for thl is $3.81 which is 1 cent more than my optimistic scenario. Must use the same input assumptions

    Can’t be right ....rubbish in rubbish out ....load of crap.

    But most tend to disregard DCF valuations anyway and do the cheats way and use PE ratios and even such things ...or even worse still that much vaunted Graham Formula (when it suits)
    I actually find it irksome that on the Direct broking website the share clarity dcf valuation appears with a reference to the discount to present price or a premium. This gives share clarity vastly more credibility than they deserve in my opinion and implies that their dcf is a very valid reference point. Nothing could be further from the truth in my opinion.

    Nice to see you back Maverick. Don't let some of the bull that some people talk on here put you off your game mate.
    .
    Last edited by Beagle; 13-02-2019 at 08:46 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #3119
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    those bollingers are turning down will they confirm the fundamental case
    one step ahead of the herd

  10. #3120
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    those bollingers are turning down will they confirm the fundamental case
    Other indicators turning up and those bands are too wide at this point to draw any conclusions.

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