OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Fatboyj]

3c a divi will be good start.

I bought into this because I liked the ad. Cats are cute. And at that time a few directors were buying up big I think back in Sept/Oct. And all the positive posts in this thread. Noob investor criteria is paying off nicely for this stock.

[trader_jackson]

How many cents dividend are you picking?

I'd be happy with 2.0c at the half year and the rest invested in developments. I think forecasts were initially 4.5c for this coming year.

[dabsman]

I was assuming 4cps for the year so approx 2c this coming payment. Happy to be wrong on the upside

[Ggcc]

http://www.4-traders.com/OCEANIA-HEA...10/financials/

Roughly 4cents per share is what is mentioned here

[winner69]

No, no t_j

On forward underlying earnings basis if OCA was valued like Ryman it would be about $2.45

Cool eh


you probably got confused with that dog SUM ..i’ll forgive you

On a foreward underlying earnings basis SUM and OCA are similarly valued ......but RYM still has that huge premium attached to it

If OCA priced at RYM multiples shareprice be $2.49 (SUM would be $11.95)

Maybe current prices are about right for OCA and SUM (and only RYM the odd one out)

My numbers below

Different balance dates make such a comparison a bit difficult - RYM and OCA are mid year but I have used a Dec 18 forecast for SUM.

[Beagle]

RYM the Rolls Royce of the sector and priced like that too. Nothing ever goes wrong with Rolls Royce engines right ?
Just giving a heads-up, I'm probably pulling my underlying 2018 forecast for SUM back to ~ $90-95m, (from an initial preliminary $100m) after my discussion with the CFO the other day, (need to work on my model a bit more) but its still cheap and if OCA can beat their forecast and demonstrate a clear pipeline to future profit growth they are also very cheap, perhaps even cheaper than SUM but then again SUM have a six year history and OCA need to build market trust and credibility over time.
Over the next few years we could see a significant PE rerating of both SUM and OCA whereas surely RYM has run its race for now ?

[JoeGrogan]

On a foreward underlying earnings basis SUM and OCA are similarly valued ......but RYM still has that huge premium attached to it

If OCA priced at RYM multiples shareprice be $2.49 (SUM would be $11.95)

Maybe current prices are about right for OCA and SUM (and only RYM the odd one out)

My numbers below

Different balance dates make such a comparison a bit difficult - RYM and OCA are mid year but I have used a Dec 18 forecast for SUM.

Funny thing is that before SUM first hit 50mil in underlying profit it was already valued at over a billion dollars. But i guess SUM had a lot more assets at the time and more growth prospects...

[kiwico]

RYM the Rolls Royce of the sector and priced like that too. Nothing ever goes wrong with Rolls Royce engines right ?

Just to be a tad pedantic, one Rolls Royce is completely different from the other. The Rolls Royce standard would refer to the cars, now owned by VW although BMW has the brand (rumour had it BMW thought they were buying the RR car company which was bought from underneath them by VW). Rolls Royce Holdings plc makes the aforementioned aero engines that are undergoing a bit of bother at the moment.

Other than that thanks for the heads up.

[dabsman]

Over the next few years we could see a significant PE rerating of both SUM and OCA whereas surely RYM has run its race for now ?

I think RYM is only just starting. Dabbled its toes in Aussie (and only one region of Aussie) and things are going well. The ability to add more villages there is not tied up by bs council requirements and land restrictions we have here. Also there is much cheaper build cost and labour isnt the issue we have here. I think its still running and and getting into its stride...

[couta1]

I think RYM is only just starting. Dabbled its toes in Aussie (and only one region of Aussie) and things are going well. The ability to add more villages there is not tied up by bs council requirements and land restrictions we have here. Also there is much cheaper build cost and labour isnt the issue we have here. I think its still running and and getting into its stride...

It never pays to underestimate Ryman, after all they are in the top 10 Healthcare companies worldwide and overseas players know that.