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13-02-2019, 07:20 AM
#3111
Originally Posted by Beagle
If they print any of their analysis out on paper and send it to me I hope its on toilet paper so I have some use for it.
I won't mince words here, I honestly think their analysis is complete garbage.
Don't hold back Beagle, tell us what you really think ...
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13-02-2019, 08:40 AM
#3112
Originally Posted by peat
Its a free analysis service provided by FNZC under their Direct Broking platform which replaced the ANZ Securities platform. I dont have a view on their skills yet.
ShareClarity is an independent organisation. They have struck a deal with Direct Broking but have also offered the service to NZSA members previously.
Listen to a podcast interviewing the founder of ShareClarity, Daniel Kieser.
https://www.podcasts.nz/daniel-kiese...asset-classes/
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13-02-2019, 08:48 AM
#3113
Originally Posted by Beagle
If they print any of their analysis out on paper and send it to me I hope its on toilet paper so I have some use for it.
I won't mince words here, I honestly think their analysis is complete garbage.
Capital intensives like retirement are not going to score well in an algorithmic DCF valuer.
Exclusivey DCF valuations, nothing in retirement fares wells.
Even my beloved ARV doesn't.
They are anything but garbage, they paint no biased qualitative analysis, only numbers.
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13-02-2019, 08:58 AM
#3114
Now I understand why it feels so lonely on my perfectly good Shareclarity thread (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...g-ShareClarity) ... the OCA thead seems to be the place to be to discuss them!
From my perspective - I agree that shareclarity delivers just numbers ... question is just whether these numbers add value.
In many cases I fail to see a sensible correlation between their numbers and any realistic valuation of a company. Not the fault of the DCF method, but in my view either inexperienced people (or more likely bots) feeding the algorithms ... They say: garbage in - garbage out.
... and now - lets go to the thread and continue the ciscussion - shall we?
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...g-ShareClarity
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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13-02-2019, 09:06 AM
#3115
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Now I understand why it feels so lonely on my perfectly good Shareclarity thread ( https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...g-ShareClarity) ... the OCA thead seems to be the place to be to discuss them!
From my perspective - I agree that shareclarity delivers just numbers ... question is just whether these numbers add value.
In many cases I fail to see a sensible correlation between their numbers and any realistic valuation of a company. Not the fault of the DCF method, but in my view either inexperienced people (or more likely bots) feeding the algorithms ... They say: garbage in - garbage out.
... and now - lets go to the thread and continue the ciscussion - shall we?
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...g-ShareClarity
Really sorry for mentioning shareclarity .....but I had just got their new cool app and had to play with it and OCA came up.
Their DCF valuations a bit like your oft mentioned spreadsheets BP?
Suppose if shareclarity had said OCA was 17% undervalued (on their value gap basis) the comments, if any, would be have been different eh. More good raw material for the LSE guys
Last edited by winner69; 13-02-2019 at 09:20 AM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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13-02-2019, 09:24 AM
#3116
Shareclarity can’t be too bad ....their DCF value for thl is $3.81 which is 1 cent more than my optimistic scenario. Must use the same input assumptions
Can’t be right ....rubbish in rubbish out ....load of crap.
But most tend to disregard DCF valuations anyway and do the cheats way and use PE ratios and even such things ...or even worse still that much vaunted Graham Formula (when it suits)
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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13-02-2019, 09:35 AM
#3117
Originally Posted by oldtech
Don't hold back Beagle, tell us what you really think ...
Originally Posted by hardt
Capital intensives like retirement are not going to score well in an algorithmic DCF valuer.
Exclusivey DCF valuations, nothing in retirement fares wells.
Even my beloved ARV doesn't.
They are anything but garbage, they paint no biased qualitative analysis, only numbers.
DCF is nothing but a model using a whole bunch of assumptions. If really inexperienced analysts make a bunch of wrong calls on those assumptions you have the classic situation of any model that represents garbage in and garbage out.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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13-02-2019, 09:40 AM
#3118
Originally Posted by winner69
Shareclarity can’t be too bad ....their DCF value for thl is $3.81 which is 1 cent more than my optimistic scenario. Must use the same input assumptions
Can’t be right ....rubbish in rubbish out ....load of crap.
But most tend to disregard DCF valuations anyway and do the cheats way and use PE ratios and even such things ...or even worse still that much vaunted Graham Formula (when it suits)
I actually find it irksome that on the Direct broking website the share clarity dcf valuation appears with a reference to the discount to present price or a premium. This gives share clarity vastly more credibility than they deserve in my opinion and implies that their dcf is a very valid reference point. Nothing could be further from the truth in my opinion.
Nice to see you back Maverick. Don't let some of the bull that some people talk on here put you off your game mate.
.
Last edited by Beagle; 13-02-2019 at 09:46 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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13-02-2019, 09:56 AM
#3119
those bollingers are turning down will they confirm the fundamental case
one step ahead of the herd
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13-02-2019, 10:02 AM
#3120
Originally Posted by bull....
those bollingers are turning down will they confirm the fundamental case
Other indicators turning up and those bands are too wide at this point to draw any conclusions.
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