OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Baa_Baa]

My two cents, OCA like the other aged care providers are fundamentally a challenging business model to understand at the accounts detail level, let alone their complex obfuscated wording in the accounts. They are a unwieldy mix of property investing alongwith the business of profitably caring for our elderly, their income source is spread across individuals and government funding with complex rules. There are really smart people here who can help with that, I don't pretend to be an expert in the FA although I do study it, but I'm happy to offer some insights to the SP movements.

OCA is currently captive to market sentiment, which is negative. Look up 'momentum trading', Google will give you some insights. Smart traders rode the SP momentum up past its real value (price) and sold into the trend, maybe somewhat influenced by a ramp attack here, who knows really. Fact is though, it's sold off after sentiment said it was too high and maybe still is (TA says so). Currently OCA has recently tested its longer term resistance levels around $1.11-$1.09 (also failing the 50MA resistance).. now settling below.

It reckon that's a fair market price range, so where we are right now is a decent buy, below that on the technicals with a downside risk of a few cents if it plumbs the March to May 2018 lows, which if it does I'd also be happy to buy into. If property prices collapse, it will affect all aged care providers property business, but one needs a longer term horizon, they will recover. None of these stocks are short term holds unless you're a bonafide SP trader.

If you look through all the talk, whether FA or TA, you might see that the next period of time is a good opportunity for taking a position, or accumulating onto a position. It doesn't look like a 'sell a position' to me, unless you've lost faith in the company, that would be capitulation at this price.

[whome]

Excellent advice & knowledgeable common sense answers on both FA & TA to Champions post. Thanks people. Great to have a benchmark of opinion to measure portfolio mix. Discl. OCA 25% of portfolio.

[BlackPeter]

Not a biggie - but it looks like Sally Evans (one of the newer directors) thought the current SP weakness is a good opportunity to buy her first parcel (20k) of OCA shares:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...722/296485.pdf

Ah yes - and talking about downtrends - anybody noticed that the SP seems to bounce along the EMA400 (yellow in the pic below) which is currently $1.04? So, maybe this is as dark as it gets ...

OCAtrend.jpg

[forest]

[QUOTE=BlackPeter;750787]Not a biggie - but it looks like Sally Evans (one of the newer directors) thought the current SP weakness is a good opportunity to buy her first parcel (20k) of OCA shares:

You right, one director buying not a biggie.
It looks however more significant if one realise that 2 directors bought shares in Feb and the GM property Mark Stockton in Jan.
That are 4 insiders buying in sort period of time, might give others the confidence to buy.

[Beagle]

Not a biggie - but it looks like Sally Evans (one of the newer directors) thought the current SP weakness is a good opportunity to buy her first parcel (20k) of OCA shares:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...722/296485.pdf

Ah yes - and talking about downtrends - anybody noticed that the SP seems to bounce along the EMA400 (yellow in the pic below) which is currently $1.04? So, maybe this is as dark as it gets ...

OCAtrend.jpg

Yes I would think there is very sound long term value at this level.

I agree with Maverick that HLG financial statements are very simple to understand, by FAR, the simplest of any company that I own on the NZX. I like the company a lot too. On the other hand even for professionals the OCA accounts are a VERY hard read in my opinion.

[winner69]

Good on Sally ...she’s a hero buying some Oceania shares ..probably took her that long to help bderstand the company

Only taken a year for her to get involved ...but we will forgive her

No longer truely independent now ..has a vested interest

[peat]

Not a biggie - but it looks like Sally Evans (one of the newer directors) thought the current SP weakness is a good opportunity to buy her first parcel (20k) of OCA shares:

not that she bought them in weakness, paying 1.10 per share as per the notice.

[bull....]

1.04 looking vunerable again

[winner69]

1.04 looking vunerable again

What’ll happen if it breaks below 1.04 bull...

[bull....]

What’ll happen if it breaks below 1.04 bull...

re sales will probably go up