OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

Oceania reports an underlying net profit after tax* of $24.1 million for the six months ending 30 November 2019, a substantial 17.6% ($3.6 million) increase compared to the prior corresponding period

Good result ....should see share price kept its upward momentum

[winner69]

Their accounts are so complicated there is a compelling temptation to simply look at the NTA change and add any dividends paid during the period. That would save me a ton of work wouldn't it Winner.

Hope you don’t do this sum on H1 accounts, especially using the May numbers as a starting point - ie what’s happened last 6 months.

[Beagle]

Hope you don’t do this sum on H1 accounts, especially from the May numbers - ie what’s happened last 6 months.

NAV up just 1 cent, add back dividend paid during the period and you get total comprehensive change in value of just 3.5 cents per share. Ouch !!
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...503/315683.pdf

Underlying earnings are nowhere near what Mav was hoping for and even undershot my more conservative estimate.

Sales at Sands and Meadowbank are only just meeting expectations by the look of it. (Those without sea views will be much harder to sell at the Sands in my opinion).
Care earnings from their established business model continue to deteriorate as I predicted due to increased labour costs.

First impressions, I am really quite underwhelmed. Costs keep rising at a fast rate and I continue to believe this is a company that has at best, very average discipline when it comes to internal control systems around cost.

Disc: Don't own and not intending to buy.
Good luck to holders.

[winner69]

Oceania H120 saw 42 more sales than pcp ....Underlying Earnings up $3.6m

SUM sales FY19 more or less the same as pcp ....Underlying Earnings probably up about $20m On pcp

That’s what I struggle to understand with OCA ...sell heaps more and don’t make much more

[Beagle]

It around cost control. Julian is as tough as old boots, Earl is a real people person and people pleaser. He's running it for the residents and staff. Julian knows who he's really running it for, that's the key difference right there. Earl is just too nice a guy. Need to be tough to be an effective CEO for shareholders.

[winner69]

The charismatic one will love presenting this to analysts etc ...it’s so so positive

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...503/315683.pdf

[winner69]

Mention of a bond offer as well

Leverage increasing all the time

Borrowings up $20m while divie $13m paid out

[BlackPeter]

Good to see sales of their new units rising, but admittedly from a low base. Their sales are still only wee drops compared to a bucket full of old units (which need renovation). Much of their money goes into development of new units / renovations they plan to deliver in FY20, which clearly will make a difference if they manage to sell them as well.

Not quite sure I understand the lack of patience of some of the posters here. I see them moving into the right direction - and if they start to sell the more than 500 units they plan to deliver in FY20 (vs 55 this HY) then we will see as well a meaningful contribution to the NPAT. Sure - they have still a big overhang of older care facilities, and only bringing these numbers down (by converting them into newer more lucrative units) will over time meaningful improve their cost base and profit.

Having said that - the dividend paid out of care isn't that bad, isn't it, and they can afford to pay it.

Compared to last year HY underlying NPAT up from $20.5m to $24.1m, IFRS NPAT more than ten-folded (admittedly on a quite small number last time), total assets up from $1.2b to $1.5b, sales volume up from 144 to 186 (and second half seems to be historically better) ... which reason would holders have to whinge?

[Beagle]

Another 2-3 years before they're 50-50 new model v ever deceasing profitability of old model.
OCA most susceptible to the rampant increase in human resource costs because they're by far the most care focused on the companies in this sector.
Stands to reason that they will continue to under perform because of this fact, i.e. their business model is conceptually weaker than others due to its substaintial exposure to ongoing significant wage and salary increases. Other companies in this sector have considerably lower exposure with significantly higher percentage of independent living units.

In a time of high wage cost increases and scarcity of staff, conceptually others in the sector have a significant relative advantage because of the significant differences in their business model.

[couta1]

Well the market seems happy otherwise it would have dropped like a stone after its run up.