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  1. #1991
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    Thanks for this, some big selling at 1.23, not much after that!

  2. #1992
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lawstudent05 View Post
    Thanks for this, some big selling at 1.23, not much after that!
    Seems fair to conclude that $1.23 is the new base. Onwards and upwards from here.

  3. #1993
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Underlying profit of ARV to 31/3/18 $33m on 413.9m shares gives 7.97 cps. At $1.35 that puts them on a historical underlying PE of 16.94, similar to SUM who have a vastly longer track record of underlying profit growth.

    OCA based on underlying EPS of 8.5 cps from memory even at $1.23 are trading on a historical underlying PE of 14.48.

    We know its all about forward PE and I am expecting a very substantial lift in underlying EPS for OCA this year. Long term the churn rate on the care suite model is more than double that of apartments or independent living units so I am expecting long term outperformance in this sector from OCA.

    T.J. will tell you ARV are very cheap but I for one am not convinced and see SUM as better value and OCA as much better value and both having at least as good or better growth prospects. SUM's strength is in its independent living model which forms the dominant part of its business.
    OCA are at the other end of the spectrum focusing on late stage care. I think the two are very good complimentary holdings.
    You are right with all your numbers - however FY18 is now the past, and FY19 will likely show ARV being a fair chunk cheaper than OCA, and possibly even sum others... It is interesting that some brokers are expecting negative EPS for OCA this year... but I am sure we will now both* agree at $1 OCA was too cheap, even with flat FY19 EPS.
    We won't bother looking at other ratios as ARV is without doubt cheapest there, eg dividend yeild, price/book etc

    *I say both with a * as just a year and a half ago prior to OCA listing at 79c it wasn't the both of us saying OCA was a bargain... it was just me

  4. #1994
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    I bought OCA at 82 cents after the IPO price settled and initial risk of the float and what might happen to the price thereafter had dissipated. One could argue on a risk adjusted basis this was a more optimal risk reward strategy than investing in the IPO itself at 79 cents. Regarding one broker I won't name who holds a negative view, even a broken clock is right twice a day but more often than not, its hopelessly inaccurate ! I don't pretend to have done any major analysis on ARV...for my money there's SUM companies with a reputation that's been earned over a long period of time based on consistent strong growth trading on a very similar multiple so that's good enough for me. Can't be everywhere in this market but good luck to you with ARV. I did have a look and formed the opinion that yield was okay but it was only a modest growth opportunity.
    Last edited by Beagle; 25-09-2018 at 02:09 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #1995
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Seems fair to conclude that $1.23 is the new base. Onwards and upwards from here.
    Nope, it's overbought so the tide is turning back to $1.18.

  6. #1996
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    My investment advisor/ brokers hasn't changed their metrics
    1 year t/p av of $1.18 from 3 analysts with 1 buy and 2 holds

    4traders 2 ratings , both hold t/p $1.19
    Buying at the IPO of $.79 which is still my average has been the optimal risk reward way to go imo. Will only top up if some sort of black swan event drops the mkt and OCA s/p a lot.

  7. #1997
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    My investment advisor/ brokers hasn't changed their metrics
    1 year t/p av of $1.18 from 3 analysts with 1 buy and 2 holds

    4traders 2 ratings , both hold t/p $1.19
    Buying at the IPO of $.79 which is still my average has been the optimal risk reward way to go imo. Will only top up if some sort of black swan event drops the mkt and OCA s/p a lot.
    That's fine...the same analysts have a consensus view on RYM of $10.60 and the SP is at a 26% premium to that last time I looked.
    If we look out ten years, which company is going to do better over the long run ?, one that enjoys a 7 year cycle with its property churn and takes 20% for that or one like OCA that has a 2.5-3.0 year property churn and takes 30% for that ? Then start to consider that OCA has less than half the PE of RYM and has a second to none including RYM, reputation in late stage care and one starts to get the sense of where the future lies for capital gain.

    I also like that care suites are at a much more affordable end of the market and that OCA are solely focused on the N.Z. market and not exposed to the Australian market which is currently experiencing some interesting downward price movements. SUM and now MET also considering expanding into a falling Australian housing market...Hmmm. maybe this isn't the right time ? Forbar's so called analysis predicting an EPS decrease for OCA this year is absolute rubbish in my view. For one thing they haven't even considered the dramatic uplift in development units this year.
    Last edited by Beagle; 26-09-2018 at 02:59 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #1998
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    ... the Australian market which is currently experiencing some interesting downward price movements. SUM and now MET also considering expanding into a falling Australian housing market...Hmmm. maybe this isn't the right time ?
    Or is it the perfect time?
    Might be some bargains going.

  9. #1999
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    reputation in late stage care and one starts to get the sense of where the future lies for capital gain.
    I think this late stage care is worth continuously looking at. Seems to me (so I must do more research) that we are living longer and a combination of better nutrition, better housing and better healthcare / drugs will see us all living longer. But not necessarily better. Theres a train load of senior care having left the station and as each year goes by more passengers get on than get off. And those tracks lead to only one place - increased demand for senior care with dignity.

  10. #2000
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    That's fine...the same analysts have a consensus view on RYM of $10.60 and the SP is at a 26% premium to that last time I looked.
    If we look out ten years, which company is going to do better over the long run ?, one that enjoys a 7 year cycle with its property churn and takes 20% for that or one like OCA that has a 2.5-3.0 year property churn and takes 30% for that ? Then start to consider that OCA has less than half the PE of RYM and has a second to none including RYM, reputation in late stage care and one starts to get the sense of where the future lies for capital gain.

    I also like that care suites are at a much more affordable end of the market and that OCA are solely focused on the N.Z. market and not exposed to the Australian market which is currently experiencing some interesting downward price movements. SUM and now MET also considering expanding into a falling Australian housing market...Hmmm. maybe this isn't the right time ? Forbar's so called analysis predicting an EPS decrease for OCA this year is absolute rubbish in my view. For one thing they haven't even considered the dramatic uplift in development units this year.
    One year is where im focused atm so im waiting for a far better opp to top up at decent discount. the price you pay makes the difference between a very good investment and an ordinary one. Happy with my 79c average atp, its been that very good investment due to the entry price point..
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 26-09-2018 at 04:11 PM.

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