DISC: Im not a property investor except for a few shares. The commentator says its pointless statistical data. I get the sense that this event is a very rare one and statistics arnt telling me much except there are people who havnt changed there intended behaviours. They are investing at a time of extreme shock or is this telling us that the events havnt had a behavioural changing effect on a large number of the property investing people who live in new zealand.
Arvida took $5 m hit extra expy from the covid. $2m from government n extra $3m from the company.
Hope ARV, OCA and all other RV operators have their audit files ready to demonstrate that they had a reasonable basis for expecting their revenue to fall by at least 30% when they claimed the Government wage subsidy. I’m not aware that incurring additional costs due to COVID-19 disruptions to a business has any relevance to the eligibility criteria. Government will surely be active with their reviews of claims in the aged care sector.
Arvida took $5 m hit extra expy from the covid. $2m from government n extra $3m from the company.
Awesome King1212,Can you let me know where you got that info. That`s exactly what I`ve been looking for, hopefully it also indicates the time frame the $3m cost covers as ARV`s annual result only covers the early few weeks of level 4.
Thanks Beagle for your recent post`s suggestions of extra covid expenses but there are still too many missing parts to be useful such as GOVT extra funding and cost actual of PPE etc.
On a different tangent, its interesting just how much the market dislikes OCA. When comparing with other listed RVs it still languishes buy a country mile.
The share price changes of all operators when compared to a pretty stable time a year ago are as follows.
ARV +7%
MET+21%
RYM 0%
SUM+16%
OCA-12%
OCA was pretty out of favour a year ago so its REALLY out of favour now. The upcoming result better be a real shocker to deserve this much disparagement. The market has this one way wrong.
Awesome King1212,Can you let me know where you got that info. That`s exactly what I`ve been looking for, hopefully it also indicates the time frame the $3m cost covers as ARV`s annual result only covers the early few weeks of level 4.
Thanks Beagle for your recent post`s suggestions of extra covid expenses but there are still too many missing parts to be useful such as GOVT extra funding and cost actual of PPE etc.
On a different tangent, its interesting just how much the market dislikes OCA. When comparing with other listed RVs it still languishes buy a country mile.
The share price changes of all operators when compared to a pretty stable time a year ago are as follows.
ARV +7%
MET+21%
RYM 0%
SUM+16%
OCA-12%
OCA was pretty out of favour a year ago so its REALLY out of favour now. The upcoming result better be a real shocker to deserve this much disparagement. The market has this one way wrong.
See Slide 9 ...the costs related to April to June (after financial year end) and something about back to normal now
OCA's care as a percentage of its business model is much higher than Arvida's and OCA reports for the period ended 31 May 2020 which encapsulates the full period of the lockdown and its effects in March, April and May, before we emerged from lockdown in early June. Importantly care suites were deemed an essential service throughout the lockdown.
Taking into account both direct costs and lost profit from inability to sell independent living units, I remain comfortable with my earlier assessment of overall effect $10-15m and nothing in the Arvida analysis has surprised me or caused me to amend my best guess. Importantly we did emerge to level 2 lockdown late in May which will have enabled some independent units to settle before balance date. What I have not accounted for is the slowdown in construction caused by Covid 19.
I remain very cautious about expectations regarding this years underlying profit but its this very thing of a high percentage of care that fills me with so much enthusiasm for the long run as they build heaps more care suites and they churn them every 2-3 years there is such excellent potential for profit growth down the track. This is a long term investment and my caution is those hoping for a quick buck could find themselves frustrated in the short term.
Disc: Holding long term for yield that will grow nicely over the long run.
Last edited by Beagle; 04-07-2020 at 03:19 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul
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