OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

There's a very real chance this is north of $2.00 sometime in 2022 in my opinion...but like all things about the future, time will tell.

[macduffy]

There's a very real chance this is north of $2.00 sometime in 2022 in my opinion...but like all things about the future, time will tell.

I wouldn't attempt to forecast a 2022 shareprice, Beagle, but I reckon you're right in calling OCA a Buy at today's prices.

I hold.

[forest]

[QUOTE=dubya;847118]I posted this link the other day but it was only commented on by one person.
I don't really understand all the jargon (except the then 45% discount and $1.96 valuation ) so thought I would re-post it for any other comments.

Hi dubya, I think that the chance of the growth rate to be higher for longer is far more likely than not. Ryman for instance expect to grow double digits for the foreseeable future.
If OCA grow rate reduces as per yahoo finance forecast I would expect that OCA will have very little need for investment capital.
In case of greatly reduced investment needs the company should have lots of extra cash available for dividend increases.
So I see some uncertainties, either more growth or faster increasing dividends.
OCA looks to me undervalued the question is by how much?

[Waltzing]

the "you who" finance report looked like an auto generated data template not an actual in depth model of a company.

If Mr B is wrong im sure someone with a complex model will let us know prehaps; else i think we can take it as a high probability.

[iceman]

Thanks Mav. That research highlights the high value of apartment developments over the next 2-3 years though so I am taking a medium / long term outlook.
Iceman tells me Nelson real estate has been going gangbusters...and why not, its such a beautiful part of the country.

And that includes retirement villages and senior living. My local sources tell me they’re seeing spectacular price rises and I expect OCA’s margin forecasts for Nelson to be very conservative

[Waltzing]

Yes its looking like a rerun of the GFC but accelerated in time and space , I mean location...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/30/thes...worldwide.html

gosh too much science whatching...

[winner69]

Property prices might be going gung ho in most places but it appears as if prices in Auckland are down over the last 3 months

However, the SuperCity was the weakest performing of the main centres over the three months to September 2020 (down by 0.4%).


https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...corelogic.html

[macduffy]

But Barfoot and Thompson sales hitting new records.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12369746

[Beagle]

But Barfoot and Thompson sales hitting new records.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12369746

"and recorded the highest number of sales in a month since the peak of the last property cycle in 2017". Thanks, volume is very important too as well as price.

[Beagle]

MET takeover a done deal now subject to final takeover panel clearance and high court approval of the scheme implementation agreement. Assuming those approvals are obtained which I think is pretty close to just being formalities I suspect a fair percentage of the takeover proceeds scheduled for late October will find their way back into other companies in the retirement sector including OCA.