They managed to cope last time and they will manage this time. By my estimations OCA broke even during the last quarter of the year when they were affected by the various stages of lockdown.
In simple terms if they're earning about 10 cps underlying this year another lockdown event of a similar magnitude, (if its gets that severe) would mean they will earn about 7 cps this year instead of 10 cps. There may well be irrational selling of some shares tomorrow but before anyone panics think of this. The American market is close to an all time record high despite there being 5 million cases there.
The Australian market is trucking along fine despite the problems in Victoria. OCA can break even during a lockdown because much of its revenue is from Government funded care and the sale of care suites will be unaffected as per last time. Its just three days at this stage and just in Auckland and OCA has facilities throughout N.Z.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
it might not be the last....huge border screening technologies will be required to keep it out.. good luck.. NZ will have to tech this up the ...many millions will have to be spent at the borders... every border..panic in auckland super markets already..
They managed to cope last time and they will manage this time. By my estimations OCA broke even during the last quarter of the year when they were affected by the various stages of lockdown.
In simple terms if they're earning about 10 cps underlying this year another lockdown event of a similar magnitude, (if its gets that severe) would mean they will earn about 7 cps this year instead of 10 cps. There may well be irrational selling of some shares tomorrow but before anyone panics think of this. The American market is close to an all time record high despite there being 5 million cases there.
The Australian market is trucking along fine despite the problems in Victoria. OCA can break even during a lockdown because much of its revenue is from Government funded care and the sale of care suites will be unaffected as per last time. Its just three days at this stage and just in Auckland and OCA has facilities throughout N.Z.
That is marvellous post Beagle. Somes it up well.
If it's the company fundamentals we are thinking of then longer term this is no worries.
If it's the short term share price we are thinking of then IMO this round won't be a fraction as bad as last time. Your points are excellent about overseas indexes setting a good example and we now have our own template of what share prices did last time.
This time round we will have all the sharsies guys leaping in supporting the price with great FOMO after making easy coin last time , they'll not want to miss out round 2.
Also last time we had a loose 300m of shares from MAQs recent sell down which are bedded in this time.
I personally can't see nearly the panic this time happening. Besides , NZ has been back at work 3 months now so the general (employed) population are probably quietly looking forward to a wee lockdown about now.
its the retails that will drop...the FOMO will be over on them..this is a short drop only. Unless ... no idea where it came from? yes right.... i think the family member knows exactly where they have been or they have come into contact will someone at the borders and that mean its on the lose and wild fire...
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Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul
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