Hmmmm. A Ponzi scheme... Legal or not.. All Ponzi schemes end in tears for some one Perc.
Disc. Hold OCA. ARV.
Certainly not for shareholders.
To keep the schemes going, the promoters need to offer excellent security,and care for their residents.Failure to offer superior value will see these schemes end.With the massive tsunami of retirees growing over the next 20 to 30 years, these schemes have huge tail winds.
Not sure where you get the idea OCA "margins are already under pressure" Bull.
Earl commented.... "Sales at our Meadow bank Village have been particularly strong, with all 62 apartments in stage 3 now either sold or under application. less than a year since this stage was completed."
"We have already received presale applications for 13 apartments at the Sands with strong pricing that reflects the high quality of the product."
Page 9- "Bayview" ....Demand for the remaining (21) care suites is expected to be strong.
So now it just comes down to whether Earl is putting a "spin" on things. From every source, including a friend who was very involved with the Macquarie float, I`m hearing that he is first class. So I have no issue trusting his comments.
mav pg 36 in the presentation shows development margins they peaked in 1st half 2018 even though they are still high compared to previous yrs a trend maybe under way.
have to remember oca make a lot of there profit from there development margin.
heres a good news article by a property developer on how costs can easliy blow out your property development
In property development the main thing is - They make money through OPM (other people's money) lol your the partner with them and you get a dividend for your share of the company they get all the development margins, gains on property etc
Don't forget - most of the liabilty is the "interest free" loan Ryman (and other retirement village operators) get from their clientele. This is the payment of which they return 70% (or whatever) after their customers depart. Has nothing to do with banks - no risk for them.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Don't forget - most of the liabilty is the "interest free" loan Ryman (and other retirement village operators) get from their clientele. This is the payment of which they return 70% (or whatever) after their customers depart. Has nothing to do with banks - no risk for them.
For Ryman
Bank loans $1.2 billion
Residents loans $2.6 billion
Cool eh
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Pretty complicated and many just won’t get it .....do you have a simpler more straightforward version?
Some good humor on the thread last couple of days that is much needed what with the SP where it is and all.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
According to analyst Frances Sweetman Milford Private Wealth is investing less in the retirement sector as a reflection of caution about the housing market -- retirement village operators being dependent on houses selling in order for people to buy in their villages.
According to analyst Frances Sweetman Milford Private Wealth is investing less in the retirement sector as a reflection of caution about the housing market -- retirement village operators being dependent on houses selling in order for people to buy in their villages.
Anyone selling their house can afford a care suite or basic OCA appartment.
Anyone selling their house can afford a care suite or basic OCA appartment.
Yes that's the point of difference, OCA's smaller much more affordable care suites that people need. SUM other retirement companies are not so well positioned with predominantly larger units being built on a lifestyle basis if people make the discretionary choice to choose them and only if they can get what they want for their house. RYM even worse off as being massively exposed to the rapidly declining Melbourne market and on a forward PE of more than double OCA. Either of those two would make a good short (in my opinion) for anyone looking to hedge their OCA sector exposure.
Last edited by Beagle; 30-01-2019 at 11:48 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Originally Posted by Ggcc
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