OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[BlackPeter]

Just good raw material for them .....they find investor behaviour intriguing .....esp when many perceive the market to be wrong

Define "wrong" in this context. Market is always right re setting the price even if it is wrong, but it is not very good in pricing the underlying value of a stock.

If it would be, than share prices would not jump around like spring lambs ... value of an organisation rarely jumps around on a daily basis while the share prices does.

That's what I know. What I don't know is whether the market over or undervalues OCA at current, but I think it is more the latter.

[bull....]

201 pages of discussion on a stock less than a year old with high single digit projected growth

Where RYMAN (the bloody A1 in retirement) has 240 pages on here after 15years consistently booming in the industry and on the market.

the difference is the rampers missed the ryman boat and tried to make up for it on oca. so you ended up with 190 pages of ramping on oca and 10 odd pages of balance from bull lol .

anyway the retirement sector had a dreadful week last week performance wise. big things to watch this week are royal commission in australia report to be released tonight this will possibly have ramifications in nz. probably explains the sell off last week in the sector. anyway be back later this arvo lots of study to do earnings season starts in aus this week and nz next week so a busy mth for investors to come

[tuaman]

What is this article about? Can someone explain it since I am not a paid-subscriber. Ta.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/analysis/tax-r...nia-healthcare

[bull....]

What is this article about? Can someone explain it since I am not a paid-subscriber. Ta.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/analysis/tax-r...nia-healthcare

in essence they are talking about what we talking about last week in relation to tax on occupation rights.

heres some

Even with a binding ruling from IRD, Oceania’s accounts still note: “The interpretation of New Zealand tax laws in relation to DMF involves significant judgements and uncertainty.”
To make everything a bit murkier, the IRD won’t release its ruling publicly or even confirm its existence, no matter that Oceania refers to it in its accounts. Riddle me this

https://www.nbr.co.nz/analysis/tax-riddle-oceania-healthcare

[BlackPeter]

Actually - just pulled for fun relevant 2 year trendcharts:

OCA (blue) vs RYM (red)
Attachment 10293

and
OCA (blue) vs SUM (red)
Attachment 10294

What I can read out of them is that the market sees all three of them quite highly correlated ... though its appreciation of OCA did in comparison slightly rise in the 18 months since they started. OCA finishes 5 to 10 % better than RYM or SUM. As well - the OCA dividend yield paid out in 2018 is better than the RYM or SUM dividend yield.

So - if we assume that the market is always right, than it is clearly nonsense to put some of them down and ramp the other(s) up. All the same with a bit higher yield for a bit higher risk.

qed

[winner69]

Define "wrong" in this context. Market is always right re setting the price even if it is wrong, but it is not very good in pricing the underlying value of a stock.

If it would be, than share prices would not jump around like spring lambs ... value of an organisation rarely jumps around on a daily basis while the share prices does.

That's what I know. What I don't know is whether the market over or undervalues OCA at current, but I think it is more the latter.

So the markets probably wrong today


But what do I know ....even though I know that I am intelligent, because I know that I know nothing

[BlackPeter]

So the markets probably wrong oday

How do you measure that?

[Beagle]

Actually - just pulled for fun relevant 2 year trendcharts:

OCA (blue) vs RYM (red)
Attachment 10293

and
OCA (blue) vs SUM (red)
Attachment 10294

What I can read out of them is that the market sees all three of them quite highly correlated ... though its appreciation of OCA did in comparison slightly rise in the 18 months since they started. OCA finishes 5 to 10 % better than RYM or SUM. As well - the OCA dividend yield paid out in 2018 is better than the RYM or SUM dividend yield.

So - if we assume that the market is always right, than it is clearly nonsense to put some of them down and ramp the other(s) up. All the same with a bit higher yield for a bit higher risk.

qed

But you forgot the all important ARV in your analysis who have woefully underperformed all the above in the last 2 years.
OCA have done the best since they listed though. Some would opine that's simply because they listed too cheap and some other dog is best of all but that's like creative accounting and a load of nonsense and a bit like saying if XYZ was ABC then DCE would be QED. All the proof that a dog is exactly that no matter what angle you look at it.
Woof woof.

[winner69]

How do you measure that?

....because you said 'What I don't know is whether the market over or undervalues OCA at current, but I think it is more the latter.'


Suppose I do imply undervalues means wrong

[trader_jackson]

But you forgot the all important ARV in your analysis who have woefully underperformed all the above in the last 2 years.
OCA have done the best since they listed though. Some would opine that's simply because they listed too cheap and some other dog is best of all but that's like creative accounting and a load of nonsense and a bit like saying if XYZ was ABC then DCE would be QED. All the proof that a dog is exactly that no matter what angle you look at it.
Woof woof.

being creative is comparing selected time periods... ARV has done much better than OCA in the past 6 months, but we'll just ignore that and look at the magical 2 year mark... really does depend on the angle you look at it afterall!