OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Maverick]

I NEVER buy/ sell on graph analysis , I haven't got a clue how it even works ,but i must admit that OCA is looking excitedly Ready to crawl upwards now the 30 and 60 day MA have connected.
Just observing in the three times this has happened before in its short lifespan there's been a nice little share price climb.
Its never held the gain, but hey , we are overdue for a little bit of love for us jaundice ( but faithful) share holders.

[BlackPeter]

I NEVER buy/ sell on graph analysis , I haven't got a clue how it even works ,but i must admit that OCA is looking excitedly Ready to crawl upwards now the 30 and 60 day MA have connected.
Just observing in the three times this has happened before in its short lifespan there's been a nice little share price climb.
Its never held the gain, but hey , we are overdue for a little bit of love for us jaundice ( but faithful) share holders.

I never buy / sell solely based on TA ... but anyway - as far as I can see OCA is still below the MA 50 and just touching the MA30 - so probably not a technical buy anyway - unless you assume that the last ripples are turning into an inverted head and shoulders, which they well might ....

But just looking at the graph, there seems to be an interesting correlation to SUM other share, which actually just broke out of the trading channel (SUM-blue, OCA-red/yellowish).

Attachment 10370

Maybe somebody accumulating / shorting here as well? Makes you wonder whether OCA is next to follow the breakout?

[couta1]

Too hard to call as most indicators pointing downwards except for bollie bands moving closer together but last time the SP dropped when that occurred, not that any of it matters for long termers.

[Beagle]

I never buy / sell solely based on TA ... but anyway - as far as I can see OCA is still below the MA 50 and just touching the MA30 - so probably not a technical buy anyway - unless you assume that the last ripples are turning into an inverted head and shoulders, which they well might ....

But just looking at the graph, there seems to be an interesting correlation to SUM other share, which actually just broke out of the trading channel (SUM-blue, OCA-red/yellowish).

Attachment 10370

Maybe somebody accumulating / shorting here as well? Makes you wonder whether OCA is next to follow the breakout?

Interesting correlation but for mine SUM exceeded expectations whereas OCA only just met my minimum expectations when it reported recently.
Possibly some OCA shareholders switching some of their capital to a more proven performer trading on ostensibly a very similar forward PE but not only better more proven performance over a much longer period of time, also much better looking TA.
I would who might be doing SUM portfolio reallocation in this sector

[winner69]

Maverick last forecast was $75m underlying earnings for F19

That deserves a share price over $1.25

[Beagle]

$50-$60m underlying profit is my call depending a lot of timing of sell down of developments scheduled for completion in May 2019. Should see much better profit growth in FY20 in my opinion. What we learned from SUM's most recent announcement is its one thing to "deliver", (industry jargon for achieve practical completion and council sign off), and actually sell and deliver them to customers and this is very much an issue when developments are completed in the last month of a companies financial year. What it means is the underlying profit will mostly be delivered in the following financial year but IFRS profit will look good because the completed development will be valued at market value, (capture all the development margin in the month of completion)...assuming the developments are actually completed in May 2019. Company says developments are on track for delivery in May which is encouraging but sometimes things get delayed at the last minute so there's always some obvious risk with late Q4 development timing.

[winner69]

$50-$60m underlying profit is my call depending a lot of timing of sell down of developments scheduled for completion in May 2019. Should see much better profit growth in FY20 in my opinion. What we learned from SUM's most recent announcement is its one thing to "deliver", (industry jargon for achieve practical completion and council sign off), and actually sell and deliver them to customers and this is very much an issue when developments are completed in the last month of a companies financial year. What it means is the underlying profit will mostly be delivered in the following financial year but IFRS profit will look good because the completed development will be valued at market value, (capture all the development margin in the month of completion)...assuming the developments are actually completed in May 2019. Company says developments are on track for delivery in May which is encouraging but sometimes things get delayed at the last minute so there's always some obvious risk with late Q4 development timing.

Timing and accounting treatment of sales interesting ....and not that straight forward

Like $17.7m of cash received in H119 (Cash Flow Statement) for sales recognised in FY18 (in underlying earnings)

No wonder you were so excited with that astounding increased in OCA’s cash flow

[Beagle]

Tough set of accounts to get one's head around. (polar opposite to HLG) Maybe if they start doing those bridge graph presentations that will make things easier to understand ?

[Maverick]

Maverick last forecast was $75m underlying earnings for F19

That deserves a share price over $1.25

I would like to revise that 75 million profit down a lot Winner. I've had the time and got plenty of motivation to really dig through the last report. (By no means a small excersize)
I'm picking a fy profit of 64.5 million. However the actual reported profit could be anywhere between 50-65 million. The profit variance is so wide because 31 million of that profit will come from second half sales. Who knows how much of that profit will actually end up in FY 2019. (over the medium term it doesn't matter because the profit will still be there, it will just appear split between fy 2019 and Fy 2020) As Beagle has nicely explained earlier and SUM just gave a great recent example of this.
So my forward PE Calc on OCA is about the same as my forward PE calc on SUM at 11. Again, the PE could appear higher as some of this profit is transferred into fy2020.


Two things to mention here when comparing value of the two companies is that OCAs forward PE will be reality in 2.5 months compared to SUM in 8.5 months. The speed at which these organisms grow at , makes this a valid consideration.
The second point is that OCA’s higher churn rate and distinctive care suit offerings will assist OCA in getting larger and faster growing reoccurring DMF income as opposed to SUM’s higher dependence on property margins and resales.(but SUM also has solidly growing DMF income too)
Right now I do like Beagles mix of 50/50 between the 2 companies, but overall , I like OCAs future even more than SUM.It will end up less property centric with a faster growing recurring income steam. Plus my time horizon is five to ten years.
And like Couta has stated, I too am drawn to their strong focus on offering a first class care service.

[bull....]

my the big sellers are hiding in every corner ready to pounce