OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[777]

They who try to ramp.

[Maverick]

Today is an interesting day as its Wellington anniversary, so half the country is watching Netflix's right now. So all NZSX turnover is pretty insipid. So I was interested to watch OCA turnover past 12.00 pm today when the Aussys start up. Then Boom, right on queue the OCA turnover goes through the roof while the other NZ stocks idle along.
So it's clear to me that Aussies are driving the selling, but what this means and how to benefit from it is beyond me. (apart from waiting them out )
Anyway , a good friend has recommended "call of duty" on Netflix so Im of to watch that.
Can't wait till Friday.

[Beagle]

Today is an interesting day as its Wellington anniversary, so half the country is watching Netflix's right now. So all NZSX turnover is pretty insipid. So I was interested to watch OCA turnover past 12.00 pm today when the Aussys start up. Then Boom, right on queue the OCA turnover goes through the roof while the other NZ stocks idle along.
So it's clear to me that Aussies are driving the selling, but what this means and how to benefit from it is beyond me. (apart from waiting them out )
Anyway , a good friend has recommended "call of duty" on Netflix so Im of to watch that.
Can't wait till Friday.

May I presume you've watched all of the Homeland series already ? If not, my goodness you're in for a treat and some serious binge watching.

[minimoke]

Today is an interesting day as its Wellington anniversary, so half the country is watching Netflix's right now. So all NZSX turnover is pretty insipid. So I was interested to watch OCA turnover past 12.00 pm today when the Aussys start up. Then Boom, right on queue the OCA turnover goes through the roof while the other NZ stocks idle along.
So it's clear to me that Aussies are driving the selling, but what this means and how to benefit from it is beyond me.
Anyway , a good friend has recommended "call of duty" on Netflix so Im of to watch that.
Can't wait till Friday.

First sale at 12:18 for 300 shares at $1.10
Next at 13:13 for 15,000 at $1.10
Then a big slab of 250,000 at 13:25 for $1.10.

I'm not sure you can attribute that to the Ozzies. The important part of NZ isnt lolling about! And we still have internet access on our public holidays.)

[trader_jackson]

Maybe won't be $1.15 come friday, in fact might only be $1.13 in 12 months some say... Fake-News-Forsyth reckon underlying profit is only gonna be up 3% on 1H18 (1.8% on an EPS basis)... jeez I hope they are wrong, they are going to have to have an

unbelievable 2nd half to live up to Beagle telling the 2 or 3 people that read the ARV thread annually that OCA are having 17% underlying EPS growth

(ARV had underlying EPS growth of 17% at half year - about 10x higher than Fake-News-Forsyth are forecasting for OCA, yet, in fact, ARV trades on VERY similar valuation metrics)

[Ggcc]

I don’t expect the dividend to increase as you will see that analysts expect the dividend to be the same as last year. They also expect income (net profit) to drop slightly, maybe due to property revaluations. It is 2020 onward that is exciting

[minimoke]

An alternative view for the Stuff article the other week.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/110049317/many-kiwis-satisfied-with-retirement-village-life

[Beagle]

Last year they paid out 55% of underlying profit as dividends and I am expecting a very similar payout percentage this year which in my opinion will take total dividends for the year to 6-7 cps mostly weighted towards the second half. I think this has great potential as a dividend yield share with strong growth in underlying earnings in the years ahead which makes this a unique proposition in this sector, (highest dividend yield by quite some margin over ARV).

[silverblizzard888]

Generally quite a healthy area to be in since its constant growth for this sector.

On a dividend basis Oceania is definitely by far the highest.
Ryman 21.7 cents per share up (2018) from 18.8 cents per share (2017) Share price $11.11 = dividend return 1.95% , dividend growth 15.4%
Summerset 13.1 cents per share up (2018) from 9 cents per share (2017) Share price $6.43 = dividend return 2.03% , dividend growth 45.5%
Metlifecare 10 cents per share up (2018) from 8.05 cents per share (2017) Share price $5.37 = dividend return 1.86%, dividend growth 24.2%
Arvida 5.31 cents per share up (2018) from 4.55 cents per share (2017) Share price $1.33 = dividend return 3.99%, dividend growth 16.7%
Oceania 4.7 cents per share up (2018) from n/a cents per share (2017) Share price $1.10 = dividend return 4.27%

Arvida and Oceania are definitely leading as the dividend payers for sure, but the dividend growth on prior year matters too especially if you consider it an income generating investment for the long term.

12 month share price performance:
Ryman : 2.87%
Summerset : 18.01%
Metlifecare : -12.11%
Arvida : 3.1%
Oceania : 5.77%

Combined 12 month dividend and capital return:
Ryman : 2.87% + 1.95% = 4.82%
Summerset : 18.01% +2.03% = 20.04%
Metlifecare : -12.11% + 1.86% = -10.25%
Arvida : 3.1% + 3.99% = 7.09%
Oceania : 5.77% + 4.27 % = 10.04%

Most balanced return goes to Oceania on dividends and capital growth.
Best return goes to Summerset

Interesting way to look at everything. Summerset definitely benefits from the upsize dividend growth, and Oceania from a high dividend payout. If Oceania can show a consistent growth track record then the share price is significantly undervalued compared to the rest. Lets see how this plays out on friday.

[bull....]

as per last report expecting plenty of re valuation gains and very good cash flow from there care suite conversions