OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

I accumulated more this morning. I think they are very conservative.

At first glance the standout for me is the way they have highlighted the strongly growing yield in the years ahead. Investors are going to be increasingly well paid as they enjoy ongoing strong growth in the years ahead. I'll share some more thoughts when I've digested the full report.

[Cyclical]

From May 20 report
Sorry the copy and paste has jumbled the bal sheet Ive highlighted the 2 amounts about 64k shy of 1.5bill

Consolidated Balance SheetAs at 31 May 2020$NZ000’s Notes May 2020 May 2019AssetsCash and cash equivalents 17,624 22,762Trade and other receivables 5.3 41,630 43,541Investment property 3.1 947,800 881,674Property, plant and equipment 3.2 489,990 442,709Right of use assets 3.4 40,822 -Intangible assets 5.2 10,830 8,668Total assets 1,548,696 1,399,354LiabilitiesTrade and other payables 5.4 34,831 38,565Derivative financial instruments 5.6 10,484 2,443Deferred management fee 3.3 34,344 27,002Refundable occupation right agreements 3.3 535,370 436,481Right of use liabilities 3.4 13,001 -Borrowings 4.4 325,454 270,159Deferred tax liabilities 5.1 - 14,825Total liabilities 953,484 789,475Net assets 595,212 609,879EquityContributed equity 4.1 588,389 580,794Retained deficit (155,907) (110,060)Reserves 162,730 139,145Total equity 595,212 609,879

Righto, finally had a proper look at this one...struggled to see the wood through the trees, have reformatted below. You're right though, in my small mindedness, I was thinking NTA, not actual assets, so there is merit in what you are saying, such is the beauty of leverage...when it works in your favour. Quite what the property component of property, plant and equipment is, I don't know (Mav or Beagle probably know that off the top of their heads), but certainly the next results should see a nice bump up off the back of revaluations.

Consolidated Balance Sheet
As at 31 May 2020
$NZ000’s Notes May 2020 May 2019


Assets
Cash and cash equivalents 17,624 22,762
Trade and other receivables 5.3 41,630 43,541
Investment property 3.1 947,800 881,674
Property, plant and equipment 3.2 489,990 442,709
Right of use assets 3.4 40,822 -Intangible assets 5.2 10,830 8,668
Total assets 1,548,696 1,399,354


Liabilities
Trade and other payables 5.4 34,831 38,565
Derivative financial instruments 5.6 10,484 2,443
Deferred management fee 3.3 34,344 27,002
Refundable occupation right agreements 3.3 535,370 436,481
Right of use liabilities 3.4 13,001 -Borrowings 4.4 325,454 270,159
Deferred tax liabilities 5.1 - 14,825
Total liabilities 953,484 789,475


Net assets 595,212 609,879
EquityContributed equity 4.1 588,389 580,794
Retained deficit (155,907) (110,060)
Reserves 162,730 139,145
Total equity 595,212 609,879

[bull....]

looking good looking good

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...710/326865.pdf

I believe CBRE valuation assumptions for their values taken as at 30 April 2020 were extremely conservative, (taken in the middle of the Covid crisis lockdown) and have proved to be grossly inaccurate. Their NAV at that time was $1.10 and I believe this figure materially misstates the likely NAV as at the current date. I believe subsequent real estate data and highly profitable trading since then is likely to mean the NAV is currently ~ $1.20 perhaps even more and I note all other sector companies (excluding MET) are trading at a substantial premium to their asset backing.

I also note OCA has the highest development margins in the industry and has a focus on very high value apartments in the next few years, has the highest dividend yield, the cheapest forward PE and has an excellent outlook for earnings and dividend growth in the years ahead.

My #1 investment position.

[bull....]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...710/326865.pdf

I believe CBRE valuation assumptions for their values taken as at 30 April 2020 were extremely conservative, (taken in the middle of the Covid crisis lockdown) and have proved to be grossly inaccurate. Their NAV at that time was $1.10 and I believe this figure materially misstates the likely NAV as at the current date. I believe subsequent real estate data and highly profitable trading since then is likely to mean the NAV is currently ~ $1.20 perhaps even more and I note all other sector companies (excluding MET) are trading at a substantial premium to their asset backing.

I also note OCA has the highest development margins in the industry and has a focus on very high value apartments in the next few years. I also note OCA has the highest dividend yield in the industry, the cheapest forward PE in the industry and has an excellent outlook for earning sand dividend growth in the year ahead.

technicals looking strong at the moment too

[Maverick]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...710/326865.pdf

I believe CBRE valuation assumptions for their values taken as at 30 April 2020 were extremely conservative, (taken in the middle of the Covid crisis lockdown) and have proved to be grossly inaccurate. Their NAV at that time was $1.10 and I believe this figure materially misstates the likely NAV as at the current date. I believe subsequent real estate data and highly profitable trading since then is likely to mean the NAV is currently ~ $1.20 perhaps even more and I note all other sector companies (excluding MET) are trading at a substantial premium to their asset backing.

I also note OCA has the highest development margins in the industry and has a focus on very high value apartments in the next few years, has the highest dividend yield, the cheapest forward PE and has an excellent outlook for earnings and dividend growth in the years ahead.

My #1 investment position.

Just a wee note of caution there Beagle, while they currently have the highest margin they have been clear that the 30%+ new sales margin they have been achieving has all been Auckland based. As they sell down this year and the next, a good portion will be in Nelson and Christchurch where they are expecting only a 15% margin (so an average overall of about 25% looking ahead)
While I use the numbers they provide I`ve got a sneaky feeling with property NZ wide going like it is at the moment they will surprise us to the upside.
but as far as the other positives you point out....100% agree.

[Beagle]

Thanks Mav. That research highlights the high value of apartment developments over the next 2-3 years though so I am taking a medium / long term outlook.
Iceman tells me Nelson real estate has been going gangbusters...and why not, its such a beautiful part of the country.

[WAIKEN]

Thanks Cyclical for reformatting that balance sheet.
If we get residential property inflation of 10 % say by 31.12.21 then I am surmising we will get around a 0.25 lift in NTA.
I have spoken to someone involved in the retirement Village industry who said as older residential property owners home values inflate they are willing to pay more for a villa or apartment in a village. I assume there isn't such a direct correlation with care beds.

[dubya]

I posted this link the other day but it was only commented on by one person.
I don't really understand all the jargon (except the then 45% discount and $1.96 valuation ) so thought I would re-post it for any other comments.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-undervaluing-oceania-healthcare-limited-203231231.html

[Waltzing]

Has the market been reading the remarks here of Mr B and that expert on OCA Mav and we are not going to get our chance in 12 to 24 months time to load up.

LTA - long term anticipation has arrived?

glad we got a few, but far to little for the tide of money coming soon from term deposits prehaps.. ARG climbing , GMT ect. Its all property after all.

a 2 to 3 dollars stock in 5 years time? or it that very conservative after all the GFC left a 5 year gap world wide for markets to get back on there feet. I cant remember the global numbers after all i thought apart from a war that we had had our once in a 50 year global melt down... apparently not!

If the person known as MAV is correct on this stock prehaps the board should invite that shareholder all expenses paid to the AGM each year as the share price reflects his professional presentations on this forum promotes the stock better than the board.