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  1. #2911
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onion View Post
    An item on the RNZ Business News this morning...

    https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/p...-30-march-2019

    Listen at 2:12 and more specifically at 3:30.

    According to analyst Frances Sweetman Milford Private Wealth is investing less in the retirement sector as a reflection of caution about the housing market -- retirement village operators being dependent on houses selling in order for people to buy in their villages.
    Anyone selling their house can afford a care suite or basic OCA appartment.

  2. #2912
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Anyone selling their house can afford a care suite or basic OCA appartment.
    Yes that's the point of difference, OCA's smaller much more affordable care suites that people need. SUM other retirement companies are not so well positioned with predominantly larger units being built on a lifestyle basis if people make the discretionary choice to choose them and only if they can get what they want for their house. RYM even worse off as being massively exposed to the rapidly declining Melbourne market and on a forward PE of more than double OCA. Either of those two would make a good short (in my opinion) for anyone looking to hedge their OCA sector exposure.
    Last edited by Beagle; 30-01-2019 at 10:48 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #2913
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Yes that's the point of difference, OCA's smaller much more affordable care suites that people need. SUM other retirement companies are not so well positioned with predominantly larger units being made on a lifestyle basis if people want them and only if they can get what they want for their house. RYM even worse off massively exposed to the rapidly declining Melbourne market and on a forward PE of more than double OCA. Either of those two would make a good short (in my opinion) for anyone looking to hedge their OCA sector exposure.
    Anyone selling their house in Melbourne should be able to buy TWO [or more] Ryman units.

    PS Craigs research today have upgraded OCA to BUY with a target price of $1.24.
    Last edited by percy; 30-01-2019 at 10:50 AM.

  4. #2914
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Anyone selling their house in Melbourne should be able to buy TWO [or more] Ryman units.
    Sorry Percy I find that very difficult to accept at face value. Perhaps you could provide some evidence to support your contention such as the average price of a RYM unit in the suburb in question and the average price of a house in said suburb. The normal ratio is about 75% unit to house and if the value of the house has declined 10% the margin is getting thin for said discretionary choice.

    This was certainly not the case for my parents nine years ago with the RYM facility at Orewa. The price of a nice 2 bedroom unit was almost exactly the same as their stand alone two bedroom home. To suggest that RYM's units are dirt cheap as a blanket statement compared to the surrounding suburbs is not something I have seen as being a realistic claim.

    Good that Craigs can see the wood for the trees. What's their rating on RYM and SUM if you don't mind sharing ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 30-01-2019 at 10:57 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  5. #2915
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Yes that's the point of difference, OCA's smaller much more affordable care suites that people need. SUM other retirement companies are not so well positioned with predominantly larger units being built on a lifestyle basis if people make the discretionary choice to choose them and only if they can get what they want for their house. RYM even worse off as being massively exposed to the rapidly declining Melbourne market and on a forward PE of more than double OCA. Either of those two would make a good short (in my opinion) for anyone looking to hedge their OCA sector exposure.
    What!

    Surely there's no need to hedge one's exposure to OCA?



    I hold - from the IPO.

  6. #2916
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post

    Good that Craigs can see the wood for the trees. What's their rating on RYM and SUM if you don't mind sharing ?
    RYM,"Core" "Neutral" target price $10.55
    SUM."Supplementary" "Neutral" target price $8.10.


    PS.I do not remember any broker "being right" in this sector.

  7. #2917
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    RYM,"Core" "Neutral" target price $10.55
    SUM."Supplementary" "Neutral" target price $8.10.


    PS.I do not remember any broker "being right" in this sector.
    Lol your right there, that SUM target must be a 3 yr one.

  8. #2918
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Lol your right there, that SUM target must be a 3 yr one.

    ......like the OCA one
    “Imagination is more important than knowledge.”

  9. #2919
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ......like the OCA one
    No mate the Couta ratio says OCA already worth $1.24 relative to the SUM closing price, SUM really only worth around $5.20 currently in that case.

  10. #2920
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    is this the end of oca , sum rym arv and met profit grab , probably half there stock prices if it gain traction i reckon

    A new retirement village operator is promising residents capital gain on their units

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110...on-their-units
    bull

  11. #2921
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    is this the end of oca , sum rym arv and met profit grab , probably half there stock prices if it gain traction i reckon

    A new retirement village operator is promising residents capital gain on their units

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110...on-their-units
    LOL Halve their value...more Bull from the bear.
    The devil will be in the detail. You can't get something for nothing. I would expect their weekly fees will be a lot higher...people have to pay for the services one way or the other. I bet the directors of OCA, RYM, SUM ARV and MET are quaking in their boots lol
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  12. #2922
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    Another VHP Vital Healthcare Property Trust type "management control" fiasco in the making.

  13. #2923
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    Good business angle when we're entering era of static or dropping prices

  14. #2924
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    is this the end of oca , sum rym arv and met profit grab , probably half there stock prices if it gain traction i reckon

    A new retirement village operator is promising residents capital gain on their units

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110...on-their-units
    Yeah right, just a small fish trying to swim in a large tank, continuum of care is almost non existent to boot.

  15. #2925
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    Yeap...I suspect some people who have a short attention span and didn't even make it through the whole article to read the last bit
    "But 90 per cent of older people choosing a retirement village - about 40,000 people - did so for the bundle of services provided, especially access to health care which provided peace of mind. For a certain section of older people the capital gain would be a drawcard".

    They will be a small niche player and I predict they will charge like wounded bulls for very limited services and activities because if they're not getting their profit through capital gains they're getting it though milking oldies for all they're worth with weekly management fees.
    Last edited by Beagle; 30-01-2019 at 10:15 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

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