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  1. #6501
    Membaa
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    Quote Originally Posted by Panda-NZ- View Post
    Rising tax free house prices = good for OCA but the costs seem to be a bit out of control currently.
    The revaluation when it comes will favour a re-rate as it becomes clear how wrong the devaluation was prior to last results.

    Not sure what you’re on about costs? Costs of what?

  2. #6502
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    There's pretty much all of the expenses for this increasing by CPI times 3-4. Though it won't be an issue if they can bring the revenue which can cover it.

    2019 FY:
    Revenue down nearly 10%
    Expenses +20%

    Maybe something of a track record is starting to be shown.
    Last edited by Panda-NZ-; 20-09-2020 at 02:15 AM.

  3. #6503
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Panda-NZ- View Post
    There's pretty much all of the expenses for this increasing by CPI times 3-4. Though it won't be an issue if they can bring the revenue which can cover it.

    2019 FY:
    Revenue down nearly 10%
    Expenses +20%

    Maybe something of a track record is starting to be shown.
    Actually - I don't think you pay attention.

    There are in this thread plenty of posts explaining the OCA model ... Maveric explained the process at various times. Yes, on the way morphing old shabby old peoples homes in prime locations to top quality retirement villas there are times when you need to double up staff and run with less efficiency. While you empty an old building and move the residents into their new build housings you need to basically work with double staff and half efficiency. A temporary increase of the cost structure is inevitable and expected. Most people would call this investment :

    This is what we currently are seeing, but (reading their reports) it sounds they reached inflection point.

    Note: While linear interpolations are always easy, they are often wrong unless you understand the underlying model.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  4. #6504
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    "While linear interpolations are always easy, they are often wrong unless you understand the underlying model." BlackPeter

    economic poetry, that is what a great line like that is

  5. #6505
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    I for one hope MR M is right as there are some very fine shareholders and im sure some very fine residents. The next 24 months should throw some light on the model.

  6. #6506
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/23...September+2020

    Looking forward to hearing how things are tracking in FY21 at 2.00 p.m.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #6507
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/23...September+2020

    Looking forward to hearing how things are tracking in FY21 at 2.00 p.m.
    Whenever I see an oceania preso I think of Elvis
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #6508
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    What the property market is doing shouldn’t matter to Oceania. The revered Liz keeps reminding us that they are a needs based business (in throes of transformation) and that’s what drive the story and hence value
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #6509
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    What the property market is doing shouldn’t matter to Oceania. The revered Liz keeps reminding us that they are a needs based business (in throes of transformation) and that’s what drive the story and hence value
    Most people have to sell their house to move into an OCA unit so price matters as does how easy it is to sell and in the long run if the average unit in an OCA village is say 60% of the average price of a house in the surrounding area and OCA are engaging in brownfields developments where they are more efficiently using existing land facilities for their developments that augers very well for future development margins, (which are already the highest in this sector and look likely to stay that way).

    As Maverick kindly reminded us a while back not only are OCA building a lot of premium care suites but they're also going to be developing a lot of premium apartments over the next few years. Sands is a good example of what's coming.
    Last edited by Beagle; 24-09-2020 at 09:21 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #6510
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    Not directly related to Oceania but I can tell a story of a couple that visited several retirement & lifestyle villages here in Nelson 3-4 weeks ago. Found the one they liked which was at the high end and expensive. Put their home on the market and sold within a week. Went back to retirement village to sign a contract only to find the price had gone up $ 100,000. Yes that's right, + $ 100,000, from $750k to $850k in a lifestyle (+55 yo) village.

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