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  1. #3311
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I’ve read there stuff, read stuff on here, read other stuff, talked to an Oceania guy, done a fair bit of modelling and still can’t see it.

    Yes next year might be better than this year and all that but not to the extent some people ar3 saying.

    I have an issue with the sales price trends but even though i’ve sort of worked out why but to me it just doesn’t make sense they can have 52 more sales and make about the same in underlying profit (and heaps less at Comprehensive Income level)

    So in the meantime I will remain as one of the majority (who are rather dumb) and not one of the clever few who understand what they present.

    Hoping it all comes right one day ...really hoping
    I think you will find wide agreement that they could improve on making their numbers easier to digest ...

    Maybe a question for the next AGM?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #3312
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Default Obfuscate

    Maybe seeing as they're running homes for the bewildered they think they should keep shareholders in the same state lol
    https://www.bing.com/search?q=obfusc...&setlang=en-US

    Also rather opaque, (which requires more sniff the breeze and take a guess at least from this dog) is exactly how many of the units being delivered in 2H FY19 will actually be delivered to incoming residents before balance date and how many are delivered into finished stock. Its all about as clear as some of those Rotorua mud pools. Literally you can get a range for underlying profit from $40m to $70m depending upon how many units are signed and sold before balance date. I think its more likely in the middle of that range $50m to $60m but frankly I think its anyone's guess.

    I think the main thing to concentrate on while we travel this long journey is that the projects are on time and on budget as confirmed by the company in its late January 2019 presentation. This is no easy thing in the Auckland construction market, just ask Fletcher executives lol

    The profit from these new units will happen, its just a matter of which year. Those selling at 99 cents look like they may be capitulating but who knows where this goes in the short term.
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-03-2019 at 04:13 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #3313
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Not that it would matter for investors ... however - SP closed today 2 cents (at 101) above the days LOW (at 99) with quite good overall depth.

    I take this as a good sign.

    Might be last opportunity to buy OCA close to $1 ;
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  4. #3314
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    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    I think some risks are overlooked a little on this thread. Mainly the staff levels, there are 2550 staff at OCA who in total look after 3600 residents. The seems like a lot of staff and like most of us they all want more money!

    Regardless $1 does seem like decent buying so I've joined the hype and purchased decent sized holding today.
    Just quietly I thinks that's why you'll find the development of AI & robotics is moving v quickly in this industry at the moment. (Not in the interface directly with the patient or resident, but in the supporting roles a step or two back) . Within a couple of years this could be a game changer in terms of costs.

  5. #3315
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Not that it would matter for investors ... however - SP closed today 2 cents (at 101) above the days LOW (at 99) with quite good overall depth.

    I take this as a good sign.

    Might be last opportunity to buy OCA close to $1 ;
    Always good to finish above the open and the days low ...must be a candle name for that but at least not an abandoned baby one

    The tide has turned ....back to 120 before we know it

    Be a bit happier at that price as I wasn’t one of the lucky ones who took a punt at the ipo or in the 80s. Punting does work sometimes.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #3316
    …just try’n to manage expectations… Maverick's Avatar
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    ok, I`m going to call that...... another irregular huge off market transfer gone through, boom. Seen this a bit lately , so the way I see it is that the sp is being manipulated down on market ( it defies any logic at $1) to set up the buy price for these significant off market trades to go through at.
    Last edited by Maverick; 20-03-2019 at 12:27 PM.

  7. #3317
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    ok, I`m going to call that...... another huge off market transfer gone through, boom. Seen this a bit lately , so the way I see it is that the sp is being manipulated down on market ( it defies any logic at $1) to set up the buy price for these significant off market trades to through at.
    Always a good opportunity for retail investors to buy more. I don't think retail investors are in general disadvantaged compared to the big boys ... it is just that many don't seize the opportunities when they are around.

    Discl: holding lots;
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  8. #3318
    …just try’n to manage expectations… Maverick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Always a good opportunity for retail investors to buy more. I don't think retail investors are in general disadvantaged compared to the big boys ... it is just that many don't seize the opportunities when they are around.

    Discl: holding lots;
    Completely agree BP, so now we have a wide gap between the next sellers up for grabs. The normal sized pile at $1.02 and nothing else until $1.05.
    So if the off market guy has completed his operation then the price will rapidly rise north. But if he has more jiggery-pokery then we can expect a huge pile to appear for sale at $1.03 to keep a lid on things.....lets see what happens next....oooooh so interesting.

  9. #3319
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    A down day ......we don’t have an abandoned baby candle pattern forming do we? Very bearish.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #3320
    Membaa
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    A down day ......we don’t have an abandoned baby candle pattern forming do we? Very bearish.
    That's right, we don't. The chart is definitely bear, but tossing out spooky candle names that are just plain wrong, might not be helping us understand what the chart is saying.

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