OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

One year is where im focused atm so im waiting for a far better opp to top up at decent discount. the price you pay makes the difference between a very good investment and an ordinary one. Happy with my 79c average atp, its been that very good investment due to the entry price point..

Fair enough. Plenty of investors were very happy to partake in the recent placement at $1.10. Must say I am a little surprised you didn't. I doubled down. Don't forget that between the time Quadrant sold their first stake in SUM and the second two months later the price went up 18%. $1.14 when they announced the first placement plus 18% = $1.345. History never repeats does it, especially when the fundamentals are so much more attractive in this instance...percentage gains are one thing, the size of the bat you use to hit the ball is another

[Bjauck]

I think this late stage care is worth continuously looking at. Seems to me (so I must do more research) that we are living longer and a combination of better nutrition, better housing and better healthcare / drugs will see us all living longer. But not necessarily better. Theres a train load of senior care having left the station and as each year goes by more passengers get on than get off. And those tracks lead to only one place - increased demand for senior care with dignity.

i would say that NZ is becoming a more disparate nation from rich to poor as far as both longevity, housing, nutrition and standard of living is concerned. More expensive medical treatments, gadgets and over the counter medications could make it more so in the future.

The average life expectancy may be rising but likely masks a static life expectancy for the lower middle income/wealth cohorts and a drop for the poorer wealth cohorts.

What would this mean for senior care? Perhaps not much for the next 15 odd years but after that there may well be more seniors who have not been able to buy their own housing and who have not had healthy nutrition and adequate dental care. They may well have a need for intensive care at an earlier age and perhaps for longer even if they may not have as long a life as their wealthier peers.

For example, with poor nutrition, adult onset diabetes in the young is becoming prevalent these days. So many senior afflictions present themselves in more middle-aged adults, some of whom may consequently need long-term care. Will the more "down-market" providers bear the brunt of this? Will the government continue to squeeze adequate funding for long term care?

The benefits of medical advancements and nutrition etc may not be shared as evenly as may have been the case in the post WW2 decades.

[Joshuatree]

I think many of us can agree OCA is good place to be a holder in and that size doesn't matter and its human nature that some folks think their's is bigger than others until the tide goes out. Oceania tide is always coming in, good place to set a net ehh.

[Beagle]

I think this late stage care is worth continuously looking at. Seems to me (so I must do more research) that we are living longer and a combination of better nutrition, better housing and better healthcare / drugs will see us all living longer. But not necessarily better. Theres a train load of senior care having left the station and as each year goes by more passengers get on than get off. And those tracks lead to only one place - increased demand for senior care with dignity.

Yes mate its pretty sad for those that have to accept the minimum standard that the Govt will fund living in some 12-14 sq metre room with no on-suite. I think OCA are extremely well position to provide a decent living environment and very good care to go with it. I think the whole care suite model is fantastic. Moving into a lovely ~ 30 sq meter unit with its own kitchenette and bathroom and never having to move again...and as ones needs change they can have anything from simple assistance with meals and cleaning morph into full hospital or dementia care right in their own unit without having to move again. Can't get better than that and yes JT, a great place to set a net as the tide comes in for the next 20-30 years. Hopefully this hound lives long enough to see full tide

[Baa_Baa]

I think this late stage care is worth continuously looking at. Seems to me (so I must do more research) that we are living longer and a combination of better nutrition, better housing and better healthcare / drugs will see us all living longer. But not necessarily better. Theres a train load of senior care having left the station and as each year goes by more passengers get on than get off. And those tracks lead to only one place - increased demand for senior care with dignity.

If you really want to get the inside knowledge, to do the research, pop down to your local late stage care provider and volunteer your services.

Read to them, talk to them, play them music (you'd ace that), organise the annual fund raiser or hold a stall, drive the outings van, engage with the people, wheel the infirmed around, feed them at dinner time, wipe their mouths, brush their hair, take them shopping or to the toilet, make them feel like a person despite their cognitive or physical state, console them when a loved resident passes, support the families of residents. there's heaps you can do … feel the love and give it back.

It's only direct experience that will truely provide the insights into people's end of life pathways and the the care they deserve and get. It will also enamour one to those who choose the profession, the skills they have from the nurses to the drug dispensary to the home manager, the kitchen, the cleaners and everything involved in caring for our elderly who can no longer care for themselves.

For me it was by association to be involved but getting involved was the most cathartic experience of my life so far and one that formed the basis of my investment decisions in this sector.

[minimoke]

If you really want to get the inside knowledge, to do the research, pop down to your local late stage care provider and volunteer your services.

………...
For me it was by association to be involved but getting involved was the most cathartic experience of my life so far and one that formed the basis of my investment decisions in this sector.

Semi ditto on my part. Spent enough time in these places to know what I am prepared to invest in. (Theres more than one way at looking at expenditure and dividends)

[Joshuatree]

Great post compassion and ,"doing" there Baa Baa.
I visit a relative regularly in a dementia ward and have learnt to engage and talk , joke etc with others there as equals. Some appear to have few visits and whether they are "with"it or seemingly not even just acknowledging them with a greeting, respect and eye contact makes a difference. Thanks for sharing and caring.

[value_investor]

I've slowly been deploying more cash to this but still holding out a little bit more. Admittedly, I'm not one for the daily price movements.

I think what we've learnt so far is that the company is dedicated to a certain model and has competencies in what it does providing more "care" and less of just selling retirement units and that is its point of difference. Its more about now proving it to us as investors with consistently good results, ie. can this deliver on a RYM or a SUM?

I'd like to see going forward how that translate to growth in underlying profit and more importantly EPS numbers. It seems its value for now is very much undecided by the market on the whole. I like how management are also buying into this in what is large quantities which is awesome.

We are still very early in the long game that is the retirement sector. I don't think the real game has started yet, when there is critical mass for demand of the services a company such as OCA provides. The aging population and the resulting effect is like a snowball gathering momentum on the top of a large hill. We're still waiting for it to fall but we all know it will.

[Blue Skies]

Agreed, great post Baa Baa. Having had several relatives spend their final years in these homes, know well what a huge difference regular frequent visits & proper engagement (as opposed to scrolling through emails/ news feeds etc on the phone with one eye on the clock) can make to their residents. For all of us, but especially the elderly, having something to look forward to is so important, it's the frequent small joys in life that lift our spirits, rather than the v occasional large one.

Recently 2 friends in their early 60's tragically have had strokes (over 9000/ year in NZ, & that's increasing with ageing pop) & in an instant have gone from normal busy lives, to severely disabled beyond the capabilities of their partners to cope with on their own. In both cases they're now looking at selling the family home & moving to an assisted living home like OCA & rebuilding their lives. It's tragic but without places like OCA with the services they can provide, life would be pretty desperate.
(On that note, know the signs of stroke, fast attention is critical to outcomes)

[Maverick]

Are my eyes playing tricks? that's nearly 4 million shares shifted today - that's making the recent 95 million placement starting to look not so big anymore.