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  1. #2416
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    At the moment the market wouldn't have a clue what it wants its Jekyll and Hyde behaviour proves that, but for those that know this company and have done their own research none of that matters.
    I agree lots of uncertainty out of everyone’s control, better for us as we continue to benefit in the longterm.

  2. #2417
    Turn and burn Maverick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    All good Couta, each to his/her own.

    I too am v much a long term investor, however, I have learned from bitter experience that once you have a 'high conviction' purchase, it is best to spread your purchases over time as few of us can accurately and consistently pick the bottoms.

    If your horizon is 'long term' why rush in and buy all your OCA at 1.20 or 1.18? Best to use dollar cost averaging to squeeze out the 'best' 'average' price over time by buying in increments (particularly when the Trend is not yet your friend or uncertain and the total market situation is volatile - as it is with OCA.)

    I remember the lessons learned buying XRO - do you?
    Well laid out Leftfield , but the"dollar cost averaging" working out positivley for you totally depends on the share price retreating, as in OCAs case.
    Had the share price continued to rise then this purchasing style would have worked against you. You might even have been cut out of the market. What if someone went all in at 98 cents, OCA sat at that for months earlier this year.
    I don't think it really matters what "style" is used to get in on a high conviction stock, as long as one gets in.
    However I do fully agree with you about not rushing though as this allows time to learn more pros and cons on the company to confirm the " level of conviction".

    Because transparency is "on trend " on ST at the moment I m happy to fess up I've bought in donkey deep on this share since 98 cents and have since paid up $1.19. I'd buy more if I had any money available.
    This is the highest conviction share I've come across since RBD at 60 cents AIR at $1.80 and HLG at 3.00.
    Im not ramping , as I'm here for the very long haul, but I still maintain, "you just can't have too many OCA at this price."
    Last edited by Maverick; 15-12-2018 at 12:23 PM.

  3. #2418
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    Well laid out Leftfield , but the"dollar cost averaging" working out positivley for you totally depends on the share price retreating, as in OCAs case.
    Had the share price continued to rise then this purchasing style would have worked against you. You might even have been cut out of the market. What if someone went all in at 98 cents, OCA sat at that for months earlier this year.
    I don't think it really matters what "style" is used to get in on a high conviction stock, as long as one gets in.
    However I do fully agree with you about not rushing though as this allows time to learn more pros and cons on the company to confirm the " level of conviction".

    Because transparency is "on trend " on ST at the moment I m happy to fess up I've bought in donkey deep on this share since 98 cents and have since paid up $1.19. I'd buy more if I had any money available.
    This is the highest conviction share I've come across since RBD at 60 cents AIR at $1.80 and HLG at 3.00....
    Buying into a company over time in several separate purchases at (probably) different prices, whether it be dollar cost averaging or your scheme is a wonderful way of hedging.
    Prices go up and down even when the fundamentals remain the same and provided your parcels are not so small that the brokerage is significant it is a more sensible way to go for most investors.

    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    ...Im not ramping , as I'm here for the very long haul, but I still maintain, "you just can't have too many OCA at this price."
    You are ramping. No matter how convinced you are that OCA is the greatest thing since KFC you should have a limit on how many you hold.
    One day one of you high conviction stocks may well turn on you in dramatic fashion.
    I know there are many examples of successful people who bet big and won, but the many who lost the bet still exist, even if they have been forgotten.

    Whilst I believe that the current share price is less than current fair value, I do not believe it is a screaming bargain buy, but it is being seriously over-hyped on this thread.
    Last edited by Snow Leopard; 15-12-2018 at 02:27 PM.
    om mani peme hum

  4. #2419
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    Maverick


    Im not ramping , as I'm here for the very long haul, but I still maintain, "you just can't have too many OCA at this price."
    Everybody should buy a few thousand (or heaps) shares as a Christmas present to themselves ....the gift that keeps giving

    Buy at pre-Xmas prices as no Boxing Day sale here
    “Imagination is more important than knowledge.”

  5. #2420
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    ... and provided your parcels are not so small that the brokerage is significant it is a more sensible way to go for most investors.
    Agreed, I have bought small parcels of various shares at times and always make a point of calculating brokerage per share, then adding that to the current share price, in order to know what I am REALLY paying for each share.

    Wit the current price of OCA though ... well, ASB charges $15 for trades up to $1000, which means with OCA at $1.10 I could buy 909 shares and still only pay a total of $1.117 per share INCLUDING brokerage. Best way of investing my pocket money I know.

  6. #2421
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    Buying into a company over time in several separate purchases at (probably) different prices, whether it be dollar cost averaging or your scheme is a wonderful way of hedging.
    Prices go up and down even when the fundamentals remain the same and provided your parcels are not so small that the brokerage is significant it is a more sensible way to go for most investors.



    You are ramping. No matter how convinced you are that OCA is the greatest thing since KFC you should have a limit on how many you hold.
    One day one of you high conviction stocks may well turn on you in dramatic fashion.
    I know there are many examples of successful people who bet big and won, but the many who lost the bet still exist, even if they have been forgotten.

    Whilst I believe that the current share price is less than current fair value, I do not believe it is a screaming bargain buy, but it is being seriously over-hyped on this thread.
    I have to agree with you on this a little. I feel that the price is fantastic at these prices, yet the price keeps dropping. The market determines the price and that is outside my control. I do believe it will increase over time if all goes to plan, but I don't think it will double in three years. We may see a price of $1.40-$1.50 in three years. There maybe other possible things happening in the world ie "another financial crisis", or something else outside the companies control that could drive the price down further. All retirement sectors borrow to expand and at some point the lenders may need that money back in a hurry.

    Be cautious and buy more if you are happy with the price, or wait patiently on the sidelines as I have and as I have spoken about when the price went down to $1.18, until the news comes later this month to make an educated decision (which I could still get wrong). Best of luck to all holders which includes me.

  7. #2422
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post

    Because transparency is "on trend " on ST at the moment ."
    Very true indeed

  8. #2423
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    Default Are we close to the bottom ?

    Who knows but its interesting looking back at annual FY18 results presentation of OCA. NTA was $1.04 as at balance date and went up 12 cps in the year from 94 cps in 2017.
    NTA doesn't include development work in progress or the intellectual property value of all their consents obtained (but does include actual cost of getting consents). I would think at $1.10 at present OCA is trading right about in line with NTA at the half way point of the year in November and we're getting all the IP of the company including its stellar reputation for late stage care and the future IP value of resource consents already granted for nothing. Don't ever underestimate how hard it is to get resource consents for new or expanded villages. One of the absolute key's to this business is not only the key advantages of their business model in terms of churn rate but also the fact that it has years of future growth in its scale already consented ! When I see a really great business model with terrific IP thrown in for nothing I see a truly compelling long term investment proposition so this is my #1 listed investment position and #1 pick for 2019.

    If it goes down a few more cents in the short term I won't be growing any more grey hairs over that. This is a long term bottom drawer stock and a fantastic vehicle to build wealth in a relatively defensive sector for the foreseeable future and in my opinion the investment metrics are awesome. Next dividend due in February which isn't that far away now.

    DYOR though...this is just my opinion and is not advice.
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-12-2018 at 01:46 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  9. #2424
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    Where do you find a NTA of $1.04? Everywhere I look it is $0.8516 on direct broking. On marketscreener it says book value per share is at $0.889 for 2018 and $0.9238 for 2019 and $0.9478 for 2020.
    Plus another value
    https://www.hhg.co.nz/news/peripheral-stock-focus-oceania-healthcare/
    Last edited by Ggcc; 16-12-2018 at 06:39 PM.

  10. #2425
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    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...282/283328.pdf

    Page 36 analysts presentation...lots of other interesting facts and figures in there as well
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  11. #2426
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ggcc View Post
    Where do you find a NTA of $1.04? Everywhere I look it is $0.8516 on direct broking. On marketscreener it says book value per share is at $0.889 for 2018 and $0.9238 for 2019 and $0.9478 for 2020.
    Plus another value
    https://www.hhg.co.nz/news/periphera...ia-healthcare/
    Somebody has confused NTA & NAV.
    Rookie mistake.
    om mani peme hum

  12. #2427
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    Somebody has confused NTA & NAV.
    Rookie mistake.
    and in Oceania's case the A doesn't stand for Asset

    NAV is their fandangled thing called Net Adjusted Value
    “Imagination is more important than knowledge.”

  13. #2428
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post
    Somebody has confused NTA & NAV.
    Rookie mistake.
    I'm looking forward to your expert analysis fully explaining the difference between the two
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  14. #2429
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    I prefer NRV
    Net Realistic Value

    OCA around $1.30
    ARV around $1.60

  15. #2430
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    I prefer NRV
    Net Realistic Value

    OCA around $1.30
    ARV around $1.60
    I predict that the OCA SP will match or overtake ARV by the end of 2019.

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