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  1. #6571
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Beagle ..they might even do a MET and announce a share buyback
    LOL I nominate that one for the post of the day...although the one referencing that the drunk monkey's might be getting sober ran a very close second
    Last edited by Beagle; 25-09-2020 at 04:34 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #6572
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    So far this theory which appears to have no factual basis is working. Is it a coincidence that the very day they announce a bond issue the shares break out of their recent trading range or might this theory have some validity ?
    The value of marketing clearly demonstrated , perhaps all companies should take note that it is more rewarding to promote than to perform.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #6573
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    The value of marketing clearly demonstrated , perhaps all companies should take note that it is more rewarding to promote than to perform.
    Yes, I noted over at HGH the other day they were making noises about the SP not reflecting the true value and exploring ways to make amends. Will watch with (vested) interest to see what cunning stunts they come up with.

    I think there may be something in your theory there, Beagle, about the bond issue possibly putting this meaty platter under the big dogs noses. Either that or enough of the right people got a good vibe from yesterday's presso.

    Either which way, I only see big upside from here, especially when one compares it to SUM others.

  4. #6574
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Telling the world they’ve got $125m extra lending facilities from their bankers would be so ho hum boring news

    But getting $125m in a bond issue is a lot more exciting eh ....and something punters notice.






    Hope they put it to good use ...too much cash burns holes in one pockets
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #6575
    …just try’n to manage expectations… Maverick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    From yesterday. I just want to add that I believe that is a very conservative price target and it won't surprise me in the slightest if we surpass that target well before mid 2021.
    I am almost too scared to post what I really think its worth, (for fear some will call me a ramper) but the sector average PE is 18 and I think they can do 11.5 cents...I leave you good folks to do the maths. I don't see any compelling reason in the medium term why this should trade below the sector average PE.

    In the due course of time when all the overseas based negative sentiment about Covid and rest homes passes we will see a substantial rerating in my opinion.
    After a couple of sleeps now to mull over the ASM a little more I'm gonna follow Beagles FY upgrade and do the same to mine.
    There were a couple of things I didn't initially consider when updating the sheets;
    -Those extra 26% of "new sales " Earl mentions for the first 3 months would translate into meaningful increased DMFs for this FY as they happened early in the period.
    -The built up empty "resale " stock at 2020 FY end (due to the timing of the ist lockdown) will have also been unwound now given the hot market.


    Beagles estimate of underlying FY 75m is about where I got to as well,it's even a little light. So this year we are in close agreement.
    These extra Cashflows will keep Winner happy and the Fridays buy/sell chart will keep Baabaa happy.
    In fact whether you look at this stock through the lense of; underlying earnings, asset backing, yield, growth , buy/sell spread….. everyone must be happy.


    It's going to be a very good week and an even better 4 months ahead.
    Time to dust off the old OCA saying…..can't have too many!
    Last edited by Maverick; 27-09-2020 at 08:37 AM.

  6. #6576
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    After a couple of sleeps now to mull over the ASM a little more I'm gonna follow Beagles FY upgrade and do the same to mine.
    There were a couple of things I didn't initially consider when updating the sheets;
    -Those extra 26% of "new sales " Earl mentions for the first 3 months would translate into meaningful increased DMFs for this FY as they happened early in the period.
    -The built up empty "resale " stock at 2020 FY end (due to the timing of the ist lockdown) will have also been unwound now given the hot market.


    Beagles estimate of underlying FY 75m is about where I got to as well,it's even a little light. So this year we are in close agreement.
    These extra Cashflows will keep Winner happy and the Fridays buy/sell chart will keep Baabaa happy.
    In fact whether you look at this stock through the lense of; underlying earnings, asset backing, yield, growth , buy/sell spread….. everyone must be happy.


    It's going to be a very good week and an even better 4 months ahead.
    Time to dust off the old OCA saying…..can't have too many!
    LOL I love it. We should be kind on ourselves and say we were always right...just got the timing a bit wrong

    Yeah we're very close this year in the low to mid $70m range on an annualized basis, around ~ $60m reported underlying profit for the 10 months to 31 March 2021.

    Bargain to be had here...one of only a tiny number left on the NZX.

    One wonders where people are going to allocate their MET funds when that gets taken over. Hmmm
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #6577
    Membaa
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    To be honest OCA has been a poor 'long term' investment thus far since IPO in terms of capital gains, it would have been better 'short term' to have traded it, with hindsight.

    But for those who genuinely are in for the long term and do believe the business strategy and the recurring encouraging signs of good execution now passing the inflection point, OCA has presented outstanding accumulation opportunities. Not everyone can throw huge $ into a share in one go, hoping to have 'timed' their entry well. Then who would've seen Covid coming and the opportunity to buy below IPO, well below NTA and smash ones holding average price, which in effect has substituted for lack of capital gains.

    The simple line closing price chart shows the long term 'resistance band' that the SP is working through now in a 6 month uptrend from the Covid low. A recent 'golden cross' (50MA crosses up through the 200MA) is encouraging, the SP has performed well in the past when this happens, only to be dealt to by some unexpected event later. The Macquarie sell down for example was prescient for its exit price, but also damn lucky preceding Covid. Friday was an encouraging breakout of the closing price line resistance $1.03-$1.05, now support.

    Maybe people are waking up to the potential of OCA now that it's through the inflection point of its business strategy, the sector laggard presents a rare value investment in the current market, imho.

    GLTAH

  8. #6578
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    What we need now is a rave review of Oceania by Oliver in the NZ Herald.

    Oliver was a bit down on the sector a few months ago but seeing it’s all bright for Oceania I’m sure he could come up with a good positive article explaining how the Oceania model is coming right and that’s past it’s inflexion point.


    Maybe drunken monkeys read the Herald
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #6579
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    What we need now is a rave review of Oceania by Oliver in the NZ Herald.

    Oliver was a bit down on the sector a few months ago but seeing it’s all bright for Oceania I’m sure he could come up with a good positive article explaining how the Oceania model is coming right and that’s past it’s inflexion point.


    Maybe drunken monkeys read the Herald
    Cold brass monkeys too. I got a free month of the print edition in August so that I could have some paper to light the kindling for the log burner! Another small TD is maturing this week - after using some of it to replace some whiteware, I have narrowed the options to either adding to my OCA holding or adding to my KiwiSaver.
    Last edited by Bjauck; 27-09-2020 at 04:21 PM.

  10. #6580
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Maybe the drunk monkey's have sobered up

    If so 115 here we come
    $1.10 is here, keep it coming

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