OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Cyclical]

Most real estate analysts are predicting 5-10% gains in residential real estate over the next 12 months
Is it too simplistic to say that there is a one to one correlation between the value of retirement village property assets and the value of residential property
If the residential market increases by say 10% then do our 1.5bill approx property assets increase by 150m
and other associated liabilities remain constant. Thus assuming 610mill shares do we add 0.25 to our NTA

Where are you getting 1.5bill from? Are you thinking of MET?

[WAIKEN]

From May 20 report
Sorry the copy and paste has jumbled the bal sheet Ive highlighted the 2 amounts about 64k shy of 1.5bill



Consolidated Balance SheetAs at 31 May 2020$NZ000’s Notes May 2020 May 2019AssetsCash and cash equivalents 17,624 22,762Trade and other receivables 5.3 41,630 43,541Investment property 3.1 947,800 881,674Property, plant and equipment 3.2 489,990 442,709Right of use assets 3.4 40,822 -Intangible assets 5.2 10,830 8,668Total assets 1,548,696 1,399,354LiabilitiesTrade and other payables 5.4 34,831 38,565Derivative financial instruments 5.6 10,484 2,443Deferred management fee 3.3 34,344 27,002Refundable occupation right agreements 3.3 535,370 436,481Right of use liabilities 3.4 13,001 -Borrowings 4.4 325,454 270,159Deferred tax liabilities 5.1 - 14,825Total liabilities 953,484 789,475Net assets 595,212 609,879EquityContributed equity 4.1 588,389 580,794Retained deficit (155,907) (110,060)Reserves 162,730 139,145Total equity 595,212 609,879

[dubya]

From Friday:

...................I am almost too scared to post what I really think its worth, (for fear some will call me a ramper) but the sector average PE is 18 and I think they can do 11.5 cents...I leave you good folks to do the maths.....................................

From yesterday:

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/in...203231231.html

I think its got a ways to run yet. But being my biggest holding 'by a country mile'..... I guess I'm a bit biased. 😂😂😂😂 But I hope I'm right $1.96 Mmmmmmm???? !!!!

[Baa_Baa]

From Friday:



From yesterday:

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/in...203231231.html

I think its got a ways to run yet. But being my biggest holding 'by a country mile'..... I guess I'm a bit biased. 😂😂😂😂 But I hope I'm right $1.96 Mmmmmmm???? !!!!

Very exciting prospects ahead, I’m also completely biased as it’s my biggest holdings by at least two country miles! Go large or go home I reckon.

Despite beagles reluctance to fess up on his future projections, I think he should. Wouldn’t be the first time he was accused of ramping lol 😂 the hard part will, as usual, be forecasting the property market, the cost of capital and the sales performance.

Good move imo to put out the bond issue, very clever to take advantage of reducing cost of debt. These companies rely on large capital availability, so the less it costs the better.

Personally I think my chart will be useless shortly as all time highs are taken out and this blue sky rerates to new highs, in the medium term $2 is just a step on the long term outlook.

Told you I am biased. 🤩

[Leftfield]

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/in...203231231.html

I think its got a ways to run yet. But being my biggest holding 'by a country mile'..... I guess I'm a bit biased.  But I hope I'm right $1.96 Mmmmmmm???? !!!!

Crikey my estimates of fair value were much more conservative! Thanks for posting the link.

Glad I topped up a few more today, now 5% of my portfolio at an av sp of just under 90c.

[Waltzing]

Those models arnt real world and are static in nature and are data templates. That being said please dont put model up here that show its undervalued...for at least another 2 years...gives everyone who believes it true, time there entry as funds become available.

[Beagle]

Very exciting prospects ahead, I’m also completely biased as it’s my biggest holdings by at least two country miles! Go large or go home I reckon.

Despite beagles reluctance to fess up on his future projections, I think he should. Wouldn’t be the first time he was accused of ramping lol �� the hard part will, as usual, be forecasting the property market, the cost of capital and the sales performance.

Good move imo to put out the bond issue, very clever to take advantage of reducing cost of debt. These companies rely on large capital availability, so the less it costs the better.

Personally I think my chart will be useless shortly as all time highs are taken out and this blue sky rerates to new highs, in the medium term $2 is just a step on the long term outlook.

Told you I am biased. ��

I've already said what I think its really worth mate, just over $2 In my opinion its not going to go there quickly though. Covid sentiment is holding it back, overseas investors are seeing widespread deaths in old folks homes and the placement by Macquarie back in February at $1.20...those shares will be still churning back onto the market especially from disgruntled Australian investors who have seen the carnage in Victoria.

I remain of the view the bond issue will give this a significant shot in the arm, (played out over 5-6 weeks with MET last year with their bond issue), then there's the probable reinvestment of some of the funds from the likely MET takeover going back into this sector, (with settlement subject to the approval vote and high court approval scheduled for the end of October), and then we have what I think will be a stellar first half result in late January 21.

I still think OCA's business model is not understood well by larger institutional players. Once their growth becomes obvious however and with no further overhang from Macquarie this should get rerated up towards the sector average PE.

They just need to show the market their business model transformational program is working...still a bit of skepticism out there I reckon.
FA looks great and so does TA. My biggest investment position too

[Waltzing]

It used to be our biggest holding on the NZX also but now a tiny one.. If MR B is correct there is still time and prehaps thats the beauty of this stock , it wont move until the numbers line up, perfect.

We would have gone US but exchange rates were not in our favour and we thought with trump in charge the US was a gonna...

".those shares will be still churning back onto the market especially from disgruntled Australian investors who have seen the carnage in Victoria"

very insightful... if so a lot more to come when it reaches 1.10 - 1.15.

[Beagle]

Its been 7 months now since that Macquarie placement. My gut feel, (and that's all it is), is we're coming towards the end of the disgruntled selling by those that took a stake off Macquarie. Melbourne starting to improve from its Covid problems quite a bit too. Tick tock mate, I wouldn't leave it too long if I was you.

[Waltzing]

"Tick tock mate" unfortunately we have to wait since we did not unload all positions in jan when we started tracking the virus from Hong Kong. We have another trade starting soon covering exchange rates and this will tie us up for a while. OCA this time may be one we miss except for a small position, and it wont be the last we miss.