Oceania Group - retirement villages

**peat** · 12-02-2019, 07:24 PM

Originally Posted by Baa_Baa

who are these Shareclarity anyway and why would you rate them enough to quote their 'value gap'

Its a free analysis service provided by FNZC under their Direct Broking platform which replaced the ANZ Securities platform. I dont have a view on their skills yet.

**couta1** · 12-02-2019, 07:50 PM

Originally Posted by peat

Its a free analysis service provided by FNZC under their Direct Broking platform which replaced the ANZ Securities platform. I dont have a view on their skills yet.

I do, their valuations are crap, about as accurate as a coin toss I reckon.

**warren** · 12-02-2019, 10:04 PM

Originally Posted by couta1

I do, their valuations are crap, about as accurate as a coin toss I reckon.

Agreed

Lets have a review here of OCA at this time.

Fundamentals

P/E 11.390
EPS $0.093
NTA $0.860
Gross Div Y 4.434%
Earl running the Company. Liz disciplining the Company. Gregory supervising growth and many millions of shares IN. Cash flow that I can/could only dream about. Approx 3500 staff. Assets over 1.1 billion $$ Personal visits to 3 glorious new builds. Review board recommendations?? Get aboard folks just like the market is. You aint seen anything yet (apart from 4.43% on your dough) but you will.

**Beagle** · 12-02-2019, 10:07 PM

Originally Posted by winner69

That shareclarity app has OCA value gap at -17% (ie overvalued at the moment) and only gets 7 ticks out of 15 on the metrics

If they print any of their analysis out on paper and send it to me I hope its on toilet paper so I have some use for it.
I won't mince words here, I honestly think their analysis is complete garbage.

**Maverick** · 12-02-2019, 10:38 PM

Originally Posted by Beagle

If they print any of their analysis out on paper and send it to me I hope its on toilet paper so I have some use for it.
I won't mince words here, I honestly think their analysis is complete garbage.

Nice one Beagle ��Have you ever tried that new brochure glossy paper. Things could get messy.

Id like to mention that I haven't participated in this forum lately, not because I've run off to the hills because that sp is weak , but rather there have emerged a couple of d...heads who have dominated and their only mission seems to be to pour on whatever misery and derision they can to other certain posters. The ones who have offerered their considered opinions for a long time now.
"The best way to kill something is to stop feeding it."

Ps I haven't sold a single OCA . Nothing has changed my view on the positive future of this company although I do respect any INTELLIGENT counter and cautioning views that are brought up here.

**oldtech** · 13-02-2019, 07:20 AM

Originally Posted by Beagle

If they print any of their analysis out on paper and send it to me I hope its on toilet paper so I have some use for it.
I won't mince words here, I honestly think their analysis is complete garbage.

Don't hold back Beagle, tell us what you really think ...

**Onion** · 13-02-2019, 08:40 AM

Originally Posted by peat

Its a free analysis service provided by FNZC under their Direct Broking platform which replaced the ANZ Securities platform. I dont have a view on their skills yet.

ShareClarity is an independent organisation. They have struck a deal with Direct Broking but have also offered the service to NZSA members previously.

Listen to a podcast interviewing the founder of ShareClarity, Daniel Kieser.

https://www.podcasts.nz/daniel-kiese...asset-classes/

**hardt** · 13-02-2019, 08:48 AM

Originally Posted by Beagle

If they print any of their analysis out on paper and send it to me I hope its on toilet paper so I have some use for it.
I won't mince words here, I honestly think their analysis is complete garbage.

Capital intensives like retirement are not going to score well in an algorithmic DCF valuer.

Exclusivey DCF valuations, nothing in retirement fares wells.

Even my beloved ARV doesn't.

They are anything but garbage, they paint no biased qualitative analysis, only numbers.

**BlackPeter** · 13-02-2019, 08:58 AM

Now I understand why it feels so lonely on my perfectly good Shareclarity thread (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...g-ShareClarity) ... the OCA thead seems to be the place to be to discuss them!

From my perspective - I agree that shareclarity delivers just numbers ... question is just whether these numbers add value.

In many cases I fail to see a sensible correlation between their numbers and any realistic valuation of a company. Not the fault of the DCF method, but in my view either inexperienced people (or more likely bots) feeding the algorithms ... They say: garbage in - garbage out.

... and now - lets go to the thread and continue the ciscussion - shall we?

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...g-ShareClarity

**winner69** · 13-02-2019, 09:06 AM

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

Now I understand why it feels so lonely on my perfectly good Shareclarity thread (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...g-ShareClarity) ... the OCA thead seems to be the place to be to discuss them!

From my perspective - I agree that shareclarity delivers just numbers ... question is just whether these numbers add value.

In many cases I fail to see a sensible correlation between their numbers and any realistic valuation of a company. Not the fault of the DCF method, but in my view either inexperienced people (or more likely bots) feeding the algorithms ... They say: garbage in - garbage out.

... and now - lets go to the thread and continue the ciscussion - shall we?

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...g-ShareClarity

Really sorry for mentioning shareclarity .....but I had just got their new cool app and had to play with it and OCA came up.

Their DCF valuations a bit like your oft mentioned spreadsheets BP?

Suppose if shareclarity had said OCA was 17% undervalued (on their value gap basis) the comments, if any, would be have been different eh. More good raw material for the LSE guys

**winner69** · 13-02-2019, 09:24 AM

Shareclarity can’t be too bad ....their DCF value for thl is $3.81 which is 1 cent more than my optimistic scenario. Must use the same input assumptions

Can’t be right ....rubbish in rubbish out ....load of crap.

But most tend to disregard DCF valuations anyway and do the cheats way and use PE ratios and even such things ...or even worse still that much vaunted Graham Formula (when it suits)

**Beagle** · 13-02-2019, 09:35 AM

Originally Posted by oldtech

Don't hold back Beagle, tell us what you really think ...

Originally Posted by hardt

Capital intensives like retirement are not going to score well in an algorithmic DCF valuer.

Exclusivey DCF valuations, nothing in retirement fares wells.

Even my beloved ARV doesn't.

They are anything but garbage, they paint no biased qualitative analysis, only numbers.

DCF is nothing but a model using a whole bunch of assumptions. If really inexperienced analysts make a bunch of wrong calls on those assumptions you have the classic situation of any model that represents garbage in and garbage out.

**Beagle** · 13-02-2019, 09:40 AM

Originally Posted by winner69

Shareclarity can’t be too bad ....their DCF value for thl is $3.81 which is 1 cent more than my optimistic scenario. Must use the same input assumptions

Can’t be right ....rubbish in rubbish out ....load of crap.

But most tend to disregard DCF valuations anyway and do the cheats way and use PE ratios and even such things ...or even worse still that much vaunted Graham Formula (when it suits)

I actually find it irksome that on the Direct broking website the share clarity dcf valuation appears with a reference to the discount to present price or a premium. This gives share clarity vastly more credibility than they deserve in my opinion and implies that their dcf is a very valid reference point. Nothing could be further from the truth in my opinion.

Nice to see you back Maverick. Don't let some of the bull that some people talk on here put you off your game mate.
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