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  1. #2831
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LAC View Post
    Realllllly really hope you do so
    Last year this time you said SUMing like....
    "LOL that's a good one but I am happy to hold long term with SUM. They have a track record of very strong underlying EPS growth and its EPS growth that counts."

    But alas it was a long term of uuum not a very long term, so I think a plaque should be a good reminder

    SUM thing went very wrong with SUM's sales last year so $8 was too hard to ignore when it hit that SUM time last year. When the SUM's no longer add up I think its always a good thing to have SUM other plan

    Onion - EBITDA is down on aged care because of the wages going up so much, only some of which was funded with the annual DHB funding round adjustment. Basically the nurses settlement with DHB's happened after the annual funding round adjustment had been agreed for care facilities so shareholders have had to foot the bill for increased payments to nurses to stop them jumping ship.
    Hopefully the requirement for us to generously give of what should have been our increased dividend to keep the nurses happy will stop when the next annual funding round is agreed with DHB's mid 2019....well that's the story I am going to tell myself when crying myself to sleep in my kennel tonight.
    Last edited by Beagle; 25-01-2019 at 02:19 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #2832
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    pretty well looked thru it all now , like said last yr pretty garbage
    one step ahead of the herd

  3. #2833
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    pretty well looked thru it all now , like said last yr pretty garbage
    .....garbage meaning rubbish meaning no good result

    You were really bullish earlier today
    Last edited by winner69; 25-01-2019 at 04:11 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #2834
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    .....garbage meaning rubbish meaning no government d result

    You were really bullish earlier today
    tongue and cheek , i made my posts in dec which summed up my opinion proved correct today
    one step ahead of the herd

  5. #2835
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    .....garbage meaning rubbish meaning no good result

    You were really bullish earlier today
    Just his Jekyl&Hyde personality playing out or is it Schizophrenia(Hard to diagnose from a distance) PS-You won't find many safer ways of doubling your money within 3 years than OCA.

  6. #2836
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    Came here to reflect. Dividend is manageable. OCA aren't over extending themselves. IMO, Great buy-in opportunity. Happy long term outlook (in my case 5+ years)... each time I visit Sharetrader lately there seems to be a lot of combined negative sentiment. Now I visit less frequently. Same excellent outcomes. Have a great weekend people. Globally populations are growing. Demand increases for things in need... stay healthy 🤓🌈🚀

  7. #2837
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    cash flows are very good and i like how they addressed my concerns around revaluations which i ranted on about before xmas

    Due to the classification of our care facilities in the financial statements as property, plant and equipment rather than investment property, these increases in valuation are not recorded in our statutory reported profit.

    thx
    Doesn't sound like tongue-in-cheek to me, sounds like a u-turn as certainly doesnt scream a "this is rubbish" post.

    Anyhow, one thing is for sure, OCA's "track record" has been tarnished by this result (and arguably 1H18 as well)... I had to laugh off today's rather not great drop, ARV going up helped I suppose, but yes, I recall some members not wanting to touch that other listed dog because of lack of track record, no matter what the outlook or fundamentals of the sector was... which I accepted, however those same posters are now happy to go virtually solely by outlook, not by OCA's actual record/results... ironic
    Last edited by trader_jackson; 25-01-2019 at 04:54 PM.

  8. #2838
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    The love for Oceania is just as good as the love for Turners
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #2839
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    I hear you tj, there was a real love fest going on there for a while led by the usual suspects , full of Hubris. Sadly some will have been burnt by that but this should be good longterm unless the govt changes things.

  10. #2840
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    "Oceania Healthcare has established a dividend policy with a targeted pay out ratio of 50% to 60% of annual underlying NPAT". Extract from 2017 annual report.
    Might compare the share prices of the listed retirement companies since OCA listed in early May 2017 now.
    OCA was $0.79 now $1.09, up 38% plus highest dividend yield of the sector
    RYM was $8.48, now $11.23 up 32.4%
    SUM was $4.98, now $6.48 up 30.1%
    MET was $5.65, now $5.37 down 5%
    ARV was $1.29, now $1.33 up 3.1%


    Conclusion: Despite the recent SP correction OCA shareholders can take comfort from the fact that theirs's is the best performing company in the sector since it listed by quite a comfortable margin.

    Looking forward - We can clearly expect dividends to grow in line with underlying profit growth
    RYM is struggling to make its 15% long term underlying profit growth and SUM are struggling to sell their units.
    OCA clearly has a business model that involves a much higher level of churn than all other industry players.
    I expect the clear advantage OCA has in terms of yield to expand further and I see no reason why OCA won't be the top performing sector participant in terms of capital growth in the years ahead.
    OCA still has the best track record compared to all its peers and has substantially outperformed ARV and MET since it listed in May 2017.
    Yes the wages increase was a little disappointing today, (nurses will be pleased) but the long term story remains intact.
    Also unchanged despite my revised full year underlying profit target of $55 - $60m is that OCA trades on the most compelling metrics with a forward PE of about 11.5 and a gross yield of ~ 5% (based on my full year underlying profit forecast of 9.5 cps and a 55% payout ratio. (Estimated final divvy 3 cps).
    Further, their long term business model involves much more churn than others which gives the company a systemic advantage over other retirement company's.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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