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  1. #2771
    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Further to todays post, wanted to looked over a longer term than the past 12 months as 36 months would show a more consistent return.

    36 months cumulative dividend return 2016-2018
    Ryman : 57.5 cents / $9.63 = 5.97% , average yearly return 1.99%
    Summerset :28.1 cents / $5.20 = 5.4% , average yearly return 1.80%
    Metlifecare :23.8 cents / $4.90 = 4.86% , average yearly return 1.62%
    Arvida : 14.21 cents / $1.10 = 12.91% , average yearly return 4.30%

    *average share price used to average out dividend returns over 36 months

    36 month capital return over 24/1/16 – 22/1/19
    Ryman $8.04 (2016) - $11.22 (2019) = 39.55%
    Summerset $3.97 (2016) - $$6.43(2019) = 61.96%
    Metlifecare $4.42 (2016) - $5.37 (2019) = 21.49%
    Arvida $0.87 (2016) - $1.33 (2019) = 52.87 %

    Total 36 month return
    Ryman : 39.55% + 5.97% = cumulative return 45.52% , average yearly return 15.17%
    Summerset : 61.96% + 5.4% = cumulative return 67.36% , average yearly return 22.45%
    Metlifecare : 21.49% + 4.86% = cumulative return 26.35% , average yearly return 8.78%
    Arvida : 52.87% + 12.91% = cumulative return 65.78% , average yearly return 21.93%

    *This is more an indicative return over 36 months, while timing of the dates chosen could have some affect.

    -Since Oceania doesn’t have such data available due to its short listed time, it has not been included -

    Considering capital gains appears to be the dominant return, it makes more sense to choose stocks that focus more on growth than a good dividend policy.

    Most balanced return Arvida
    Best return Summerset
    Last edited by silverblizzard888; 22-01-2019 at 01:17 PM.

  2. #2772
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverblizzard888 View Post
    Further to todays post, wanted to looked over a longer term than the past 12 months as 36 months would show a more consistent return.

    36 months cumulative dividend return 2016-2018
    Ryman : 57.5 cents / $9.63 = 5.97% , average yearly return 1.99%
    Summerset :28.1 cents / $5.20 = 5.4% , average yearly return 1.80%
    Metlifecare :23.8 cents / $4.90 = 4.86% , average yearly return 1.62%
    Arvida : 14.21 cents / $1.10 = 12.91% , average yearly return 4.30%

    *average share price used to average out dividend returns over 36 months

    36 month capital return over 24/1/16 – 22/1/19
    Ryman $8.04 (2016) - $11.22 (2019) = 39.55%
    Summerset $3.97 (2016) - $$6.43(2019) = 61.96%
    Metlifecare $4.42 (2016) - $5.37 (2019) = 21.49%
    Arvida $0.87 (2016) - $1.33 (2019) = 52.87 %

    Total 36 month return
    Ryman : 39.55% + 5.97% = cumulative return 45.52% , average yearly return 15.17%
    Summerset : 61.96% + 5.4% = cumulative return 67.36% , average yearly return 22.45%
    Metlifecare : 21.49% + 4.86% = cumulative return 26.35% , average yearly return 8.78%
    Arvida : 52.87% + 12.91% = cumulative return 65.78% , average yearly return 21.93%

    *This is more an indicative return over 36 months, while timing of the dates chosen could have some affect.

    -Since Oceania doesn’t have such data available due to its short listed time, it has not been included -

    Considering capital gains appears to be the dominant return, it makes more sense to choose stocks that focus more on growth than a good dividend policy.

    Most balanced return Arvida
    Best return Summerset
    Good work however that is historic and I reckon SUMs days of best return are well and truly over, in 3 yrs time I reckon you'll find OCA in the top spot for both divvy and capital growth.

  3. #2773
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Good work however that is historic and I reckon SUMs days of best return are well and truly over, in 3 yrs time I reckon you'll find OCA in the top spot for both divvy and capital growth.
    That is a big change of heart from you couta! I remember the days you could only have an xxxxxl position in SUM!
    But yes, I agree with you 100% with your change of heart... maybe I called it a year or two early, but the right call none the less it would sound like

  4. #2774
    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Good work however that is historic and I reckon SUMs days of best return are well and truly over, in 3 yrs time I reckon you'll find OCA in the top spot for both divvy and capital growth.
    I do agree SUM is starting to slow down their development growth, still keeping consistency, but growing proportionally is much harder for them given their size now, so capital return as a percentage will be much lower than prior years. I'll probably do some more digging and see going forward what would be more expected.

  5. #2775
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    That is a big change of heart from you couta! I remember the days you could only have an xxxxxl position in SUM!
    But yes, I agree with you 100% with your change of heart... maybe I called it a year or two early, but the right call none the less it would sound like
    Yes and I sold my original SUM and RYM holdings far too early, not wanting to make the same mistake this time. PS-ARV will do well also but I prefer more eggs in one basket.

  6. #2776
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    I prefer more eggs in one basket.
    Same here...5yrs ago put lot of eggs in A2 and got grate return..actually made me semi retired at age of 45 , this time around put all my eggs (going big) in OCA, in 5yrs will be fully retired and collecting nice divi along the way

  7. #2777
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    Quote Originally Posted by dr_ View Post
    Same here...5yrs ago put lot of eggs in A2 and got grate return..actually made me semi retired at age of 45 , this time around put all my eggs (going big) in OCA, in 5yrs will be fully retired and collecting nice divi along the way
    Excellent.

  8. #2778
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    Default Formal Dividend Policy and relative performance since listing in early May 2017

    "Oceania Healthcare has established a dividend policy with a targeted pay out ratio of 50% to 60% of annual underlying NPAT". Extract from 2017 annual report.
    Might compare the share prices of the listed retirement companies since OCA listed in early May 2017 now.
    OCA was $0.79 now $1.09, up 38% plus highest dividend yield of the sector
    RYM was $8.48, now $11.23 up 32.4%
    SUM was $4.98, now $6.48 up 30.1%
    MET was $5.65, now $5.37 down 5%
    ARV was $1.29, now $1.33 up 3.1%

    Conclusion: Despite the recent SP correction OCA shareholders can take comfort from the fact that theirs's is the best performing company in the sector since it listed by quite a comfortable margin.

    Looking forward - We can clearly expect dividends to grow in line with underlying profit growth
    RYM is struggling to make its 15% long term underlying profit growth and SUM are struggling to sell their units.
    OCA clearly has a business model that involves a much higher level of churn than all other industry players.
    I expect the clear advantage OCA has in terms of yield to expand further and I see no reason why OCA won't be the top performing sector participant in terms of capital growth in the years ahead.
    Last edited by Beagle; 22-01-2019 at 03:18 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #2779
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    "Oceania Healthcare has established a dividend policy with a targeted pay out ratio of 50% to 60% of annual underlying NPAT". Extract from 2017 annual report.
    Might compare the share prices of the listed retirement companies since OCA listed in early May 2017 now.
    OCA was $0.79 now $1.09, up 38% plus highest dividend yield of the sector
    RYM was $8.48, now $11.23 up 32.4%
    SUM was $4.98, now $6.48 up 30.1%
    MET was $5.65, now $5.37 down 5%
    ARV was $1.29, now $1.33 up 3.1%

    Conclusion: Despite the recent SP correction OCA shareholders can take comfort from the fact that theirs's is the best performing company in the sector since it listed by quite a comfortable margin.

    Looking forward - We can clearly expect dividends to grow in line with underlying profit growth
    RYM is struggling to make its 15% long term underlying profit growth and SUM are struggling to sell their units.
    OCA clearly has a business model that involves a much higher level of churn than all other industry players.
    I expect the clear advantage OCA has in terms of yield to expand further and I see no reason why OCA won't be the top performing sector participant in terms of capital growth in the years ahead.
    I don't see any reason why Oceania would not meet their long term incentive plan requirement of 35% growth in underlying earnings per year:

    "Generally, the shares under the 2017 LTIP Scheme will be eligible to vest if, at the vesting date (which is the businessday after release of the financial statements for the year ended 31 May 2020), the participant remains employed by Oceania and the performance hurdles are achieved. The performance hurdles require Oceania’s performance tomeet, or exceed, an underlying Earnings per Share Compound Annual Growth Rate ("EPS CAGR") of 35% per annumor greater, over the three year period to 31 May 2020."
    Last edited by Turtle2; 22-01-2019 at 03:46 PM.

  10. #2780
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turtle2 View Post
    I don't see any reason why Oceania would not meet their long term incentive plan requirement of 35% growth in underlying earnings per year:

    "Generally, the shares under the 2017 LTIP Scheme will be eligible to vest if, at the vesting date (which is the businessday after release of the financial statements for the year ended 31 May 2020), the participant remains employed by Oceania and the performance hurdles are achieved. The performance hurdles require Oceania’s performance tomeet, or exceed, an underlying Earnings per Share Compound Annual Growth Rate ("EPS CAGR") of 35% per annumor greater, over the three year period to 31 May 2020."
    I think you are right Turtle2, the target of 35% per annum has likely been set to be easily achievable. So 40% plus is quite possible.

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