OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[peat]

Actually - just pulled for fun relevant 2 year trendcharts:

OCA (blue) vs RYM (red)
Attachment 10293

and
OCA (blue) vs SUM (red)
Attachment 10294

What I can read out of them is that the market sees all three of them quite highly correlated ... though its appreciation of OCA did in comparison slightly rise in the 18 months since they started. OCA finishes 5 to 10 % better than RYM or SUM. As well - the OCA dividend yield paid out in 2018 is better than the RYM or SUM dividend yield.

So - if we assume that the market is always right, than it is clearly nonsense to put some of them down and ramp the other(s) up. All the same with a bit higher yield for a bit higher risk.

qed

see post 2975 - keep up!

[BlackPeter]

being creative is comparing selected time periods... ARV has done much better than OCA in the past 6 months, but we'll just ignore that and look at the magical 2 year mark... really does depend on the angle you look at it afterall!

No idea how you can compare "unselected" time periods if this is what you are asking for ... or do you mean that a comparison is only fair if ARV wins?
Anyway - here is the chart:

OCA (blue) vs ARV (red):

Attachment 10295

The only thing I can read out of that is that the market seems to think that ARV is a dog ...

[trader_jackson]

No idea how you can compare "unselected" time periods if this is what you are asking for ... or do you mean that a comparison is only fair if ARV wins?
Anyway - here is the chart:

OCA (blue) vs ARV (red):

Attachment 10295

The only thing I can read out of that is that the market seems to think that ARV is a dog ...

Absolutely not, but some would argue 2 years is far too shorter time to say either has won.

[Beagle]

being creative is comparing selected time periods... ARV has done much better than OCA in the past 6 months, but we'll just ignore that and look at the magical 2 year mark... really does depend on the angle you look at it afterall!

When comparing one stock with another and one has been listed for only a short time why wouldn't the main reference point be the time since the former was listed ?
That would appear to be the most logical to make any sort of comprehensive statement about one being a better performer than the other, surely !
Of course you would argue OCA was listed too cheaply and therefore that analysis is fundamentally flawed. At face value that seems like an awfully "convenient" position to take. Perhaps one should defer any consideration until such time as we can look at average underlying eps growth over two years and then one could start to draw a reasonable, conclusion about which company is growing faster.

[BlackPeter]

Absolutely not, but some would argue 2 years is far too shorter time to say either has won.

Life is a marathon and the opera is not over before the fat lady sings ... So, absolutely - market might change its perception and things might well look very different in 5,10, 20 or 50 years. Or they might not - who knows?

And absolutely - if you are a trader (as your nome de plume seems to indicate, than there clearly would have been money in switching in Oct 2018 from OCA to ARV (though simply going into cash would have been still smarter ) From an investor perspective however I know which one I would prefer.

[trader_jackson]

When comparing one stock with another and one has been listed for only a short time why wouldn't the main reference point be the time since the former was listed ?

That would appear to be the most logical to make any sort of comprehensive statement about one being a better performer than the other, surely !
Of course you would argue OCA was listed too cheaply and therefore that analysis is fundamentally flawed. At face value that seems like an awfully "convenient" position to take. Perhaps one should defer any consideration until such time as we can look at average underlying eps growth over two years and then one could start to draw a reasonable, conclusion about which company is growing faster.

Let us not forget I was first to announce on the forum the listing price and how cheap this was... so this is not just a "convenient" position I have taken (see post 122 - and 124 waay back on page 9)... and in fact completely opposite to the position some others had taken just 2 ish years ago... Funny that!

NPAT dropped 97% at half year for OCA, ARV NPAT up over 100%... literally polar opposites at 1H19, But I suppose it all depemds on what periods (and numbers) you compare to determine whether or not OCA or ARV is 'growing faster'? Funny that!

[Beagle]

Yes, it took me a while to warm up to them and yes you were right to say they were listed very cheaply. Well done. Kudos where its due.
NPAT....I work on underlying profit as do all the professional analysts but I think you know that already..and that last paragraph is just trying to wind up the dog's tail....

[Snow Leopard]

My acquaintances at the London School of Economics looking for research material into behavioural finance think this thread is great.

Do there use the term 'group think' a lot?

Probably got a more technical foreign sounding word for it.

[couta1]

Meanwhile we have had a Mexican standoff since 11:32.PS-In other trivial news SUM be heading under $6 in the near future.

[LAC]

Meanwhile we have had a Mexican standoff since 11:32.PS-In other trivial news SUM be heading under $6 in the near future.

Ready for it