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18-03-2019, 12:23 PM
#3291
Originally Posted by winner69
Maverick - maybe, just maybe, your assessment and sums are wrong
What happens at the giant drop at Dreamworld if that’s the case.
The sums are not wrong. Nothing has changed with the company, the problem is that the sellers have simply exhausted the buyers. It`ll turn the other way one day. I`m as calm as a cucumber.
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18-03-2019, 12:26 PM
#3292
Originally Posted by Maverick
This is so much fun...like the giant drop at dreamworld.
No good mate. I get fear of heights and dizziness from rollercoasters.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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18-03-2019, 12:29 PM
#3293
Member
Originally Posted by bull....
not many buyers on the depth at the moment , 98 - 100 is a support area so see if they appear at some stage
You are really bang on with this OCA stuff. Is 0.89 for next support you guess? I am all ears. Ta.
Last edited by tuaman; 18-03-2019 at 12:31 PM.
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18-03-2019, 01:02 PM
#3294
Originally Posted by tuaman
You are really bang on with this OCA stuff. Is 0.89 for next support you guess? I am all ears. Ta.
technically there nothing relevant about 89c i can see , no price history under 95c really to make any assumptions about much from a t/a perspective. fundamentally some people might be able to make a case for such a price in time.
one step ahead of the herd
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18-03-2019, 01:55 PM
#3295
Just to throw some random numbers into the discussion:
Analyst consensus (4-traders) is $1.18 (in a band from $1.11 to $1.24). Statistical reliability (for what it is worth) - I do track their forecasts for the stocks I hold and watch - and for these they get roughly 60% right. Obviously - the other 40% are wrong. Just for clarification: "Right" means in this context the stock is at forecast below the prediction but reaches or exceeds the prediction at least once at or before the end of the prediction period).
DCF value (ShareClarity): 88 cents; Statistical reliability: only started to track these values (i.e. 2 early to tell), but so far I found less than 10% where the ShareClarity DCF looked sensible compared to the known fundamentals, analyst consensus or SP development;
Graham formula ((8.5 + 2g) * EPS) returns $2.54 per share; Typically though ways too optimistic;
... but if I use the famous bull (or should I say B/S) formula using my random gernerator, than the answer is 42 ... (not sure though, whether this is cents or dollars).
SP can go anywhere as long as there is an imbalance between sellers and buyers ... the old play between fear and greed.
bull (s?) seem to like the fear game ...
Last edited by BlackPeter; 18-03-2019 at 01:57 PM.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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18-03-2019, 02:18 PM
#3296
... and here are some random support zones:
$1 (at end of day) would be a quite significant support (if it holds ...) just because markets do love round numbers.
98 cents - OCA bounced a long time along along this support level - these things tend to stick in investors memories (and they buy ...).
95 cents used to be the bottom of one of these (a bit) larger troughs - another potential support zone ...
... and below that there is obviously the IPO price (not absolutely sure, I think it was 85 cents).
I'd see the SP as unlikely to drop below the high 90'ies (and certainly not below the IPO price) - but if somebody is playing games, than one never knows where naked fear can lead investors ;
Obviously - all this fearmongering re wages, evil Australian retirement homes and CGT is - just that: plain fear mongering.
Any of above would impact on all of our retirement villages in a similar manner - and so far I don't see them all crashing into the ground.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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18-03-2019, 02:34 PM
#3297
bp you forget to mention the property market which is the most important consideration for most. declining margins would reduce the profitabilty of all of them wouldnt it? you dont even need a falling property market to affect margins
one step ahead of the herd
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18-03-2019, 02:44 PM
#3298
Originally Posted by bull....
bp you forget to mention the property market which is the most important consideration for most. declining margins would reduce the profitabilty of all of them wouldnt it? you dont even need a falling property market to affect margins
House prices are going up in most of the country. Its very very easy for people based in Auckland to get tunnel vision especially when going through the new waterview tunnel
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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18-03-2019, 02:45 PM
#3299
Originally Posted by bull....
bp you forget to mention the property market which is the most important consideration for most. declining margins would reduce the profitabilty of all of them wouldnt it? you dont even need a falling property market to affect margins
Wouldn't this impact as well on all retirement villages? If yes, why is SUM currently climbing?
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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18-03-2019, 03:22 PM
#3300
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Wouldn't this impact as well on all retirement villages? If yes, why is SUM currently climbing?
guess so in the long run.
if you look at sum vrs oca both have reported results and since these results sum has gone up oca down. maybe the fundamentals are better for sum than oca in peoples eyes hence the switching from oca to sum
one step ahead of the herd
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