OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Meister]

That’s just hindsight .
You have no idea where the price would have ended up there were no reliable support levels since it dropped below IPO price .

With that logic you could have thought 60c was a steal too while it was going down .

Don’t beat yourself over it and remember that how much you put in is personal portfolio size based and DCA doesn’t mean put tiny amounts in each time it means lowering your average holding cost and you can do that whatever way you want but the reality is you think 40c was the ideal price but it’s got no basis .

Furthermore the price surges are driven by institutions it’s not smart to think you’ll time it better than them so in hindsight every price looked like a great entry but it’s only a great entry if a big institution thought it was . Long term 60 and 40c entries won’t make any difference .

My entry was purely luck based and I wont even act like I modeled the price as being ideal entry

Hindsight, and this particular situation, definitely makes this thought biased. But the idea remains... if you want a 50k position, and the price seems right, you can either dump it all in, or DCA it in with five 10k purchase over 5 weeks, or ten 5k purchases over 10 weeks (or whatever time/schedule you want). The reasons for DCA'ing it in are to spread your entry over time so that you average out your entry, and reduce the risk of buying right before a drop.

The idea behind my post isn't really intended to be one of trying to time the market (although I see that it practically is that), its one of assessing the reasons for doing the DCA in the first place (risk reduction) in the light of the current situation and your valuation of the company. It may not be optimal to dump it all in once, but when the risk/reward ratio is heavily skewed in your favour (which I think is still true at 60c, but was 'unbelievable value' at 40c) then you may want to adjust your DCA strategy to take that into account. It might be better to do larger purchases, more frequently. It might be better to break from your strategy to make an off-schedule purchase because things are looking fantastic.

Its true you can still get it wrong, and it may still go down. That is up to you and your own valuation of the company to decide how you want to play it. The potential downside at 60c is a lot less than the upside. The downside at 40c is tiny compared to the upside. I think our entry strategies need to take that into account.

In saying that, over the very long term perspective, you are correct that 40c or 60c may not really matter

[macduffy]

It depends very much on the liquidity of the stock, of course. Hitting a thinly traded one with a bid for 50,000 would usually see a spike in the offer. I realise that's not the case with OCA but mention it as one aspect to be considered.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12321221

Mike Taylor suggests buying a little bit on the very bad days. Might dip another claw, (from the same paw as last time), in the water on the next big dipper. Definitely won't be diving in and swimming in it dog paddle style, anytime soon.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12321221

Mike Taylor suggests buying a little bit on the very bad days. Might dip another claw, (from the same paw as last time), in the water on the next big dipper. Definitely won't be diving in and swimming in it dog paddle style, anytime soon.

That Mike is a graduate of Sharetrader

A few bright people graduated from here to do well in funds management. Dimebag was another one.

[Cyclical]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12321221

Mike Taylor suggests buying a little bit on the very bad days. Might dip another claw, (from the same paw as last time), in the water on the next big dipper. Definitely won't be diving in and swimming in it dog paddle style, anytime soon.

Interesting read that, thanks.

[Beagle]

That Mike is a graduate of Sharetrader

A few bright people graduated from here to do well in funds management. Dimebag was another one.

Good on him. Makes me wonder if I should have started my own firm years ago when I was a younger dog. I'd really enjoy writing newsletters articulating how one needs to take a dogged approach or even sometimes be dogmatic in your approach or ensure you dig under every rock and lets not ever forget the benefits of being a dividend hound. Could call it the Kennel Club Investments Ltd

[SailorRob]

It's never too late and you can't teach an old dog new tricks which in your case would be a very good thing as it's the old tricks that keep you winning.

[nevchev]

Bulldog Investments....rough rough

[Beagle]

Bulldog Investments....rough rough

Thanks SailorRob

[macduffy]

Good on him. Makes me wonder if I should have started my own firm years ago when I was a younger dog. I'd really enjoy writing newsletters articulating how one needs to take a dogged approach or even sometimes be dogmatic in your approach or ensure you dig under every rock and lets not ever forget the benefits of being a dividend hound. Could call it the Kennel Club Investments Ltd

Yes, Beagle. It seems there's no limits to a dog's talents!