OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

Probably all in my imagination. Should get back to doing some real work for a change.

[Leftfield]

...
Interesting situation developing with OCA...it seems the daily share price performance shows a fairly strong correlation with the number of new virus cases in N.Z.
Zero new cases the share price goes up a bit and when there's 2 or more new cases the share price goes down a bit. Is the market really this fickle or is this apparent share price reaction a figment of my sometimes over active imagination ?

Crikey Beagle what with your correlation theory around covid cases and mine around relativity to PLX, I think we both better get out a bit more. Shades of Cabin Fever methinks!

[Entrep]

Land stocks massacred overnight

Attachment 11686

I've stated several times that OCA is absolutely correlated to these US property shares, let's see how they go this coming week

Pretty simple really

[Baa_Baa]

I need to let this go, but was intrigued to see whether Beagle had identified some correlation between OCA SP daily changes and the daily Covid cases.

So a re-look at the data from a different perspective shows that the SP damage was done before NZ covid cases started ramping up, and the cumulative OCA SP changes rose throughout the climb in covid cases and has continued after the cases declined and flatlined through to today.

That's looks like a classic market panic sell off on the global news of an epidemic/pandemic, then a slow realisation that NZ and OCA isn't as affected as the panic suggested and a relentless climb back to pre-covid SP levels. Wow, congrats to whomever bought the sub .40 and sub .50 SP, heck even the sub IPO and sub-NTA were and are great buying.

Had OCA succumbed to a local infection the figures might be much worse, but it hasn't, so I see the covid status quo as an eventual recovery to pre-covid SP and a realignment with OCA fundamental values and future prospects.

Check this out.

Attachment 11738

I thought that was an interesting question, but not sure whether this shows a correlation, if anything it was negatively correlated as the case counts rose, so was the share price rising. Then fell as the case counts declined, then rose as case counts went to zero. Now it's jumping around for no apparent reason related to case counts.

Attachment 11735

[winner69]

BaaBaa ...snowie says use log scale

[Baa_Baa]

BaaBaa ...snowie says use log scale

Ha ha, true he does say that, but this isn't a SP chart, it's a simple time based study of cumulative SP changes against number of daily covid cases. Log scale .. hmm, I'll send you the data and see what you come up with?

I think I've done enough, it shows that emotion smashed the SP before NZ experienced local covid cases, then recovered despite local covid cases and continues to recover.

What's your take on it, do you see a correlation or just a market doing its thing? Seems to me that OCA SP is disconnected from NZ actual covid cases.

[Waltzing]

ARV DIV " Our intention is to maintain our dividend policy with a payout ratio of 50% to 70% of underlying profit. Wewould hope there would be further clarity on the future economic environment when we report on thehalf year results in November.”

what is the policy for OCA?

[Beagle]

50-60% of annual underlying profit (source - see page 3 of their first annual report under the heading shareholder returns) http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...591/262296.pdf

.

[Waltzing]

Thank you MR B!

[King1212]

Arvida took $5 m hit extra expy from the covid. $2m from government n extra $3m from the company.