OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

One company slightly disappointed and the other really impressed. I am unsure why anyone is surprised by their relative share price movements since they reported ?

[Ggcc]

OCA will have its day. If not this year then next year. I can wait and I am sure many longterm holders are not worried, maybe optimistic at the prospect of investing more money if the price drops further.

[Maverick]

You're are worry Maverick

Profit downgrade from $75m to $64.5m

Downgrades usually come in threes many say

Don't be too pessismistic with your next downgrade or two....bearing in mind F18 underlying earnings were $52m

I see your reported profit figure of $50m to $65m is a lot less than F18 .....hmm

Maybe the pros have done the sums as well and thats why the share price is languishing

Hey Winner (and if there's anyone else still holding), ive tried to narrow my predicted OCA fy 19 gaping wide profit expectation band of 50-64.5 mil.
New sales from OCA is the crucial factor to where about within this band the reported number will sit. Soooo......I've been putting some attention on the relationship between unit deliveries and sales. I've been modelling from ARV selling rates as they are OCA`s closest cousin and have been around a bit longer with more historical stuff to work with. I'm still sticking with a "real" OCA profit of 64.5 million although they would have to sell all of there newly delivered units in fy19, this of course won't be a reality. I've already stated I think it will head line between 50 - 64.5mil entirely depending on how many delivered units actually get sold FY19.
I now reckon it will be reported close to 55 million. (Interestingly for me, Beagle has said about this number already) The remaining 9.5 million profit will be disguised as "empty stock" and reappear as profit in fy20.

55 mil at a PE of 13.5 = share price $1.22. (Result comes out 4 months from now).

IMO the Pe should then be around 16 but it would seem hell will freeze over first.
Of course all of this is just my opinion and currently there is no logic to today's share price anyway other than someone bloody minded shareholder/s wants out.

[winner69]

Maverick — so ‘forecast’ of ~$75m down to ~$65m and now down to ~$55m

Downgrades come in threes they say ...so is next one $51.6m ...the same as last year

No or low growth company ...hype not turning into reality.

Such oe formance OCA deserves to be on ARV multiples ......PE of about 10 to 11 ....shareprice 85centsvto 95 cents

Jeez looks like my ‘investment’ has become more of a ‘speculation’ - should not have got sucked in by the hype....hoping like hell now OCA will ‘have its day’

[BlackPeter]

Maverick — so ‘forecast’ of ~$75m down to ~$65m and now down to ~$55m

Downgrades come in threes they say ...so is next one $51.6m ...the same as last year

No or low growth company ...hype not turning into reality.

Such oe formance OCA deserves to be on ARV multiples ......PE of about 10 to 11 ....shareprice 85centsvto 95 cents

Jeez looks like my ‘investment’ has become more of a ‘speculation’ - should not have got sucked in by the hype....hoping like hell now OCA will ‘have its day’

Mmh - I guess profit can grow this year or (more likely) next year, but if you think this is a no growth company - do you assume they never will sell the units they deliver?

This does not make sense to me unless somebody stops people from growing older and magically inflates the housing supply. The 37 houses Labour deliverd in their first year won't cut it and so house prices unlikely to drop.

[macduffy]

Mmh - I guess profit can grow this year or (more likely) next year, but if you think this is a no growth company - do you assume they never will sell the units they deliver?

This does not make sense to me unless somebody stops people from growing older and magically inflates the housing supply. The 37 houses Labour deliverd in their first year won't cut it and so house prices unlikely to drop.

I agree, BP. Nothing has changed in terms of the bigger picture but as has been said before, this is a term investment - and not necessarily one for the traders.

[Maverick]

Maverick — so ‘forecast’ of ~$75m down to ~$65m and now down to ~$55m

Jeez looks like my ‘investment’ has become more of a ‘speculation’ - should not have got sucked in by the hype....hoping like hell now OCA will ‘have its day’

i think you've it got around the wrong way Winner..."looks like you're speculation has become more of an investment"

the profit will be there, just will need to be more obvious under people's noses for the current market to see it . Seems only a few actually read their info to the point of understanding it. That just might take another year.....BUT ITS THERE!!!!!

I figure W69, your just bored today and taking the piss....your too smart for that post to be serious.

[allfromacell]

I think some risks are overlooked a little on this thread. Mainly the staff levels, there are 2550 staff at OCA who in total look after 3600 residents. The seems like a lot of staff and like most of us they all want more money!

Regardless $1 does seem like decent buying so I've joined the hype and purchased decent sized holding today.

[BlackPeter]

I think some risks are overlooked a little on this thread. Mainly the staff levels, there are 2550 staff at OCA who in total look after 3600 residents. The seems like a lot of staff and like most of us they all want more money!

Regardless $1 does seem like decent buying so I've joined the hype and purchased decent sized holding today.

Question would be - do they have too much staff working for them, given that they need to care for a lot of vulnerable people 24/7? I would not think so, but people like couta would have probably a better idea.

If the staff ratio is right, than I guess it is at the end just the customer (or indirectly the government) who has to pay for this cost. Not a risk to the business given that every competitor would have the same cost unless some of them like to lose money.

Ah yes, and welcome on board. I think you got your ticket for a reasonable price (though - admittedly - my average buy in is lower);

[winner69]

the profit will be there, just will need to be more obvious under people's noses for the current market to see it . Seems only a few actually read their info to the point of understanding it. That just might take another year.....BUT ITS THERE!!!!!

I’ve read there stuff, read stuff on here, read other stuff, talked to an Oceania guy, done a fair bit of modelling and still can’t see it.

Yes next year might be better than this year and all that but not to the extent some people ar3 saying.

I have an issue with the sales price trends but even though i’ve sort of worked out why but to me it just doesn’t make sense they can have 52 more sales and make about the same in underlying profit (and heaps less at Comprehensive Income level)

So in the meantime I will remain as one of the majority (who are rather dumb) and not one of the clever few who understand what they present.

Hoping it all comes right one day ...really hoping