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05-07-2020, 12:42 PM
#5911
what winner? They will leave? A buying or renting spike about to restart the housing bubble or they will buy at low interest rates and rejoin the global economy when the smoke clears renting out there new properties. All in all good for the over all property market. Boom in 10 year time? Average price in the golden T 1 million inside 10 years? SUM companies back in business big time?
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05-07-2020, 04:13 PM
#5912
Originally Posted by Paradox
OK, here it goes....I've completed my first iteration of valuation based on residual income.
Assuming:
- cost of capital (equity) at 10.7%
- cost of operations is 7.4%
- perpetual growth of residual income from 2025 at 2-3%
- Value per share is $1.77- $1.90
Total PV of the ReOI is $114m and PV of continuing value is $440m.
Once the full year results are out, I'll adjust it a tad.
Welcome any feedback.
thanks
Disc: I now hold a few shares and will be buying more.
Independent valuation of MET had them on as much as 17 times underlying earnings and provided we don't go back into lockdown with more community transmission then N.Z. will be seen as a safe haven, real estate will continue to be well supported especially by ex pat's wanting to come home and in 2-3 years time OCA could be reporting around 12-14 cents a share in underlying earnings and the shares could easily be in the range you mentioned by applying a multiple of 17 times say 12 cents, ~ $2.
On the other hand if through the gross recklessness of someone like that woman who deliberately escaped from quarantine there is community transmission and we get a situation like they have in Victoria at the moment and have another extended period of lockdown then we have another scenario whereby earnings could suffer an even worse hit.
I think a prudent person keeps some dry powder for that second possible scenario.
Last edited by Beagle; 05-07-2020 at 04:22 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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05-07-2020, 04:22 PM
#5913
Member
Originally Posted by Beagle
Independent valuation of MET had them on as much as 17 times underlying earnings and provided we don't go back into lockdown with more community transmission then N.Z. will be seen as a safe haven, real estate will continue to be well supported especially by ex pat's wanting to come home and in two years time OCA could be reporting around 11-13 cents a share in underlying earnings and the shares could easily be in the range you mentioned by applying a multiple of 17 times say 12 cents, ~ $2.
On the other hand if through the gross recklessness of someone like that woman who deliberately escaped from quarantine there is community transmission and we get a situation like they have in Victoria at the moment and have another extended period of lockdown then we have another scenario whereby earnings could suffer an even worse hit.
I think a prudent person keeps some dry powder for that second possible scenario.
Sure, I've got a conservative outlook on the numbers overall.
EPS is 14-16 cents a share and forward P/E of 15-17.
I'm keeping the powder dry - but will accumulate after the results are out.
Disc: Hold some
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05-07-2020, 05:49 PM
#5914
Be quite a while before they have eps of 14-16 cents in my opinion. I am sure Maverick will have a different view but I think that's 3 years away, maybe 4.
Its good to be a realist / pessimist, you get disappointed less often 90 cents or thereabouts on next years 10 cps, (provided Covid 19 is kept out of the community, but will that happen ?) is really compelling value though !
Disc: I still have heaps of these in case anyone is wondering. I just want to take a more conservative view of possible outcomes and of the growth rate as that's good for me to think more conservatively and if I'm wrong and its better than I am expecting, that's great but I am not counting on it.
Last edited by Beagle; 05-07-2020 at 05:53 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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06-07-2020, 10:40 AM
#5915
Think 20 years out. What will the price be then. Its a health sector investments and surely as MR B says a long term investment. If you are looking out 20 years then surely there is at least another 24 to 36 months to evaluate this as a long term investment play. Even if you only have say 100,000 a small investment in 20 years what would that look like? DISC: we moved most of our property into ARG over the last 6 months as GMT , PCT topped out. we think the retirement sector is a LONG TERM INVESTMENT.
Last edited by Waltzing; 06-07-2020 at 10:44 AM.
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06-07-2020, 01:36 PM
#5916
expect OCA spikes up in the next couple weeks as all the MET holders are looking for a new place to park their money in this sector
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06-07-2020, 02:08 PM
#5917
Originally Posted by King1212
expect OCA spikes up in the next couple weeks as all the MET holders are looking for a new place to park their money in this sector
Bingo mate....more than a Billion dollars will be looking for a new home !
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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06-07-2020, 02:08 PM
#5918
chart indicates and i would like to be corrected , a 1.10 retest? before sell off after release of the P&L. Underlying profit and loss seems to be how this sector is priced?
Last edited by Waltzing; 06-07-2020 at 02:10 PM.
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06-07-2020, 03:35 PM
#5919
MET news seems to have helped OCA share price today
OCA needs all the good news in the sector it can get to get its shareprice moving ... and tag along with the others ......not much going for OCA otherwise
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06-07-2020, 03:40 PM
#5920
Nah.....it will soon be $1.20 once MET sales gone through
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