OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[penn]

Coastal erosion would have an affect even if 2m above.
If you want a coastal front property some time in the future buy a cheaper one 1 street back now.

Many of the OCA properties are "one street back" These guys have pulled off a major coup, and OCA hold no 'land bank' in the Pearl river delta, Bangladesh, Bangkok, or Jakarta!

[Maverick]

OCA presenting at the UBS conference this week , I'm not expecting any new information but you never know. Plus I'm also not expecting the attendees to rush out and start buying either, at least not this week.

I am rather pleased to see some SP movement the last few weeks, maybe a new theorem to add to the famous Couta ratio...
"every 10 % the whole sector goes up , OCA goes up 1 %."

[value_investor]

OCA presenting at the UBS conference this week , I'm not expecting any new information but you never know. Plus I'm also not expecting the attendees to rush out and start buying either, at least not this week.

I am rather pleased to see some SP movement the last few weeks, maybe a new theorem to add to the famous Couta ratio...
"every 10 % the whole sector goes up , OCA goes up 1 %."

Interested to see where you think the HY results would land based on your knowledge. I feel like a large timing issue at the end of the year could see an inflated first half of the year. Yet to really go big on the stock but built a small position so far.

[Maverick]

Interested to see where you think the HY results would land based on your knowledge. I feel like a large timing issue at the end of the year could see an inflated first half of the year. Yet to really go big on the stock but built a small position so far.

I don't mind offering my opinion, Value-I, for the up coming HY result due late January. After all, thats what this forum is here for.
I'm picking around $34 million underlying profit, which is about 35% higher than last years. I know this sounds ludicrous given last years result was flat.

The rate of new sales for last years late deliveries is the big variable that will mostly influence the result. All other factors are simple maths based on known values.
I have spoken with OCAs investor relations guy( nice fellow too) and he won't tell me or even the instos what the sales are doing. ( he said they try all kinds of ways to find out but he said they don't know any more than the rest of us). So that means the last known sales figures where the ones given at the annual meeting a few months ago. This means a large extrapolation based on a short time frame of data, not ideal. Based on those sales rates, the two big deliveries, browns bay and meadow bank, should sell down fully over 12 months. Based on other years deliveries and other retirement companies ,this also seems about right.

Earl has said, the care profit part of the business will be similar as last year. This is important because it has been reducing significantly for the last three years. Basically , wages rises, inefficient staffing rates(due to the inefficient occupancies)and also turning clients (revenue) away to allow the redevelopment of villages has caused this. Beagle and I disagree on this issue, as he has said here that he sees this as out of control expenses but OCAs reasoning does make sense to me after seeing first hand what they are doing on these sites. Interestingly the 2 major sites currently being built are both non operating sites so that issue isn't a biggie this FY. Unless of course Beagle is correct.

I don't see the result being weighted to either HY as the selling down should be fairly even with other new builds being completed and delivered on a fairly smooth timeline.

So there you have it, according to me it's going to be a stunning and sustainable result but as you will see by the share price , I'm the only guy who thinks so.

[Beagle]

Not a crime for OCA to update the market on sales progress...and I would bet my last dollar Macquarie know how things are going in great detail with monthly management reports. One thing I will be scrutinizing carefully with the half year result is the profitability from the existing care side of their operations.
For mine, they need to demonstrate that they can operate this, (the bulk of their business model for the next 2 years at least) without any further deterioration in profitability.
The company is very keen to talk up the transition of their business model, (which will take many years to come to fruition and is not by any means an all encompassing panacea for lack of cost control disciplines within their entire business), and much less keen to talk about how profitability is deteriorating in the care side of their operations. If the can't stop the rot and control costs properly that lack of discipline will affect profitability going forward forever and a day until they get a new CEO who is highly disciplined and not so focused on being a people pleaser. Earl is a nice guy, don't get me wrong, too nice is the problem. CEO's need a bit of mongrel in them and I don't think Earl has any.

[tim23]

$1.06 today best price in months with good volume too.

[winner69]

$1.06 today best price in months with good volume too.

Breakout happening. ..once we get over $1.10 it’s all on.

[Beagle]

Rising tide lifts all boats even those with systemic issues.

[couta1]

Breakout happening. ..once we get over $1.10 it’s all on.

Its all on for Macca your friendly elephant, he's long overdue to offload a whole heap more peanuts at an illusionary bargin price.

[King1212]

Beagle...get him to join mongrel mob gang...