OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

Yeap, CVT went up 20%...Not the only example either, PPH got a big lift also of just on 20% on NZX50 inclusion...some naughty dog played both these events and enjoyed a serious feed each time but there have been times when nothing has happened as BP quite rightly cautioned.

Bit of a lottery really. Agree it's good value at $1.00 or thereabouts.
For my money, (and this is purely speculative on my part), if it does get index inclusion the lift, if any, won't be anything like 20% this time.

Inclusion in the NZX50 seems to give a stock some respectability ...and this might happen to Oceania and help it get rid of it’s dog status.

[BlackPeter]

Could do a Comvita though ...look at what happened when they got included in the NZX50 ...was like it broke free from all things that had been holding the share price down.

... and look where they are now ; Comvita is the ultimate example for what hype can do to a boring but badly managed agricultural share.

But sure - there may or may not be opportunities coming up for traders.

[couta1]

The Macca overhang controls and caps the SP of this stock and until it's removed or seriously diluted don't expect any spectacular or long lasting fireworks display.

[Beagle]

Inclusion in the NZX50 seems to give a stock some respectability ...and this might happen to Oceania and help it get rid of it dog status.

Agreed. There's the short term effect of up to a possible ~ 20% gain, (can't ever recall better examples that PPH and CVT) and then the respectability that comes from inclusion in the index although as BP again quite rightly points out if a company is very badly managed, (not suggesting for one minute OCA is), none of this matters in the long run. Also agree 100% with what Couta1 has just said above. I'm agreeing with everyone so far today, that feels a bit strange lol

[dabsman]

Bot sure about what I'm saying but wouldnt it then put it in front of more potential analysts who's funds cant touch it till it is in certain indexes?

[winner69]

Always risky to play on index inclusions and departures. If one looks into the history of these frequently hyped up events than all one often sees is some SP volatility around the event (probably more from the hype than from the index transactions), but it is quite rare that the SP moves long term due to the index event.

If OCA will be included into the NZX 50, than all which happens is that the NZX All Ord Index funds move their holdings into the NZX 50 index funds. No big deal.

Obviously - OCA might go up due to other reasons - like great PE in combination with lots of growth and favourable population demographics. Recent gummit decision might help as well (no CGT gives our bulls one reason less to down ramp) - and obviously ... it is not just me who sees them as undervalued (check analyst recommendations: https://www.marketscreener.com/OCEAN...010/consensus/).

Discl: happy holder, but don't expect fireworks from any index inclusion.

These four analysts seem to lower their target prices as the share price goes down.

But as long as punters agree with the numbers and gives them some warm fuzzies the guesses must good ones

[winner69]

Bot sure about what I'm saying but wouldnt it then put it in front of more potential analysts who's funds cant touch it till it is in certain indexes?

That’s what they say ...good eh

[BlackPeter]

These four analysts seem to lower their target prices as the share price goes down.

But as long as punters agree with the numbers and gives them some warm fuzzies the guesses must good ones

It is not unheard of that analysts "validate" their forecasts by looking at the market price. You could even say that this might make some sense.

Anyway - show me one stock where the consensus price was rising while the market price was dropping (or vice versa) and I show you 10 where both moved in perfect harmony ;

[winner69]

Our Liz Coutts is involved with Global Women and Champions for Change.

That’s a big plus

[warren]

Our Liz Coutts is involved with Global Women and Champions for Change.

That’s a big plus

Thanks Winner. Indeed yes. Lets hope Liz is, like Krupskaya and her husband , single minded, driven to creating a mighty entity called OCA, undemanding in personal reward but huge on returns to the owners of the entity. So far so good