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  1. #4251
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Who knows? But ten years in a senior job with one company must be some sort of record these days!

    Can't argue with that !
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #4252
    …just try’n to manage expectations… Maverick's Avatar
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    Your neighbours / bowling mates must be on talking terms again with you by now Winner?

  3. #4253
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Beagle - in reply to you post that seems to have gone

    NZ Superfund could take just under half of Macca’s lot easy peasy in a few months

    Probably would see a far greater future return from Oceania than they would ever have got from MET
    Yes, I suspect they are not impressed by the board or management of MET and see the proposed takeover as a "get out of jail free" card.
    Infratil weren't impressed either. As you suggest, they will be flush with cash in the next few months and looking to reinvest that, probably in the same sector.
    I wonder if they're impressed by OCA's board and management or whether they will choose some other company in the sector ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-01-2020 at 07:02 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #4254
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    Your neighbours / bowling mates must be on talking terms again with you by now Winner?
    Yep a lot happier - even Turners not so bad for them at the moment

    Bit of a worry when punters like them get excited though ....a bit like when the shoeshine boy and taxi drivers start talking shares when the markets are at all time highs ....usually ends up in tears
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #4255
    Alley Cat Brain's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Yes, I suspect they are not impressed by the board or management of MET and see the proposed takeover as a "get out of jail free" card.
    Infratil weren't impressed either. As you suggest, they will be flush with cash in the next few months and looking to reinvest that, probably in the same sector.
    I wonder if they're impressed by OCA's board and management or whether they will choose some other company in the sector ?
    The board is elected by shareholders and again an again I see cases where the boards meet to eat their lunch. The shareholders collectively have the power to get rid of these guys. This seems to be a problem with the NZ listed companies there is no real accountability. In cases of poor governance shareholders sell their shares rather than doing something about it.

    To me the real task in investing is to invest with the best boards and management. This is not an easy task.

  6. #4256
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brain View Post
    The board is elected by shareholders and again an again I see cases where the boards meet to eat their lunch. The shareholders collectively have the power to get rid of these guys. This seems to be a problem with the NZ listed companies there is no real accountability. In cases of poor governance shareholders sell their shares rather than doing something about it.

    To me the real task in investing is to invest with the best boards and management. This is not an easy task.
    Agreed and the choices are somewhat limited
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #4257
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    OCA sell off potential
    ...with the Maquirie Group at 11year 50bn run since GFC... keep something in the back pocket for a rainy day.

    Still happy I sold half my SUM some time ago and got a heap of OCA. Hard for SUM to x2 - x5 over the next 10 years but OCA... I see potential.

    Better spread of risk too. Still a big fan on SUM. It's been a long time coming and this year has started with a mighty good run.

    Happy holder

  8. #4258
    Go The Warriors "This Year!"
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    Wonder if the NZ super fund and Infratil would do a deal with Macca's to soak up the rest of Macca's stake?
    A combined Retire Australia/OCA would give huge economies of scale...and with the MET takeover NZ Super could make a tidy play to stay invested within both the NZ and Aussie retirement sectors?
    Gives an easy exit for Macca's too....
    Just a thought....

  9. #4259
    …just try’n to manage expectations… Maverick's Avatar
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    The rise of OCA share price lately has been very welcome but even now after such a rapid jump in a short time , it significantly languishes its peers in proportion to their own SP jumps. I can only deduct two very simple reasons why this is the case.

    1. It still needs to demonstrate concrete evidence that its model works.
    2. It's model is not as good as its peers and doesn't justify the same ratings


    This Friday`s announcement will give solid guidance as to which answer is correct (or where abouts in between )

    I'm personally expecting a substantial lift in underlying profit because the multiple retarding factors last year that are now drivers.
    To explain;

    Last year they were hampered by emptying operational buildings by turning customers away (hurting revenue )and retaining inefficient staff ratios ( appearing as out of control staff expenses) while rebuilding and commissioning 3 major sites. Also they obviously can't sell what had not been finished.

    This HY, on day one, they have all of these 3 sites fully completed (actually had one month still to go on the Hamilton and Sands care suits), and selling down. All these three factors have fully reversed and are now working for us.

    Wait there is more….the two major site developments this FY are both non operating sites. In other words, no customers are being turned away and no staff being retained ‘on hold’.

    If my expectations of an underlying profit of around 34 million is even close then the above answer is “A” .I believe the market will start to accept this model and the “new kid” will start to be welcome into the fold and some good catchup will be in order.

    If I'm wrong and the answer above is “B” then I might have to start looking for a job “flying rubber dog **** out of Hong Kong”


  10. #4260
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    The rise of OCA share price lately has been very welcome but even now after such a rapid jump in a short time , it significantly languishes its peers in proportion to their own SP jumps. I can only deduct two very simple reasons why this is the case.

    1. It still needs to demonstrate concrete evidence that its model works.
    2. It's model is not as good as its peers and doesn't justify the same ratings


    This Friday`s announcement will give solid guidance as to which answer is correct (or where abouts in between )

    I'm personally expecting a substantial lift in underlying profit because the multiple retarding factors last year that are now drivers.
    To explain;

    Last year they were hampered by emptying operational buildings by turning customers away (hurting revenue )and retaining inefficient staff ratios ( appearing as out of control staff expenses) while rebuilding and commissioning 3 major sites. Also they obviously can't sell what had not been finished.

    This HY, on day one, they have all of these 3 sites fully completed (actually had one month still to go on the Hamilton and Sands care suits), and selling down. All these three factors have fully reversed and are now working for us.

    Wait there is more….the two major site developments this FY are both non operating sites. In other words, no customers are being turned away and no staff being retained ‘on hold’.

    If my expectations of an underlying profit of around 34 million is even close then the above answer is “A” .I believe the market will start to accept this model and the “new kid” will start to be welcome into the fold and some good catchup will be in order.

    If I'm wrong and the answer above is “B” then I might have to start looking for a job “flying rubber dog **** out of Hong Kong”

    Good post. I do expect this year an improved result, but assume that proper "harvest" will start next FY.

    Not too fuzzed with this financial round as long as it shows that both cost and sales clearly move each into a desirable direction;

    I suspect they will ;
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

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