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  1. #5441
    Junior Member Mufasa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by King1212 View Post
    My gut feeling said..it might be pull back as many will do profit taking....maybe not Monday but could see throughout the week. As many bought in low....now the time to sell at high...

    So ...let see aye
    Usually I would say I agree with this, but if those people brought in at lets say .40 - .60, then they are making a lot currently, and quite quickly and easily. I would be inclined to think that they will actually stay in. Those who brought in at .40 have already doubled their money, and for very little effort and very little time, they may triple their money soon. By the end of the year they may quadruple it. I don't think there will be that many profit takers from this stock for a while yet.

  2. #5442
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Last edited by winner69; 07-06-2020 at 12:17 PM.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  3. #5443
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Suppose yahoo always had crap data anyway
    Yahoo has it at .94 as well

  4. #5444
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Yahoo has it at .94 as well
    Not when I looked so I must be reading their interactive charts wrong

    But if in doubt do it yourself and the abacus says 94 ....yippee

    From what you said earlier does it appear that trading in a 100 to 111 range for some time might be as good as it gets this year
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  5. #5445
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    Quote Originally Posted by King1212 View Post
    My gut feeling said..it might be pull back as many will do profit taking....maybe not Monday but could see throughout the week. As many bought in low....now the time to sell at high...

    So ...let see aye
    I bought a few to average down to 98c. I will certainly be selling some should they reach ~110c. As they will become a bigger portion of my portfolio than I really want. Not sure I would call that profit taking. But same effect.

  6. #5446
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    Thanks for the detailed chart confirming the break up through the 100 day MA. I was just going visually off the direct broking one I posted a link for yesterday which indicated a break was imminent.

    Augers well for the future in my opinion. Previous trading and resistance was with the massive Macquarie overhang so that being behind us now is something that I think is very relevant going forward. My sense is NTA of $1.01 last year is one thing but NAV, (which is net asset value inclusive of developments work in progress, IP and some other stuff) of $1.15 as at 31 May 2019 is where this is headed in the near future.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  7. #5447
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Thanks for the detailed chart confirming the break up through the 100 day MA. I was just going visually off the direct broking one I posted a link for yesterday which indicated a break was imminent.

    Augers well for the future in my opinion. Previous trading and resistance was with the massive Macquarie overhang so that being behind us now is something that I think is very relevant going forward. My sense is NTA of $1.01 last year is one thing but NAV, (which is net asset value inclusive of developments work in progress, IP and some other stuff) of $1.15 as at 31 May 2019 is where this is headed in the near future.
    And wait there's more.......don't forget Beagle , there is another 8 cents of net asset value on top of the $1.15 waiting to be addded when the current new empty units on hand get leased for the first time.
    Last edited by Maverick; 07-06-2020 at 02:56 PM.

  8. #5448
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Thanks for the detailed chart confirming the break up through the 100 day MA. I was just going visually off the direct broking one I posted a link for yesterday which indicated a break was imminent.

    Augers well for the future in my opinion. Previous trading and resistance was with the massive Macquarie overhang so that being behind us now is something that I think is very relevant going forward. My sense is NTA of $1.01 last year is one thing but NAV, (which is net asset value inclusive of developments work in progress, IP and some other stuff) of $1.15 as at 31 May 2019 is where this is headed in the near future.
    Surely that NAV thingie will be close to $1.30 come May 2020 reporting

    Good stuff eh

  9. #5449
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    Listed retirement operators to a certain extent don’t make much (if anything) out of looking after old people ...all their profits and cash flows are generated from property related activities,

    It’s good that Oceania’s NAV apparently is increasing and maybe is a good metric to use to ‘value’ the company.

    But it begs the question whether this should be ‘discounted’ by how much it is costing to looking after old people. In Oceania’s case non-property cash flows over last two half years have been negative $25m. That’s quite a lot eh.

    Maybe based on this approach ‘fair value’ is less than NTA or NAV

    But then I’ve never really understood Oceania’s model and their financials remain obtuse so maybe looking at it this way is completely wrong.

    Maybe it’s best to act just dumb ...believe the story ....and hope like hell I make heaps over the next few years by hanging in there
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  10. #5450
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Listed retirement operators to a certain extent don’t make much (if anything) out of looking after old people ...all their profits and cash flows are generated from property related activities,

    It’s good that Oceania’s NAV apparently is increasing and maybe is a good metric to use to ‘value’ the company.

    But it begs the question whether this should be ‘discounted’ by how much it is costing to looking after old people. In Oceania’s case non-property cash flows over last two half years have been negative $25m. That’s quite a lot eh.

    Maybe based on this approach ‘fair value’ is less than NTA or NAV

    But then I’ve never really understood Oceania’s model and their financials remain obtuse so maybe looking at it this way is completely wrong.

    Maybe it’s best to act just dumb ...believe the story ....and hope like hell I make heaps over the next few years by hanging in there
    Yeah, this year's NAV less last years NAV and add on dividends paid and BINGO, that's their real earnings...that's makes their financial statements much more legible Taking a "dogged" approach to holding for many, many years makes profound common sense to me !
    Last edited by Beagle; 07-06-2020 at 06:02 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  11. #5451
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    One thing going for us is that Oceania have a new CFO with a background that might enable him to change how things are done and conjure up a boomer of a result.
    Last edited by winner69; 07-06-2020 at 06:38 PM.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  12. #5452
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    Hmm , i see a small pull back at some stage around 1.10 at least , maybe each 15 cent push has a small pull back built in.

  13. #5453
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    OCA Yahoo - are the stats accurate i hope so but we can download the data and do a recalc.

    oca.jpg

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    Do anyone have any thought of what the dividend might be? If cash flows are healthy and earning's are good then it would send a strong message if they raise the dividend from last year.

  15. #5455
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    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    Do anyone have any thought of what the dividend might be? If cash flows are healthy and earning's are good then it would send a strong message if they raise the dividend from last year.
    We will probably get 3.0 cents

    Dumb paying unimputed divies, even more so with negative cash flows and increased borrowings
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  16. #5456
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul View Post
    OCA Yahoo - are the stats accurate i hope so but we can download the data and do a recalc.

    oca.jpg
    That's a weekly closing price chart, Winner. The daily chart has the 100MA at 0.94
    Screen Shot 2020-06-08 at 8.17.31 AM.jpg
    Cheers

  17. #5457
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    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    Do anyone have any thought of what the dividend might be? If cash flows are healthy and earning's are good then it would send a strong message if they raise the dividend from last year.
    https://www.marketscreener.com/OCEAN...68/financials/

    This gives an idea how the dividends will be paid suggested by analysts. These are extraordinary times and no one can actually knows how they went throughout the COVID 19 financially to be able to pay a dividend.
    I feel that this time there won't be a 6 monthly dividend and maybe 3.5-4 cents for the entire year. Only my thought.

  18. #5458
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    Direct Broking has the 120 at about 98 and The Brillant Mr B is correct on that TA Chart. But a chartists recently called it into question for accuracy.

    I havnt downloaded the data since our custom software does the transaction files not the data analytics , not yet anyway and not expected to do that till 2021.

    i expect some here are experts with there charts.

  19. #5459
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul View Post
    Direct Broking has the 120 at about 98 and The Brillant Mr B is correct on that TA Chart. But a chartists recently called it into question for accuracy.

    I havnt downloaded the data since our custom software does the transaction files not the data analytics , not yet anyway and not expected to do that till 2021.

    i expect some here are experts with there charts.
    Mathematically the MA100 is 94 on daily closes
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  20. #5460
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    As for dividends i had the view that did OCA feel some pressure to strike a dividend with MAQ in mind.

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