OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

Previously 111 was strong resistance.

They say what was resistance when broken becomes a strong support level ...we don’t want to see 110 or below again do we

Let’s hope so eh ...or else TA goes out the window.

[Jerry]

Are there enough traders on the NZX for TA to really work on a statistical basis?

[BlackPeter]

Are there enough traders on the NZX for TA to really work on a statistical basis?

TA is based on statistics ... and statistics (like mathematics it is a subset of) always works ... it is just that with smaller numbers the margin of error increases.

What you probably want to ask is whether there are enough trades on the NZX to keep the margin of error within sensible bounds? Now, this depends on the individual share you are looking at and as well on the error margin you are happy to accept.

If you have 1000 uncorrelated trades a day for one particular share (bot trades are frequently correlated) the margin of error for statistical TA predictions would be around +/-3%. If you have only 100 trades a day the margin of error would be +/-10%. You need to decide yourself whether this margin of error (this is on top of the likelihood which TA gives you) is good enough for you.

Obviously - TA is not just pure statistics ... it is as well to a degree a self full filling prophecy (remember - the share market is a level 2 chaotic system - meaning traders are changing their and with that the systems behavior dependent on their knowledge about the system), which in my view will reduce the margin of error for smaller numbers (e.g. people will still panic if the SP falls through the MA200 - even if it is just based on a small number of trades).

Based on personal experience I'd say that TA on the NZX clearly does add value, but probably more so for the more liquid stocks ...

[limmy]

TA is based on statistics ... and statistics (like mathematics it is a subset of) always works ... it is just that with smaller numbers the margin of error increases.

What you probably want to ask is whether there are enough trades on the NZX to keep the margin of error within sensible bounds? Now, this depends on the individual share you are looking at and as well on the error margin you are happy to accept.

If you have 1000 uncorrelated trades a day for one particular share (bot trades are frequently correlated) the margin of error for statistical TA predictions would be around +/-3%. If you have only 100 trades a day the margin of error would be +/-10%. You need to decide yourself whether this margin of error (this is on top of the likelihood which TA gives you) is good enough for you.

Obviously - TA is not just pure statistics ... it is as well to a degree a self full filling prophecy (remember - the share market is a level 2 chaotic system - meaning traders are changing their and with that the systems behavior dependent on their knowledge about the system), which in my view will reduce the margin of error for smaller numbers (e.g. people will still panic if the SP falls through the MA200 - even if it is just based on a small number of trades).

Based on personal experience I'd say that TA on the NZX clearly does add value, but probably more so for the more liquid stocks ...

Excellent response, BP.

[Jerry]

A quiet day on the exchange perhaps, but only 159 trades on OCA; 88 on GMT; 17 on ARV today. Some of the bigger firms had in the hundreds, but very few, which was why I wondered at the value of TA. I can see the point on the US market or ASX where there are a statistically adequate number of trades, but for most of ours, I am cautious of its relevance. And yes, I agree, if there is general acceptance of its predictive value, self-fulfilling to a certain extent.
Thank you, BP, for the figures.

[Beagle]

Two weeks to go till the result. Market is saying the result will make guidance of underlying EPS of 8.42 cps but only just. Hope the market is wrong but I am in this for the long haul and believe the care service standard they provide is first rate and the shares are valued based on pretty attractive metrics for this sector.

[Lawstudent05]

Hi Beagle,

Would it be possible for you to show how the market values at 8.42cps, is the earning per share calculation? If so what are the numbers drawing into this, and where in the financial statements are they found?

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle,

Would it be possible for you to show how the market values at 8.42cps, is the earning per share calculation? If so what are the numbers drawing into this, and where in the financial statements are they found?

Too sick with a cold at the moment to go digging too far mate but I can tell you the IPO forecast was for underlying EPS of 8.42 cps, (going off memory). This puts OCA on a historical PE of 13.2 if they make their forecast. Forward PE for FY19 maybe 11.5 and gross dividend yield about 5.5% Its these somewhat speculative metrics I am guessing at for the current year which has driven my modest investment position.

[winner69]

Hi Beagle,

Would it be possible for you to show how the market values at 8.42cps, is the earning per share calculation? If so what are the numbers drawing into this, and where in the financial statements are they found?

To save Beagle finding it

https://stocknessmonster.com/announc....asx-3A469771/ page 7 of this you will find a number $51.4m

Page 7 has a $51.4m number

Oceania said a month or so they were on track to met IPO forecasts ......so result should be pretty close to that

So $51.4m divided by 610.4 million shares is an eps of 8.43 cents ...NOTE THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM BEAGLES NUMBERS

[Beagle]

To save Beagle finding it



Onhttps://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/oca.asx-3A469771/ page 7 of this you will find a number $51.4m


Oceania said a month or so they were on track to met IPO forecasts ......so result should be pretty close to that

So $51.4m divided by 610.4 million shares is an eps of 8.43 cents ...NOTE THIS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFETENT FROM BEAGLES NUMBERS

LOL its worth heaps more then Old sick dog's memory not too bad after all.