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  1. #5861
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Anecdotal accounts on the MET thread of high end housing selling like hot cakes at a serious premium to pre covid prices auger well for OCA in the future as a lot of their units in Auckland are at the higher end, e.g. Meadowbank and the Sands).

    Coutts tells me I might have overcooked my security cost estimate yesterday...generally didn't run security through the night.

    The 30 June window for Australian Institutions keen to book tax losses for the Australian 2020 tax year on some / all of their stake they bought from Macquarie at $1.20 has now closed so hopefully we should see some easing of selling pressure from tomorrow onwards.
    Thanks for the explaination.
    I can see lots of other positives for the SP-NZ population-5 million and rising,lower interest rates likely to be long-lasting,MET SP rising,Ryman result etc.
    Feels oversold and like you looking forward to July .

  2. #5862
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    Some advice sought please. I've completed the first iteration of financial statement analysis to get the valuation and set the following parameters. is it too much/little? The outlook is for 5-years.

    riskfree rate (T-Bill) - 3.5%
    Market Risk premium - 7%
    Equity Beta 1.2 (in 2019 it was 1.1)

    So, cost of capital is 11.90%

  3. #5863
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    Quote Originally Posted by moka View Post
    There is nothing new about lockdowns. Every winter there are lockdowns in a few NZ rest homes because of norovirus. The safety of the residents overrides the rights of visitors to visit during an infection. Wouldn’t you be upset if your family member was infected by an unwell visitor?
    ...
    I am referring to the rights of the resident patient and next of kin, not to the "right" of visitors to just pop in for a casual visit to a resident. Of course every facility should always minimise the risk of spreading infections and viruses.

    Preventing next of kin and those holding power of attorney from access to the very ill and those at end of life is serious denial. Provided they use PPE and other precautions taken, I see no reason for such a denial.

  4. #5864
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paradox View Post
    Some advice sought please. I've completed the first iteration of financial statement analysis to get the valuation and set the following parameters. is it too much/little? The outlook is for 5-years.

    riskfree rate (T-Bill) - 3.5%
    Market Risk premium - 7%
    Equity Beta 1.2 (in 2019 it was 1.1)

    So, cost of capital is 11.90%
    Risk free rate is the 10 year Govt stock rate - I suggest you use 1%.
    Market risk premium has traditionally been 6% as far back as Adam was a boy.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  5. #5865
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    Bastardisation of a thread on the old twitter (bored analyst banter) -

    is Value investing is buying what you think is $1.20 for 90 cents?

    And then complaining why everyone else doesn’t think your 90 cents is worth $1.20

    No value investing is buying what you think is worth $1.20 for 90 cents but it turns out you bought something worth 70 cents.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  6. #5866
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Risk free rate is the 10 year Govt stock rate - I suggest you use 1%.
    Market risk premium has traditionally been 6% as far back as Adam was a boy.
    MRP varies over time so saying it’s been 6% since Adam as a boy not quite right.

    These days a lot of real investment managers and finance people are add an additional risk premium, especially in the short term, to take account of the inherent uncertainty in future outcomes. They keep this specific additional risk premium as a separate item so they can assess what impact it has.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  7. #5867
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    im waiting for .65 then ... highly unlikely ... but then i would not have though this whole WWP was a likely.

  8. #5868
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    Likewise you could argue with interest rates at 200 year lows a market risk premium of 6% is no longer warranted especially given TRINA, (there really is no alternative to stocks).

    What else are you going to do, buy corporate bonds or bank term deposits at 1.8% ?

    Back to OCA, I wonder what EQT will offer for OCA when they have finished the MET takeover and look to combine these companies and reap maybe $10m per annum in synergies ? $1.30 ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 01-07-2020 at 10:53 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  9. #5869
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul View Post
    im waiting for .65 then ... highly unlikely ... but then i would not have though this whole WWP was a likely.
    I wouldn't hold your breath mate and I might be ahead of you in the queue
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  10. #5870
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    yes CNBC gave us TRINA about a month ago? well the burn from the virus in the states is out of control and we may see some big sells off that simple force the market down.

    since the only stock we sold in the march sell off was AIR.. im sure you are ahead of us in the queue which we are not in yet. We only now have one portfolio holding a small amount. We sold most at 1.04.
    Last edited by Waltzingironmansinlgescul; 01-07-2020 at 11:34 AM.

  11. #5871
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Likewise you could argue with interest rates at 200 year lows a market risk premium of 6% is no longer warranted especially given TRINA, (there really is no alternative to stocks).

    What else are you going to do, buy corporate bonds or bank term deposits at 1.8%?
    That’s why these things are all rather subjective and there’s no right answer.

    For each individual MRP is different as it’s related to what return they desire

    I suppose 6% is about right for these days

    Of course if one was interested one could work out the implied MRP as it is today.
    Last edited by winner69; 01-07-2020 at 11:18 AM.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  12. #5872
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paradox View Post
    Some advice sought please. I've completed the first iteration of financial statement analysis to get the valuation and set the following parameters. is it too much/little? The outlook is for 5-years.

    riskfree rate (T-Bill) - 3.5%
    Market Risk premium - 7%
    Equity Beta 1.2 (in 2019 it was 1.1)

    So, cost of capital is 11.90%
    Cost of capital is the variable you twiddle to suit your agenda. Bit like discount rate (ie as an input rather than derived).

    For OCA I suspect some investors are happy to hold a bit of money in a stock that pays a relatively stable 5-6% div on the macro basis the capital/business is more likely to grow than shrink over 5 years regardless of some calculation riddled with assumptions.

  13. #5873
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    Quote Originally Posted by dibble View Post
    Cost of capital is the variable you twiddle to suit your agenda. Bit like discount rate (ie as an input rather than derived).

    For OCA I suspect some investors are happy to hold a bit of money in a stock that pays a relatively stable 5-6% div on the macro basis the capital/business is more likely to grow than shrink over 5 years regardless of some calculation riddled with assumptions.
    thats a mighty assumption that its a stable dividend
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  14. #5874
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    "stable Div" thats what we have wondered for a while now...we think its been paying out too high a Div.
    Last edited by Waltzingironmansinlgescul; 01-07-2020 at 01:06 PM.

  15. #5875
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    thats a mighty assumption that its a stable dividend
    Maybe a relationship exists between ‘assumptions’ and ‘wishful thinking’ / hope
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  16. #5876
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    thats a mighty assumption that its a stable dividend
    ...true but I did say 'relatively'. Likelihood of any div anywhere next year requires some level of the act of assuming. Bank deposit rates included...

  17. #5877
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    .................................................. Back to OCA, I wonder what EQT will offer for OCA when they have finished the MET takeover and look to combine these companies and reap maybe $10m per annum in synergies ? $1.30 ?
    $1.30 would be great
    Having said that, I've always wondered if OCA (or any of the other listed RV operators for that matter) ever considered buying MET for the 'instant' revaluation gains and synergies.
    I guess I'll never find out the answer to that tho!

  18. #5878
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    Quote Originally Posted by dubya View Post
    $1.30 would be great
    Having said that, I've always wondered if OCA (or any of the other listed RV operators for that matter) ever considered buying MET for the 'instant' revaluation gains and synergies.
    I guess I'll never find out the answer to that tho!
    The dog might ask SUM hard questions at the forthcoming special meeting for MET about who the other two interested parties were and if they're still in the frame or was this just a load of "creative talk" to spur EQT along ?

    Interesting situation developing with OCA...it seems the daily share price performance shows a fairly strong correlation with the number of new virus cases in N.Z.
    Zero new cases the share price goes up a bit and when there's 2 or more new cases the share price goes down a bit. Is the market really this fickle or is this apparent share price reaction a figment of my sometimes over active imagination ?
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  19. #5879
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    Dont know,but how about you and your pack going paws up and doing a possum covid symptom cluster; keep one eye open on the share price on a screen.

  20. #5880
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    I thought that was an interesting question, but not sure whether this shows a correlation, if anything it was negatively correlated as the case counts rose, so was the share price rising. Then fell as the case counts declined, then rose as case counts went to zero. Now it's jumping around for no apparent reason related to case counts.

    Screen Shot 2020-07-01 at 2.37.46 PM.jpg

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Interesting situation developing with OCA...it seems the daily share price performance shows a fairly strong correlation with the number of new virus cases in N.Z.
    Zero new cases the share price goes up a bit and when there's 2 or more new cases the share price goes down a bit. Is the market really this fickle or is this apparent share price reaction a figment of my sometimes over active imagination ?

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