OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

Rym and Sum make a development profit, and profit on resales, no matter what the property market does..

Yea I believe some do and some don't, guess though when the property market peaks those profits on resales wont be as good as has been.

[Beagle]

Yea I believe some do and some don't, guess though when the property market peaks those profits on resales wont be as good as has been.

Vaygor1 has had a lot of good stuff to say about this which explained why throughout the GFC RYM's profits increased every year.
Perhaps PM him and he might be so kind as to direct you to his post on RYM about the subject. I don't have any concerns. I view any pullback on SUM as a buying opportunity.
Forward PE of around 16.5 based on underlying EPS (my estimate of 32 cps for 2017) for a stock of this caliber is compelling value in my carefully considered view.
Based on SUM's fundamentals and growth the only reason I see to invest in any other stock in this sector is diversification but I am fine with a few MET and a 14.7% portfolio position in SUM, enough for me so won't be investing in this new float.

[NZSilver]

I have applied for Oceania, after what I admit was a little less research than I like i think there is upside potential in this one.

[winner69]

Vaygor1 has had a lot of good stuff to say about this which explained why throughout the GFC RYM's profits increased every year.
Perhaps PM him and he might be so kind as to direct you to his post on RYM about the subject. I don't have any concerns. I view any pullback on SUM as a buying opportunity.
Forward PE of around 16.5 based on underlying EPS (my estimate of 32 cps for 2017) for a stock of this caliber is compelling value in my carefully considered view.
Based on SUM's fundamentals and growth the only reason I see to invest in any other stock in this sector is diversification.

House prices fell 2008/09 ......RYM NPBT fell as well (and underlying profit hardly moved)

It was only a blip in the long term trend ....over time house prices always go up they say .... and for the foreseeable future RYM et all will continue to build new units and resell the ones of the dearly departed

Sometimes I think punters think too much and complicate things so much they don't see the big picture

[peat]

You are most probably right about the leaky buildings etc,however I am guessing they have not had the "influence" they wanted.

thats what I heard on the radio this morning....comments from Mark B

[Beagle]

House prices fell 2008/09 ......RYM NPBT fell as well (and underlying profit hardly moved)

It was only a blip in the long term trend ....over time house prices always go up they say .... and for the foreseeable future RYM et all will continue to build new units and resell the ones of the dearly departed

Sometimes I think punters think too much and complicate things so much they don't see the big picture

We agree 100% that the greatest global financial crisis since the great depression of 1929 -1934 only caused a temporary blip in the long term trend. SUM's the long term situation up very well I believe

Edit - I think the main point Vaygor1 (without wanting to put words in my friends mouth so please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong Vaygor1), was making was that on average old folks stay in their units 7-10 years so when resold the average unit has 7-10 years worth of capital gains built into it so any temporary dip in the property market is ironed out and eliminated through the average price gain over the average term. In addition, a dip in the market gives a good company like RYM or SUM an opportunity to acquire future development sites a lot cheaper than would otherwise be the case as you often find a disproportionate drop in bare land development site prices compared to the more moderate drop in individual houses. You could therefore legitimately make the case that the occasional correction is actually beneficial to highly skilled operators and developers because they can get new sites at much cheaper prices therefore boosting future development margins

[Joshuatree]

Any news anyone on the deal, pricing etc ? Was expecting an offer from my broker today

[peat]

we've closed our book, and our bid has been placed.

not expecting much else to happen today the offer document says

The Final Price is expected to beannounced and posted on www.shareoffer.co.nz/oceaniahealthcare on or about 12 April 2017

[Beagle]

I thought it was curious timing of Infratil to dump their MET stake in the middle of this IPO process. One would have thought they'd get more for it at a time when the market wasn't being asked for ~ $200m already by a capital raise in this sector.

[Joshuatree]

What do you make of these figures Roger you will be able to interpret them better than me.The company has Net liabilities of 132.9 million, 267.2 million in shareholders loans from Macquarie plus they are carrying 274 million in bank loans.

Has this changed much?. Couta you work in this industry in some capacity; do you have an opinion on Oceania as an investment.? Ive been pointed to chris lees latest newsletter where he is saying 82c or thereabouts is the price , at the lower end.