OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Antipodean]

Hard to know - could be a number of factors.

However just looking at today's trading though - with a VWAP of 98.9 and a string of tiny sales at 98.0 after each 99.0 trade - infers something/someone is at work.

Myself I don't sweat 1c here or there as I am looking for a long term hold and doubled down on OCA today.

[Food4Thought]

Hard to know - could be a number of factors.

However just looking at today's trading though - with a VWAP of 98.9 and a string of tiny sales at 98.0 after each 99.0 trade - infers something/someone is at work.

Myself I don't sweat 1c here or there as I am looking for a long term hold and doubled down on OCA today.

Doubled down some months ago too. "This is going to be cool"

Super happy holder

[winner69]

Doubled down some months ago too. "This is going to be cool"

Super happy holder

All this doubling down seems risky behaviour

I once doubled down at the blackjack table ...and it worked out great even though mate told me aftrwards it was a stupid thing to do because the odds were aginst me

though in you guys case doube down just means becoming more resolute in your thinking you're on to a winner ...yes

[trader_jackson]

C’mon Forbar ....we need you to put out a glowing report and a BUY

They aren't allowed to do that winner, you should know that... only ARV can have a BUY rating - still hasn't helped ARV, nobody cares about this rating, or the $1.50 something price target on ARV.
Probably also don't care that Forbar reaffirmed their Neutral rating on OCA

today

with a $1.07 12 month price target.

[Food4Thought]

All this doubling down seems risky behaviour

I once doubled down at the blackjack table ...and it worked out great even though mate told me aftrwards it was a stupid thing to do because the odds were aginst me

though in you guys case doube down just means becoming more resolute in your thinking you're on to a winner ...yes

Too true WINNER. I'm certainly not counting my chickens before they hatch. I have a long term outlook on this one.

My reasoning is of course my view. I see much better potential in OCA than I had in other investments and I only cut them by 2/5. This has given my numbers game a serious boost and my potential return a healthier outlook. Average return. I was deeply invested in SUM and would consider I still have a decent finger in the pie there for an average joe who has many many years to go before retirement. I am also looking at potential dividend increases and long term outlook. I know how much the older generation LOVES a good divi play and also buying in when the price is relative to a stable divi return. I use to buy term deposits a lot, yet they got minimal and this has caused a lot of cash to find growth opportunities elsewhere.

OCA has indicated positive change and development. Which to me is great news and currently delivers the best value for $ I can find. I love steady slow growth versus playing the chance game which often doesn't work out. For me in the past it made me take bigger risks, without the time to energy to participate and also anticipations on a luck basis.

I much prefer the tortoise than the hare.

[Ggcc]

Great report.

Key points I found were

We exceeded the IPO Forecasts for FY2017 and are on track to meet our IPO Forecast for FY2018 with y.o.y growth of ~35% in Underlying EBITDA.

Current 2018 they expect a dividend of 4.6% and growing each year based on today’s share price. So growth of 30% (keeping a little more realistic in case 35% is not achieved) y.o.y would be a dividend of 5.98% in 2019, 7.77% in 2020 and 10.11% in 2021 based on today’s sp!!!! Let alone the capital gain you will get.

Aged care supply not meeting up with population growth and Aged care demand outstripping supply

Improving development margins

Current pipeline is 2,123 (after delivering 127 units and bed during FY2018). This is an increase of 34% over the IPO pipeline of 1,674 when we listed in May 2017 (and an increase of 26% compared to the pipeline of 1,782 as at November 2017).

[couta1]

Announcement yeasterday was a veiled message that they are on track to exceed guidance, needs to be balanced by the Elephant in the room,being a 330million odd share overhang.

[Ggcc]

Announcement yeasterday was a veiled message that they are on track to exceed guidance, needs to be balanced by the Elephant in the room,being a 330million odd share overhang.

Which there would be institutions buying a part of those shares, only if the elephant has the intention to sell such a great thing....... maybe even at a slight premium

[Beagle]

Great report.

Key points I found were

We exceeded the IPO Forecasts for FY2017 and are on track to meet our IPO Forecast for FY2018 with y.o.y growth of ~35% in Underlying EBITDA.

Current 2018 they expect a dividend of 4.6% and growing each year based on today’s share price. So growth of 30% (keeping a little more realistic in case 35% is not achieved) y.o.y would be a dividend of 5.98% in 2019, 7.77% in 2020 and 10.11% in 2021 based on today’s sp!!!! Let alone the capital gain you will get.

Aged care supply not meeting up with population growth and Aged care demand outstripping supply

Improving development margins

Current pipeline is 2,123 (after delivering 127 units and bed during FY2018). This is an increase of 34% over the IPO pipeline of 1,674 when we listed in May 2017 (and an increase of 26% compared to the pipeline of 1,782 as at November 2017).

Very good work mate. I'm interested to get my snout into more once we see what the elephant in the room is going to do in due course.

[Food4Thought]

Very good work mate. I'm interested to get my snout into more once we see what the elephant in the room is going to do in due course.

Here is my gauge on the matter.

Currently the return is not high enough.

Potential...Implement a share buy back scheme. DRIP. Cancel bought back shares. Increase share price. Increase value of investment. Receive dividend for some years. Smile. Sell out at a lucrative profit. Or have it as a great addition to their income stream. Potentially to a larger healthcare provider, or another opportunity that will give them a healthy return on investment.

Trunk up for the "Lucky' OCA Elephant in the room.

P.s, I am not referring to myself as the elephant.