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  1. #111
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    Would have thought we would have heard something by now... Broker Firm offer opens first thing tomorrow...

  2. #112
    IMO
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    My Broker(craigs) said this arvo but no contact atp.

  3. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    My Broker(craigs) said this arvo but no contact atp.
    Price to low? Oceania deciding to pull it at the last minute? Surely not...

    I believe there was 'huge demand/interest', but at what price(s) this demand was at, I am not sure (huge demand for Tegel as well, but only at $1.55)

  4. #114
    percy
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    I wonder if IFT brought it.??

  5. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Has this changed much?. Couta you work in this industry in some capacity; do you have an opinion on Oceania as an investment.? Ive been pointed to chris lees latest newsletter where he is saying 82c or thereabouts is the price , at the lower end.
    JT if you read back through this thread, you will see that I have a preference for the property development companies as an investment. Oceania has potential but not near as much as Sum and Rym IMO. A predominant care model is an expensive beast to run.

  6. #116
    Aspiring to be an Awesome Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    I wonder if IFT brought it.??
    If they did would that make IFT a good share to hold to have access to Oceania?

  7. #117
    percy
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    Most probably.
    I don't think IFT selling their MET holding ,means they are finished with the retirement sector in NZ.In fact, I think they will end up being big investors in this sector.How they do that will be interesting.
    Yet I think Couta1's post #115 is how I see the best way to invest in this sector,for the reason he gave.
    Last edited by percy; 12-04-2017 at 08:22 PM.

  8. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    I wonder if IFT brought it.??
    From ift investor day sides:
    ".... this implies a high bar for investments that fall outside our current growth platforms, we will remain ready to act if markets disruptions provide highly attractive opportunities "

  9. #119
    IMO
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    JT if you read back through this thread, you will see that I have a preference for the property development companies as an investment. Oceania has potential but not near as much as Sum and Rym IMO. A predominant care model is an expensive beast to run.
    Thanks. Thats why i asked you why ARV has outperformed all others with its high predominant care model?.
    With all the land and a target reduction from 67 to 44% care and with Ryman currently 56% care there looks to be ample growth there for Oceania to perform well against the others. 82c would be a pretty int entry point imo but hey it might do an ARV and get even cheaper after listing before performing; good entry then eh?

    Trader Jackson quote.
    In Recent Forsyth report on the retirement sector:
    Needs Based (Being serviced apartments and care beds as a % of total portfolio) is a potential indicator as to how reliant on government funding a village is:
    Arvida: 74%
    Metlifecare: 18%
    Oceania: 72%
    Ryman: 56%
    Summerset 32%

    Trader Jackson quote."To give you an idea of how ARV and Oceania have (or likely to) change a few years after listing:

    Arvida:
    Prospectus (December 2014 - 17 villages):
    Care Beds: 952
    Retirement Units: 812 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 46%)
    54% / 46% split
    1764 Total

    March 2017 - 26 Villages
    Care Beds: 1461
    Retirement Units: 1285 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 54%)
    53% / 47% split
    2746 Total

    March 2019 Forsyth Forecast - 26 Villages
    Care Beds: 1511
    Retirement Units: 1517
    50% / 50% split
    3028 total

    Oceania:
    Prospectus (March 2017):
    Care Beds: 2638
    Care Suites/Care Studios: 241 ('high margin' care beds)
    Retirement Units: 1071 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
    67% / 6% / 27% split
    3950 total

    March 2019: (Total Consented or Under Construction)
    Care Beds: 2284
    Care Suites/Care Studios: 580 ('high margin' care beds)
    Retirement Units: 1669 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
    50% / 13% / 37% split
    4533 total

    March 2021?: (Total Consented, Under Construction and in Planning and Consenting phase)
    Care Beds: 2284
    Care Suites/Care Studios: 877 ('high margin' care beds)
    Retirement Units: 2050 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
    44% / 17% / 39% split
    5211 total"
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 13-04-2017 at 08:00 AM.

  10. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Thanks. Thats why i asked you why ARV has outperformed all others with its high predominant care model?.
    With all the land and a target reduction from 67 to 44% care and with Ryman currently 56% care there looks to be ample growth there for Oceania to perform well against the others. 82c would be a pretty int entry point imo but hey it might do an ARV and get even cheaper after listing before performing; good entry then eh?

    TJ.
    In Recent Forsyth report on the retirement sector:
    Needs Based (Being serviced apartments and care beds as a % of total portfolio) is a potential indicator as to how reliant on government funding a village is:
    Arvida: 74%
    Metlifecare: 18%
    Oceania: 72%
    Ryman: 56%
    Summerset 32%

    TJ .To give you an idea of how ARV and Oceania have (or likely to) change a few years after listing:

    Arvida:
    Prospectus (December 2014 - 17 villages):
    Care Beds: 952
    Retirement Units: 812 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 46%)
    54% / 46% split
    1764 Total

    March 2017 - 26 Villages
    Care Beds: 1461
    Retirement Units: 1285 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 54%)
    53% / 47% split
    2746 Total

    March 2019 Forsyth Forecast - 26 Villages
    Care Beds: 1511
    Retirement Units: 1517
    50% / 50% split
    3028 total

    Oceania:
    Prospectus (March 2017):
    Care Beds: 2638
    Care Suites/Care Studios: 241 ('high margin' care beds)
    Retirement Units: 1071 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
    67% / 6% / 27% split
    3950 total

    March 2019: (Total Consented or Under Construction)
    Care Beds: 2284
    Care Suites/Care Studios: 580 ('high margin' care beds)
    Retirement Units: 1669 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
    50% / 13% / 37% split
    4533 total

    March 2021?: (Total Consented, Under Construction and in Planning and Consenting phase)
    Care Beds: 2284
    Care Suites/Care Studios: 877 ('high margin' care beds)
    Retirement Units: 2050 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
    44% / 17% / 39% split
    5211 total
    This seems very similar to 2 of my earlier posts (numbers 50 and 52)...

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