OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

**trader_jackson** · 23-07-2018, 04:55 PM

Originally Posted by Beagle

I'm not fussed with Forbar's FY19 eps guess.

Neither am I, in fact I hope they are wrong big time - they have been waay wrong with ARV, for about a year now they have been saying the share price should be north of $1.50... so should give you/me/Mr Market confidence they have a track record of being way out
Not just relating to ARV's valuation either by the way

**Beagle** · 23-07-2018, 05:57 PM

Originally Posted by trader_jackson

Neither am I, in fact I hope they are wrong big time - they have been waay wrong with ARV, for about a year now they have been saying the share price should be north of $1.50... so should give you/me/Mr Market confidence they have a track record of being way out
Not just relating to ARV's valuation either by the way

LOL I couldn't agree more. Many years ago I used to be a client of Forbar. One of several reasons I left was the "quality" of their research. All I will say further on the matter is I have no regrets whatsoever about leaving.

**winner69** · 23-07-2018, 07:15 PM

If 4 guru analysts have a target of 106 to 109 it would suggest OCA is heaps over priced at 111 (allowing for them being targets presumably a year out). (The bible 4 traders)

**winner69** · 23-07-2018, 08:07 PM

All they said a month or so ago was .....On track to meet IPO Forecast for year ended 31 May 2018 •

Wonder what actually means? what IPO forecast ..... Revenue? NPAT?, EBITDA?, Underlying EBITDA?, Underlying Profit?

Maybe all of them ...I don't know

**value_investor** · 23-07-2018, 09:28 PM

Originally Posted by Beagle

Looks like the market is saying they will only "meet" forecast guidance of 8.43 cps underlying profit. If they make that guidance that puts them on a trailing PE of 13.1.
Maybe that's where its at until they can demonstrate more growth and get some more runs on the board ?

The only reason why I have a small parcel of ownership at this moment and not a larger one is because while they may reach their IPO forecasts. I haven't got enough to go on in terms of FY19 results and beyond. This is why I see it priced at a lower valuation than the others in the sector. Is this going to be a 5%, a 15% or a SUM type game of 25% growth year on year. Unfortunately, the company is too young in terms of available information to make any calls.

The land bank is impressive and a lot can be done, however the amount of units being built at scale has not hit the heights on some of the others in the industry. While the demand in the care industry will come, we'll see how much of it comes to OCA and when.

**Beagle** · 24-07-2018, 09:49 AM

Originally Posted by value_investor

The only reason why I have a small parcel of ownership at this moment and not a larger one is because while they may reach their IPO forecasts. I haven't got enough to go on in terms of FY19 results and beyond. This is why I see it priced at a lower valuation than the others in the sector. Is this going to be a 5%, a 15% or a SUM type game of 25% growth year on year. Unfortunately, the company is too young in terms of available information to make any calls.

The land bank is impressive and a lot can be done, however the amount of units being built at scale has not hit the heights on some of the others in the industry. While the demand in the care industry will come, we'll see how much of it comes to OCA and when.

Fair comment and I agree its a young company which needs to put more runs on the board. Management have good credentials and skin in the game and their land holdings and degree of consented developments shows promise but its like a filly showing a bit of promise at the trials, we'll see how it goes in its first proper lap around the track later this week. SUM other companies have a much longer track record of staying power in terms of growth and definitely deserve to trade at a pretty sizeable PE premium until OCA proves its capabilities over time.