OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Xerof]

tomorrow winner, probably

[winner69]

The overhang is in the news

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...e-overhanghtml

I think this ‘overhang’ is just one big red herring but punters tend to think too much these days and worry too much.

[Lewylewylewy]

Risks here are the average age of properties + the fact its brownfield dev. Could mean a big cost ahead (not a problem for long term investors). I also have concerns about the fact that they don't pay as much as SUM, which i see as exposed risk to future govt policy.

Next year will bring more confidence on the business model for short and medium term investors. Action on the overhang will also be telltale in the shorter term. A bad result due to high costs one year could unduly see OCA being marked as a dog, which is why I sold out (I'd prefer less short term risk with the current political environment so i can exit with a profit for the year if required).

Other than that, they have a great position as the top carer (which i see as risk mitigating, but also a feel good investment), they have great accountants and management. The SP is cheap for long term investors, but also potentially cheap for short and medium term investors who accept some sort term risk.

Currently im sticking with SUM, buying the dips (possibly currently percieved by the market as fully priced). Interestingly SUM seem to be perceived as a defensive stock at the moment (imo).

[bull....]

The overhang is in the news

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...e-overhanghtml

I think this ‘overhang’ is just one big red herring but punters tend to think too much these days and worry too much.

think the overhang will hang over the share price until resolved, who wants to buy and then they sell out at a big discount to market?

[Beagle]

Risks here are the average age of properties + the fact its brownfield dev. Could mean a big cost ahead (not a problem for long term investors). I also have concerns about the fact that they don't pay as much as SUM, which i see as exposed risk to future govt policy.

Next year will bring more confidence on the business model for short and medium term investors. Action on the overhang will also be telltale in the shorter term. A bad result due to high costs one year could unduly see OCA being marked as a dog, which is why I sold out (I'd prefer less short term risk with the current political environment so i can exit with a profit for the year if required).

Other than that, they have a great position as the top carer (which i see as risk mitigating, but also a feel good investment), they have great accountants and management. The SP is cheap for long term investors, but also potentially cheap for short and medium term investors who accept some sort term risk.

Currently im sticking with SUM, buying the dips (possibly currently percieved by the market as fully priced). Interestingly SUM seem to be perceived as a defensive stock at the moment (imo).

SUM companies have a proven history of high growth, others need to confirm their batting average over time. I see this as fairly priced on a trailing PE of 13 with potential for PE expansion as they prove up their business model over the next 2-3 years.

[percy]

I recently brought back in taking my average cost per share up a bit.
Earl Gasparich impressed me at the presentation I attended late last year.
Chair,Elizabeth Coutts has impressed me for a number of years as an Ebos director.
Director Gregory Tomlinson has impressed me as a major shareholder/director of HBL.He has a proven history in the retirement sector and has real "skin on the line" with OCA.
As OCA gets more runs on the board I expect I will add to my modest holding.

[King1212]

I recently brought back in taking my average cost per share up a bit.
Earl Gasparich impressed me at the presentation I attended late last year.
Chair,Elizabeth Coutts has impressed me for a number of years as an Ebos director.
Director Gregory Tomlinson has impressed me as a major shareholder/director of HBL.He has a proven history in the retirement sector and has real "skin on the line" with OCA.
As OCA gets more runs on the board I expect I will add to my modest holding.

Good on you Percy!! I can really find any good value shares now at NZX as all of shares are over priced. I think OCA is still good value.

[Blue Skies]

Let's see, top senior management (tick) with their own skin in the game (tick) award winning service delivery (tick ) (usually results companies get more than their fair share of the business), excellent land bank (tick) good development pipeline (tick) exponentially increasing tail winds in this sector (tick) results to date excellent (tick), under ave PE (tick) BUT everyone want 'runs on the board' as well! haha

oops, only trouble is, as soon as there's 'runs on the board' might have to pay a lot more for the shares.

Just speculation of course and they might go out for a duck!

I don't imagine there will be much change after tomorrow, but do think the share price will double at some stage, just a question of how long it takes.

[Blue Skies]

I recently brought back in taking my average cost per share up a bit.
Earl Gasparich impressed me at the presentation I attended late last year.
Chair,Elizabeth Coutts has impressed me for a number of years as an Ebos director.
Director Gregory Tomlinson has impressed me as a major shareholder/director of HBL.He has a proven history in the retirement sector and has real "skin on the line" with OCA.
As OCA gets more runs on the board I expect I will add to my modest holding.

Thanks Percy, that's great to hear, really bodes well for the future of this company

[percy]

[QUOTE=Blue Skies;722319]

oops, only trouble is, as soon as there's 'runs on the board' might have to pay a lot more for the shares.

The way I invest is to do as much research as I can,then if I like what I find I buy a small position.
If I am wrong I sell,if results prove I am right I buy more.
Yes you pay more,but it is always best to add to a winning position,while cutting your loses..
Comes down to companies doing what they say they will do.