OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[King1212]

The bean counting hound was slow out of the blocks this morning. Get my snout into this properly, shortly, and should have a forecast later today.
At very first glance I get about $75 -$80m based on development build uplift alone. Then there's resales at higher embedded value...I'll probably get to where you are but need another coffee and some more time to think about it first Heck even if they get to my first glance mid point estimate that's 12.6 cps underlying and put a PE of 13 on that and we're off to the races...

Update. Key assumptions in my FY19 forecast. Doubling of build rate gives doubling of development profit, gives $21m uplift, (assume margins the same).

Looking forward for your thoughts after well deserved coffee break Beagle!

[Joshuatree]

Payment Facts I could only dream about Winner, when I was in business !!!!!

Tell you what with re $1200 a week every week of the year(monthly) coming out to look after a relative in care it sure is a GREAT cashflow for the carers and i dont like being in a minority but thats the way it is, with no hidden assets and am just a little proud about that.

[percy]

Well at 9.45 am this morning when I placed my buy order "at open", it looked as though I would be paying $1.12 per share.In fact I ended up paying $1.15.
Happy at that.

[whatsup]

Well at 9.45 am this morning when I placed my buy order "at open", it looked as though I would be paying $1.12 per share.In fact I ended up paying $1.15.
Happy at that.

Makes yesterdays buyers who had the goulies @ $1.09 look top of class this morning .

[Beagle]

F19 underlying earnings should be about $85to $90m shouldn’t they ...if not more

I am sticking with $75-80m for now. I think it could surprise to the upside of that range but I would rather err on the side of conservatism at this stage mate. At $80m underlying this would give a 80/52.1m = 53.6% increase in underlying EPS to 13.1 cps. I'll let you do the maths if the market decides given this growth and the very robust long term outlook with strong demographic tailwinds that a multiple of 14 times underlying earnings is appropriate this time next year Possibly worth noting that the shares currently trade cum a 2.6 cps dividend so one isn't really paying $1.16 for next years earnings, just $1.134 putting the stock on a forward PE of just 8.6...interestingly that's about where it floated too cheaply last year.

I remain of the view that once Macquarie's have clarified their position this has very strong potential to outperform over the year ahead.

[Joshuatree]

Its full steam in Tauranga with a $250 million eco friendly retirement village all go in papamoa. Generus Living Group who already have a 250 house village are just about to start the new 350 house village. I Like the environmental theme . solar power, , composting, commercial climate controlled glasshouse, market garden, fruit trees , charging bays etc. take note OCA,RYM,SUM etc you are behind the trend.

[Beagle]

Its full steam in Tauranga with a $250 million eco friendly retirement village all go in papamoa. Generus Living Group who already have a 250 house village are just about to start the new 350 house village. I Like the environmental theme . solar power, , composting, commercial climate controlled glasshouse, market garden, fruit trees , charging bays etc. take note OCA,RYM,SUM etc you are behind the trend.

Do they offer the full continuum of care including hospital and dementia care and have they earned a stellar reputation over a long period of time for excellent care ? If they don't do all the basics extremely well, (I have no knowledge either way) the environmental stuff is just a creative way to appear to be caring for the environment when I put it to you all that REALLY matters for people at this stage of their life is the quality of the facilities and care. They all have gardens and a pleasant environment.
Could it just be that the eco side to this village is just a marketing gimmick ?

[Nasi Goreng]

I am sticking with $75-80m for now. I think it could surprise to the upside of that range but I would rather err on the side of conservatism at this stage mate. At $80m underlying this would give a 80/52.1m = 53.6% increase in underlying EPS to 13.1 cps. I'll let you do the maths if the market decides given this growth and the very robust long term outlook with strong demographic tailwinds that a multiple of 14 times underlying earnings is appropriate this time next year Possibly worth noting that the shares currently trade cum a 2.6 cps dividend so one isn't really paying $1.16 for next years earnings, just $1.134 putting the stock on a forward PE of just 8.6...interestingly that's about where it floated too cheaply last year.

I remain of the view that once Macquarie's have clarified their position this has very strong potential to outperform over the year ahead.

You don't think there is anyone out there with $250M who would buy a stock with a forward PE of 8.6 with huge tailwinds? I don't see this like a large cap dog where a large shareholder is going to dump the stock at any minute. More like there will be a hungry placement done off market... Macquarie will know what they are doing.

[Joshuatree]

Do they offer the full continuum of care including hospital and dementia care and have they earned a stellar reputation over a long period of time for excellent care ? If they don't do all the basics extremely well, (I have no knowledge either way) the environmental stuff is just a creative way to appear to be caring for the environment when I put it to you all that REALLY matters for people at this stage is the quality of the facilities and care.

Its more than creative its reducing their carbon footprint as we all should be(like your tree planting)
I will find out what they will actually be composting.

[Beagle]

You don't think there is anyone out there with $250M who would buy a stock with a forward PE of 8.6 with huge tailwinds? I don't see this like a large cap dog where a large shareholder is going to dump the stock at any minute. More like there will be a hungry placement done off market... Macquarie will know what they are doing.

I couldn't agree more. I think there will be very robust demand for any potential placement organised off market, especially if its at a slight discount to the current market price. I for one would really appreciate the opportunity to double down at say $1.10 in any possible placement.