sharetrader
Page 166 of 313 FirstFirst ... 66116156162163164165166167168169170176216266 ... LastLast
Results 3,301 to 3,320 of 6249
  1. #3301
    Doggedly sniffing out more food Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,560

    Default

    One company slightly disappointed and the other really impressed. I am unsure why anyone is surprised by their relative share price movements since they reported ?
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  2. #3302
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Location
    Napier
    Posts
    1,162

    Default

    OCA will have its day. If not this year then next year. I can wait and I am sure many longterm holders are not worried, maybe optimistic at the prospect of investing more money if the price drops further.

  3. #3303
    Turn and burn Maverick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Location
    wanganui
    Posts
    361

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    You're are worry Maverick

    Profit downgrade from $75m to $64.5m

    Downgrades usually come in threes many say

    Don't be too pessismistic with your next downgrade or two....bearing in mind F18 underlying earnings were $52m

    I see your reported profit figure of $50m to $65m is a lot less than F18 .....hmm

    Maybe the pros have done the sums as well and thats why the share price is languishing
    Hey Winner (and if there's anyone else still holding), ive tried to narrow my predicted OCA fy 19 gaping wide profit expectation band of 50-64.5 mil.
    New sales from OCA is the crucial factor to where about within this band the reported number will sit. Soooo......I've been putting some attention on the relationship between unit deliveries and sales. I've been modelling from ARV selling rates as they are OCA`s closest cousin and have been around a bit longer with more historical stuff to work with. I'm still sticking with a "real" OCA profit of 64.5 million although they would have to sell all of there newly delivered units in fy19, this of course won't be a reality. I've already stated I think it will head line between 50 - 64.5mil entirely depending on how many delivered units actually get sold FY19.
    I now reckon it will be reported close to 55 million. (Interestingly for me, Beagle has said about this number already) The remaining 9.5 million profit will be disguised as "empty stock" and reappear as profit in fy20.

    55 mil at a PE of 13.5 = share price $1.22. (Result comes out 4 months from now).

    IMO the Pe should then be around 16 but it would seem hell will freeze over first.
    Of course all of this is just my opinion and currently there is no logic to today's share price anyway other than someone bloody minded shareholder/s wants out.
    Last edited by Maverick; 19-03-2019 at 01:21 PM.

  4. #3304
    One Fearsome Feline winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    27,015

    Default

    Maverick — so ‘forecast’ of ~$75m down to ~$65m and now down to ~$55m

    Downgrades come in threes they say ...so is next one $51.6m ...the same as last year

    No or low growth company ...hype not turning into reality.

    Such oe formance OCA deserves to be on ARV multiples ......PE of about 10 to 11 ....shareprice 85centsvto 95 cents

    Jeez looks like my ‘investment’ has become more of a ‘speculation’ - should not have got sucked in by the hype....hoping like hell now OCA will ‘have its day’
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  5. #3305
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Canterbury
    Posts
    6,028

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Maverick — so ‘forecast’ of ~$75m down to ~$65m and now down to ~$55m

    Downgrades come in threes they say ...so is next one $51.6m ...the same as last year

    No or low growth company ...hype not turning into reality.

    Such oe formance OCA deserves to be on ARV multiples ......PE of about 10 to 11 ....shareprice 85centsvto 95 cents

    Jeez looks like my ‘investment’ has become more of a ‘speculation’ - should not have got sucked in by the hype....hoping like hell now OCA will ‘have its day’
    Mmh - I guess profit can grow this year or (more likely) next year, but if you think this is a no growth company - do you assume they never will sell the units they deliver?

    This does not make sense to me unless somebody stops people from growing older and magically inflates the housing supply. The 37 houses Labour deliverd in their first year won't cut it and so house prices unlikely to drop.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  6. #3306
    Veteran novice
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    7,244

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Mmh - I guess profit can grow this year or (more likely) next year, but if you think this is a no growth company - do you assume they never will sell the units they deliver?

    This does not make sense to me unless somebody stops people from growing older and magically inflates the housing supply. The 37 houses Labour deliverd in their first year won't cut it and so house prices unlikely to drop.
    I agree, BP. Nothing has changed in terms of the bigger picture but as has been said before, this is a term investment - and not necessarily one for the traders.

  7. #3307
    Turn and burn Maverick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Location
    wanganui
    Posts
    361

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Maverick — so ‘forecast’ of ~$75m down to ~$65m and now down to ~$55m

    Jeez looks like my ‘investment’ has become more of a ‘speculation’ - should not have got sucked in by the hype....hoping like hell now OCA will ‘have its day’
    i think you've it got around the wrong way Winner..."looks like you're speculation has become more of an investment"

    the profit will be there, just will need to be more obvious under people's noses for the current market to see it . Seems only a few actually read their info to the point of understanding it. That just might take another year.....BUT ITS THERE!!!!!

    I figure W69, your just bored today and taking the piss....your too smart for that post to be serious.

  8. #3308
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Posts
    247

    Default

    I think some risks are overlooked a little on this thread. Mainly the staff levels, there are 2550 staff at OCA who in total look after 3600 residents. The seems like a lot of staff and like most of us they all want more money!

    Regardless $1 does seem like decent buying so I've joined the hype and purchased decent sized holding today.

  9. #3309
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Canterbury
    Posts
    6,028

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    I think some risks are overlooked a little on this thread. Mainly the staff levels, there are 2550 staff at OCA who in total look after 3600 residents. The seems like a lot of staff and like most of us they all want more money!

    Regardless $1 does seem like decent buying so I've joined the hype and purchased decent sized holding today.
    Question would be - do they have too much staff working for them, given that they need to care for a lot of vulnerable people 24/7? I would not think so, but people like couta would have probably a better idea.

    If the staff ratio is right, than I guess it is at the end just the customer (or indirectly the government) who has to pay for this cost. Not a risk to the business given that every competitor would have the same cost unless some of them like to lose money.

    Ah yes, and welcome on board. I think you got your ticket for a reasonable price (though - admittedly - my average buy in is lower);
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #3310
    One Fearsome Feline winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    27,015

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post

    the profit will be there, just will need to be more obvious under people's noses for the current market to see it . Seems only a few actually read their info to the point of understanding it. That just might take another year.....BUT ITS THERE!!!!!

    I’ve read there stuff, read stuff on here, read other stuff, talked to an Oceania guy, done a fair bit of modelling and still can’t see it.

    Yes next year might be better than this year and all that but not to the extent some people ar3 saying.

    I have an issue with the sales price trends but even though i’ve sort of worked out why but to me it just doesn’t make sense they can have 52 more sales and make about the same in underlying profit (and heaps less at Comprehensive Income level)

    So in the meantime I will remain as one of the majority (who are rather dumb) and not one of the clever few who understand what they present.

    Hoping it all comes right one day ...really hoping
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  11. #3311
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Canterbury
    Posts
    6,028

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I’ve read there stuff, read stuff on here, read other stuff, talked to an Oceania guy, done a fair bit of modelling and still can’t see it.

    Yes next year might be better than this year and all that but not to the extent some people ar3 saying.

    I have an issue with the sales price trends but even though i’ve sort of worked out why but to me it just doesn’t make sense they can have 52 more sales and make about the same in underlying profit (and heaps less at Comprehensive Income level)

    So in the meantime I will remain as one of the majority (who are rather dumb) and not one of the clever few who understand what they present.

    Hoping it all comes right one day ...really hoping
    I think you will find wide agreement that they could improve on making their numbers easier to digest ...

    Maybe a question for the next AGM?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  12. #3312
    Doggedly sniffing out more food Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,560

    Default Obfuscate

    Maybe seeing as they're running homes for the bewildered they think they should keep shareholders in the same state lol
    https://www.bing.com/search?q=obfusc...&setlang=en-US

    Also rather opaque, (which requires more sniff the breeze and take a guess at least from this dog) is exactly how many of the units being delivered in 2H FY19 will actually be delivered to incoming residents before balance date and how many are delivered into finished stock. Its all about as clear as some of those Rotorua mud pools. Literally you can get a range for underlying profit from $40m to $70m depending upon how many units are signed and sold before balance date. I think its more likely in the middle of that range $50m to $60m but frankly I think its anyone's guess.

    I think the main thing to concentrate on while we travel this long journey is that the projects are on time and on budget as confirmed by the company in its late January 2019 presentation. This is no easy thing in the Auckland construction market, just ask Fletcher executives lol

    The profit from these new units will happen, its just a matter of which year. Those selling at 99 cents look like they may be capitulating but who knows where this goes in the short term.
    Last edited by Beagle; 19-03-2019 at 05:13 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  13. #3313
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Canterbury
    Posts
    6,028

    Default

    Not that it would matter for investors ... however - SP closed today 2 cents (at 101) above the days LOW (at 99) with quite good overall depth.

    I take this as a good sign.

    Might be last opportunity to buy OCA close to $1 ;
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  14. #3314
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    409

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    I think some risks are overlooked a little on this thread. Mainly the staff levels, there are 2550 staff at OCA who in total look after 3600 residents. The seems like a lot of staff and like most of us they all want more money!

    Regardless $1 does seem like decent buying so I've joined the hype and purchased decent sized holding today.
    Just quietly I thinks that's why you'll find the development of AI & robotics is moving v quickly in this industry at the moment. (Not in the interface directly with the patient or resident, but in the supporting roles a step or two back) . Within a couple of years this could be a game changer in terms of costs.

  15. #3315
    One Fearsome Feline winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    27,015

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Not that it would matter for investors ... however - SP closed today 2 cents (at 101) above the days LOW (at 99) with quite good overall depth.

    I take this as a good sign.

    Might be last opportunity to buy OCA close to $1 ;
    Always good to finish above the open and the days low ...must be a candle name for that but at least not an abandoned baby one

    The tide has turned ....back to 120 before we know it

    Be a bit happier at that price as I wasn’t one of the lucky ones who took a punt at the ipo or in the 80s. Punting does work sometimes.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  16. #3316
    Turn and burn Maverick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Location
    wanganui
    Posts
    361

    Default

    ok, I`m going to call that...... another irregular huge off market transfer gone through, boom. Seen this a bit lately , so the way I see it is that the sp is being manipulated down on market ( it defies any logic at $1) to set up the buy price for these significant off market trades to go through at.
    Last edited by Maverick; 20-03-2019 at 01:27 PM.

  17. #3317
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Canterbury
    Posts
    6,028

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    ok, I`m going to call that...... another huge off market transfer gone through, boom. Seen this a bit lately , so the way I see it is that the sp is being manipulated down on market ( it defies any logic at $1) to set up the buy price for these significant off market trades to through at.
    Always a good opportunity for retail investors to buy more. I don't think retail investors are in general disadvantaged compared to the big boys ... it is just that many don't seize the opportunities when they are around.

    Discl: holding lots;
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  18. #3318
    Turn and burn Maverick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2017
    Location
    wanganui
    Posts
    361

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Always a good opportunity for retail investors to buy more. I don't think retail investors are in general disadvantaged compared to the big boys ... it is just that many don't seize the opportunities when they are around.

    Discl: holding lots;
    Completely agree BP, so now we have a wide gap between the next sellers up for grabs. The normal sized pile at $1.02 and nothing else until $1.05.
    So if the off market guy has completed his operation then the price will rapidly rise north. But if he has more jiggery-pokery then we can expect a huge pile to appear for sale at $1.03 to keep a lid on things.....lets see what happens next....oooooh so interesting.

  19. #3319
    One Fearsome Feline winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    27,015

    Default

    A down day ......we don’t have an abandoned baby candle pattern forming do we? Very bearish.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  20. #3320
    Membaa
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Paradise
    Posts
    3,175

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    A down day ......we don’t have an abandoned baby candle pattern forming do we? Very bearish.
    That's right, we don't. The chart is definitely bear, but tossing out spooky candle names that are just plain wrong, might not be helping us understand what the chart is saying.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •