OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[BobbyMorocco]

If we have a downturn and property prices drop all retirement villages will suffer because what happened after GFC is that people were reluctant to sell up and move into a retirement village because they would “lose” money on their property if they did so e.g. their property was worth $400K in 2007 and only worth $300K in 2009. So they decide to sit tight and not sell until property prices rise again. Or they couldn't sell their home even at a lower price because the property market just dried up. Units at retirement villages such as Metlifecare often took 1 – 2 years to sell, sometimes longer after the crash.

Yes, I'm not doubting they will all suffer if we have a similar scenario play out in the future, but my view is that OCA will suffer less. OCA's aged care is not so much about "Hey let's sell our house, move into a unit that's cheaper, and retire in a nice little village." It's more about "Hey Mum is sick, she needs care. Let's find her a place where they'll take care of her." This side of OCA's business is needs based and is somewhat defensive IMO.

[Patient Panda]

Very strange It seems 4 traders have ifrs eps of 77.6 in 2018 falling to an expected 2019 eps of 64.2.

Unlikely that would happen and I think thats what is giving such weird predicted outcomes.

edited for clarity

[percy]

Very strange It seems they have eps of 77.6 in 2018 falling to an expected 2019 eps of 64.2.

Unlikely that would happen and I think thats what is giving such weird predicted outcomes.

Comparing apples to oranges Craigs have RYM "Normalised" eps 2018 ...41 cps.....2018.47cps and 2020 58cps.????????????

[Patient Panda]

Comparing apples to oranges Craigs have RYM "Normalised" eps 2018 ...41 cps.....2018.47cps and 2020 58cps.????????????

Ah the ones I quoted in the last post were IFRS EPS numbers from 4traders. Those ones from Craigs are underlying eps numbers. Both useful and both should show a strong similar trend.

good to keep us on our toes!

[winner69]

Recent research I have seen shows.;
…………………………………………...RYM...………………………….SUM...…………………… …….OCA
NTA...………………………………….$3.88...………………………..$3.48...……… ………………$1.04
P/NTA...………………………………….3.2...……………………………2.2...………………… ……...1.1

One has to be careful.

The NTA used in this table are not comparing apples to apples

For instance the $1.04 quoted for OCA is a thing OCA made up called NAV which is Net Adjusted Value. OCA actual NTA is only $0.86

Changes the multiples a bit but the rankings still remain OCA SUM RYM and that at the end of the day is how the market sees the relative value of each. In a year (or two) I doubt if that order will change.

[winner69]

Lol! Fair enough given you are already a Cool Bear! Guess I will just have to be happy with Rupert the Awesome Bear

Change your profile .....”One awesome bear” is better and more representive than “Senior Member”

[winner69]

FNZC research has a history of being the best in NZ.
I am sure they will be very disappointed you found fault with it.

Was just pointing out something that was wrong ....if going to say NTA why not use reported NTA instead of something else

You keep reminding us to check the facts eh ...I just did that

[percy]

Was just pointing out something that was wrong ....if going to say NTA why not use reported NTA instead of something else

You keep reminding us to check the facts eh ...I just did that

They note;
"We used NAV for OCA as this takes account of the CBRE value of care assets."
I take that to mean they are trying very hard to compare apples to apples.

[RTM]

As per www.4-traders.com
………………………………………………..………...ROA...…………………...ROE...…… ………..PE...……………..Yield
Ryman …….....2019e...……………………...4.45%...……………..10.9%...… ………….19.2...…………..1.89%
………………... 2020e...……………………...4.49%...……………...11.4%...…………... 17.1...…………..2.18%
Summerset....2019e...……………………...4.42%...……………...10 .5%...…………...14.4...…………..1.68%
……………….. 2020e...……………………...4.48%...……………….10.8%...…………….13 .1...…………..1.98%
Oceania...……..2019e...………………….4.30%...……………...9.96 %...…………...10.9...…………..4.25%
…………….. ... 2020e...……………………...4.48%...……………..11.2%...……………….9 .7...…………….4.96%

Thanks Percy. Looking at the yield reminds me why I like Oceania so much. Love getting a decent dividend yield along with a reasonable chance of growth of my capital.
Sums up why many of us bet on the share market rather than having our money in a bank.

[winner69]

They note;
"We used NAV for OCA as this takes account of the CBRE value of care assets."
I take that to mean they are trying very hard to compare apples to apples.

Thanks Percy ...was going to look see if they made explanation notes

Now I have to see if the reported NTAs for RYM and SUM include these sort of items to check if it is indeed apples for apples.