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  1. #1741
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    Someone is still capping the SP went to $1.15 then quickly slammed down to $1.12, must be Elephant whispers.

  2. #1742
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    Had a good read of today's meeting notices. I am very impressed with the pragmatic and clearly broken down progress in the pipeline in all the levels of care accommodation developments. I feel the management team have very good processes and time tabeling that will provide the consistent growth investors are looking for.
    I was particularly pleased to see the care beds are now being sold under the well known villa ORA model. That's the trick to the whole industries profitability. Plus the occupant pays high rent for the weekly care bed use where the villas are about $100/wk.
    Its win win for everyone including the occupants.
    Loving the comments about the care beds being needs based (and urgently)rather than a lifestyle choice ie villa.
    So here we have a business that has increasing: assets, cashflow, profitability. Very low debt levels. It has long term high growth while paying a decent dividend. Guaranteed growing customer base. It supplies an award winning, quality service/product in an industry that is just too hard to start from scratch into.
    And whatever way the PE is measured (I see it as 13.5).........its bargain basement cheap.
    Why would Macquarie give its majority shareholding away at this level? Not saying that they won`t, who knows their mind, but I can't see why they would need to offer it at a discount.
    Great post Mav. Fundmentals are all there and I for one am ready and waiting to double down...just waiting to see if Kashin lives up to the name I've given them...
    Last edited by Beagle; 29-08-2018 at 12:21 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #1743
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Someone is still capping the SP went to $1.15 then quickly slammed down to $1.12, must be Elephant whispers.
    Hi All,

    Could you please explain the Elephant Whispers analogy and the background to it?

  4. #1744
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    Hi Beagle. From what I've read on the thread the general consensus is that "Kashin" will be sold off in an off market transaction(s) and its likely we won't know untill after its done. With that in mind, aren't we all best to double down sooner than later as the share price is currently held down by this big ol Elephant or would you expect the share price to drop following the sell off, thus, waiting till then to snap some up?

    Or additionally, your captial is best spent elsewhere untill the sell off has been completed as the share price isn't going to be doing much untill Macquarie make their move.

  5. #1745
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur View Post
    Macquarie "owns" this as manager for an infrastructure fund which has numerous smaller investors. They were talking of winding the fund up next year, but the fund also has a larger illiquid asset - an unlisted port in Poland DCT Gdansk. I am guessing that until they have an exit strategy for the port, they will hold the retirement care.
    Thanks for that Arthur. I wasn't aware of the details of Macquarie's ownership.

    Apparently two infrastructure funds (GIF ii and iii) according to their website.

    https://www.macquarie.com/sepas/serv...PROTOCOL=https

    https://www.macquarie.com/sepas/serv...PROTOCOL=https

    And they are now in the process of selling off the Polish port in GIF ii. They don't appear to be wanting to sell it too cheaply either according to this:

    https://inframationgroup.com/emea-ma...ajor-port-sale

    I reckon they won't be selling OCA off too cheaply either, but just that's my opinion.
    Last edited by dubya; 29-08-2018 at 01:08 PM.

  6. #1746
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valiant View Post
    Hi Beagle. From what I've read on the thread the general consensus is that "Kashin" will be sold off in an off market transaction(s) and its likely we won't know untill after its done. With that in mind, aren't we all best to double down sooner than later as the share price is currently held down by this big ol Elephant or would you expect the share price to drop following the sell off, thus, waiting till then to snap some up?

    Or additionally, your captial is best spent elsewhere untill the sell off has been completed as the share price isn't going to be doing much untill Macquarie make their move.
    Gidday mate. I'm hoping to get some of the action in a possible future private placement. Probably miss out because I'm just a modest retail investor so will probably double down one way or the other either through the private placement or more likely immediately thereafter on market. The present SP suppression does present quite a conundrum doesn't it ! Does one buy now knowing they're already getting a good price or hang out and hope the price is affected by the placement and buy immediately thereafter ? I really don't know so I have a half way, (to where I want to be), position in this one at present.
    Last edited by Beagle; 29-08-2018 at 01:13 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #1747
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    My strategy on OCA is buying it in small parcels. It's a steady stock that moves one or two cents in a reasonable (Subject to person) timeframe. Plus it is giving out dividend constantly, so make it a good long term hold in my portfolio.

    Disc. Holder since IPO. Currently making up 10% of my portfolio.

  8. #1748
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    Hi Beagle, another question for you, re MacQ selling the 250M shares, do you think the predicted future fall in the NZD may be causing some hesitation by foreign buyers, & may be why the elephant is still in the room?

  9. #1749
    …just try’n to manage expectations… Maverick's Avatar
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    I would never assume to answer for Beagle but my 2 cents is that "McCashin" has always been there. While the share price is obviously hamstrung by the overhang it has still consistently risen from .98 cents to 1.14. ($1.16 by the weekend?)
    The share price is easily worth $1.40 all day long at present but the overhang continues to suppress it.
    Those that have been waiting for the "McCashin sell off time" to get a bargain aare already 17% behind.
    It's just like getting your garden pruning done. "you can wait for the right month of year to prune,or.... you can just do it when you are in the mood, at least you got it done." (quote from Mrs Maverick)

  10. #1750
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Skies View Post
    Hi Beagle, another question for you, re MacQ selling the 250M shares, do you think the predicted future fall in the NZD may be causing some hesitation by foreign buyers, & may be why the elephant is still in the room?
    Gidday mate. Kiwi weakness has at least to a fair extent actually been a US strength story. Cross rate with the $A hasn't changed a lot and I think the most likely buyers from Kashin doing its thing will be Kiwi and Australian institutions so I doubt the perception of a major currency change is a huge factor but I certainly wouldn't rule it out as ANZ for example have a forecast of US 62 cents and they could be right ! I think in general terms the fluidity of the policy of the current Government is a concern. They have over 100 different working groups looking at all sorts of things so despite Jacinda saying that she understands business's need for policy certainty the number of working groups badly undermines that and makes it mere lip service. She did look good getting cosy with Chris Luxon though but is this merely "suitwashing" as Simon Bridges claims ?

    At the end of the day institutions have to invest their ongoing incoming Kiwisaver funds somewhere and I think that fundamentally the case for investment in OCA at the current price is very strong.
    Last edited by Beagle; 29-08-2018 at 01:34 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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