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  1. #2641
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Good news must be getting out there .....looks like we might through 108 today

    Anybody reckon 120 by half year announcement?
    There's no doubt about it. Sharetrader sure moves the market in OCA!


  2. #2642
    Member Onion's Avatar
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    I'm guessing that the $1 bid I put in before Christmas is not going to be filled.

  3. #2643
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onion View Post
    I'm guessing that the $1 bid I put in before Christmas is not going to be filled.
    Nice try but do you realise that Santa Claus is fictional
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  4. #2644
    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    Number of development sales trend by half year from H117 with forecast (mine but based on reading stuff here) looks like this —

    H117.....25
    H217.....27
    H118.....23
    H218.....77
    H119.....90
    H219.....160


    All says we are heading to greatness and becoming rich as
    Last edited by winner69; 09-01-2019 at 01:32 PM.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  5. #2645
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Nice try but do you realise that Santa Claus is fictional
    What? And I was so good last year too.

  6. #2646
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Number of development sales trend by half year from H117 with forecast (mine but based on reading stuff here) looks like this —

    H117.....25
    H217.....27
    H118.....23
    H218.....77
    H119.....90
    H219.....160


    All says we are heading to greatness and becoming rich as
    180 in 2H FY19 is my estimate.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  7. #2647
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    180 in 2H FY19 is my estimate.
    Jeez — that 180 is heaps more than I got

    Those numbers plus resales would give total sales of 500 units....wow.

    I’m feeling more confident now.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  8. #2648
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    If they did achieve 500 total sales then underlying profit will be over $100m (last year $52m)

    At $100m that’s an eps of about 16 cents

    And the share price languishes under 110

    Jeez, sounding more like beagle the more sums I do.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  9. #2649
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...631/290269.pdf

    Yeap. See page 9 from Nov 2018 investor presentation - On track to deliver 272 units this year.
    The split of about 90 and 180 is the answer I got to that question when I asked Earl Gasparich for the split after his presentation to the NZ shareholders association Auckland meeting late last year.
    $1.08 is almost stealing eh winner, especially cum a 2.5 - 3.0 cent divvy next month
    Last edited by Beagle; 09-01-2019 at 02:44 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  10. #2650
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    Anybody notice ARV is now near its all time peak. This is OCA`s closet cousin. Just happened to have an "underpinning" great report come out a month ago which OCA is also about to do in 2 weeks.

  11. #2651
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Jeez — that 180 is heaps more than I got

    Those numbers plus resales would give total sales of 500 units....wow.

    I’m feeling more confident now.
    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    Anybody notice ARV is now near its all time peak. This is OCA`s closet cousin. Just happened to have an "underpinning" great report come out a month ago which OCA is also about to do in 2 weeks.
    Hmmmm...talk like that makes me wonder if I have enough...already my #1 listed investment position.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  12. #2652
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    Anybody notice ARV is now near its all time peak. This is OCA`s closet cousin. Just happened to have an "underpinning" great report come out a month ago which OCA is also about to do in 2 weeks.
    Still can’t believe ARV’s greatest supporter in t_j didn’t include ARV in the picking comp ...his master stroke was including OCA
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  13. #2653
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    I'm not at $100m underlying for FY19 YET but well worth noting that last year they made development profits of $21.1m on just 131 units and this year they have 272 so that alone on a linear basis suggest development profit will more than double this year. Add in slightly increased resales based on a 20% uplift last year in embedded value and I foresee about $75m underlying profit at this stage which is a profit rise of about ~ 50%, similar to last years stellar profit increase and gives about ~ 13 cps underlying profit.

    Forward underlying PE is the cheapest I have ever seen for any stock in this sector at any stage including during the GFC. Looks extremely cheap to me especially cum a reasonable dividend next month.
    Last edited by Beagle; 09-01-2019 at 03:39 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  14. #2654
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    mentioned 1.04 might bring out the buyers looks to be the case also around the 38% - 50% level retracement from the high. needs to reclaim above 1.08 to maintain the uptrend from listing i reckon
    Last edited by bull....; 09-01-2019 at 03:45 PM.
    bull

  15. #2655
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    Beagle ....I think we are talking different things ...like you mention 131 units for last year while I’m using 100 for last year

    You talking units delivered and I’m talking units sold. You keep reminding me no gains until sold eh.

    Maybe by estimate of 250 new unit sales is a bit outrageous but whatever it’s going to be a huge number, especially relative to last year.

    Good to see share price up today ......probably go up again tomorrow as well
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

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