OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

Do you guys ever consider the macro story where NZX and affecting global markets are at all time highs, vulnerable to serious corrections? Or is it just rose coloured spectacles for years hence based on local demographics (which are undeniably supportive). I think that the next great reckoning will not be kind to any share, and consequently have a much more conservative outlook and cautious approach. Or are you so confident in your abilities to exit a disaster, that you might as well ride the wave until it closes out?

I think you answered the question for some of us ...and I have often been called a 'permabear' and a 'gloom and doom merchant' and such things on this site and rightfully so.


There will be a big crash (the great reckoning) one day .....this half cycle has been going far too long

[couta1]

Do you guys ever consider the macro story where NZX and affecting global markets are at all time highs, vulnerable to serious corrections? Or is it just rose coloured spectacles for years hence based on local demographics (which are undeniably supportive). I think that the next great reckoning will not be kind to any share, and consequently have a much more conservative outlook and cautious approach. Or are you so confident in your abilities to exit a disaster, that you might as well ride the wave until it closes out?

When is this disaster coming, this year, next year or the one after? PS-The 10-2 yield curve will guide the way.

[McGinty]

Do you guys ever consider the macro story where NZX and affecting global markets are at all time highs, vulnerable to serious corrections? Or is it just rose coloured spectacles for years hence based on local demographics (which are undeniably supportive). I think that the next great reckoning will not be kind to any share, and consequently have a much more conservative outlook and cautious approach. Or are you so confident in your abilities to exit a disaster, that you might as well ride the wave until it closes out?

Good question BB and I agree the next reckoning will be a shocker.

In my case I will stick to my system (based on TA signals). If the global music starts to slow down, then the TA should give us a heads up (as the smart money move to the sidelines) before it stops.
I'm never getting married to a stock (been to many ugly break-ups), so only ever looking to enjoy the good times and sit out the bad.

Topped up in OCA today (now my largest holding), but still in 1/3 cash as there are less opportunities out there at the mo.

[winner69]

When is this disaster coming, this year, next year or the one after? PS-The 10-2 yield curve will guide the way.

Not much between 2 yr and 10 yr rates at the moment

[couta1]

Not much between 2 yr and 10 yr rates at the moment

Around a year away from inverting aye winner, might run for the hills when it hits the zero line.

[percy]

I think you answered the question for some of us ...and I have often been called a 'permabear' and a 'gloom and doom merchant' and such things on this site and rightfully so.


There will be a big crash (the great reckoning) one day .....this half cycle has been going far too long

NZX Index 10 years ago was 3187.
………………….5..years …………….4740.
…………………..3 years...………….5648
…......………...on Friday...……….9270
Over the past 10 years the index has nearly tripled.
Most serious investors would have quadrupled their money over that time.
I know the past four years I have been nervous,and altered my portfolio to "high conviction" stocks,baring in mind, the stocks that recovered quickest after GFC were stocks that continued to pay increasing dividends.
Opportunities are still there for us.Eleven days ago I brought OCA at $1.10, [to add to my existing holding].Today OCA are $1.18 an increase of 7.27%,.That would take me two years or more to earn with bonds or bank deposits.A no brainer.
Today should the NZX fall 20%, it would drop to 7416, which would still be 31% higher than it was 3 years ago,.
A market correction would bite me if GNE,HBL,MEL,MVN,OCA,PGW,TRA and SPK stopped their divies for more than 2 or 3 years.
So long as their divies keep up, and or grow, their share prices are only academic to me.Fun to watch yes,but the end game must be attaining a portfolio that affords you to retire,without ever having to sell any shares to live on,and being able to rely on increasing dividends to support your lifestyle.

[Patient Panda]

A great post Percy. The opportunity cost of not being invested is high. Time in the market is more important than timing the market.

if you are paying more attention to how your actual businesses are doing and the cash and value they are generating a correction or shareprice fluctions really will not bother you much if at all

[Beagle]

A reminder that OCA is a needs based business not a wants based business.

[percy]

A great post Percy. The opportunity cost of not being invested is high. Time in the market is more important than timing the market.

if you are paying more attention to how your actual businesses are doing and the cash and value they are generating a correction or shareprice fluctions really will not bother you much if at all

Time out of the market during the past 10,5 or 3, years has cost dearly.
Yes I try to pay great attention to the business.Is it in the right sector,are the directors honest,do they do what they say they will do.?
Does the business generate solid cash.Does it have a good balance sheet.Why are they better than their competitors?
Having owned my own businesses, I know most days I would have wanted thousands of dollars for them,while some days I would have gladly given them away.!!!
Same with good businesses on the share market.Some days/years people give them away,while other days they pay over the top for poor businesses.
I believe OCA has good directors and management,are in a good sector,have a strong balance sheet,generate cash,will pay an increasing divie,and do what they say they will do.Can't ask for more. than that.

[Vaygor1]

.... So long as [ones] divies keep up, and or grow, share prices are only academic to me. Fun to watch yes,but the end game must be attaining a portfolio that affords you to retire,without ever having to sell any shares to live on,and being able to rely on increasing dividends to support your lifestyle.

Here here Percy. Spot on.