Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
I agree....and the howling Beagle will be worse tomorrow...
Full moon, full cry now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjec0JWEXU
Seriously...I had a good think about this one overnight. I see about 11 cps underlying for FY19. At $1.23 that puts OCA on a current year PE of just 11.2. Long term I just think you can't go wrong buying a top reputation healthcare provider on those fundamental's. As I said last week I am very impressed with Earl Gasparich as CEO. Demographics provide strong tailwinds for this company.
Disc: Done a Couta1 now in terms of the size of my stake and Beaglized him in the process
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
$1.23 - great stuff
Arvida going from cheap, to stupidly cheap
OCA have had a bit of SP surge recently. I already have a small holding (4% of my share portfolio) in OCA, a larger holding in SUM but nothing invested in ARV. I would like to invest more in one of ARV or OCA but cannot decide between the two. My current preference is to buy a similar size holding in ARV as my holding in OCA.
From ANZ secs:
ARV sp 1.35 nta 1.23 div yield 3.7% p/e 8.76
OCA sp 1.22 nta 0.88 div yield 3.2% p/e 9.6 (Oops it’s already gone up another cent!)
Is ARV now better value than OCA. Or has OCA got better growth prospects?
* I would be a long term investor (at least 5+yrs)
Underlying profit of ARV to 31/3/18 $33m on 413.9m shares gives 7.97 cps. At $1.35 that puts them on a historical underlying PE of 16.94, similar to SUM who have a vastly longer track record of underlying profit growth.
OCA based on underlying EPS of 8.5 cps from memory even at $1.23 are trading on a historical underlying PE of 14.48.
We know its all about forward PE and I am expecting a very substantial lift in underlying EPS for OCA this year. Long term the churn rate on the care suite model is more than double that of apartments or independent living units so I am expecting long term outperformance in this sector from OCA.
T.J. will tell you ARV are very cheap but I for one am not convinced and see SUM as better value and OCA as much better value and both having at least as good or better growth prospects. SUM's strength is in its independent living model which forms the dominant part of its business.
OCA are at the other end of the spectrum focusing on late stage care. I think the two are very good complimentary holdings.
Last edited by Beagle; 25-09-2018 at 11:52 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Thanks Beagle for your reply. I have only had exeperience of OCA (via family member) and have seen them developing their model over the years ...TJ and yourself are the yin-yang of ARV commentators!
It'll be a $1.50+ after that rendition
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Originally Posted by percy
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