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  1. #21
    Divorced from logic Hectorplains's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    http://www.afr.com/street-talk/macqu...0160503-gokwys

    Out from aussie about what is happening with these.. doesn't look like an IPO (unfortunately)
    Hey TJ is it unfortunate because you love the sector and want a second horse in the same race or that it would be a benchmark for better measuring Arvida against?

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hectorplains View Post
    Hey TJ is it unfortunate because you love the sector and want a second horse in the same race or that it would be a benchmark for better measuring Arvida against?
    Bit of both to be honest...

  3. #23
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    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11801193

    "Rumoured IPOs this year included... Oceania Healthcare..."

  4. #24
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    http://www.afr.com/street-talk/macqu...0170223-gujjuz

    Key take aways
    "It's expected to tell fund managers that the company's earnings were worth $NZ47 million in the 2016 financial year, which was up from $NZ29 million a year earlier."

    "... company requiring capital to fund its brownfield development pipeline of about 1000 units."

    Perhaps most interesting (and surprising?)
    "Fund managers are expected to compare it to the already listed Summerset Group Holdings, which has a $1.04 billion market capitalisation and investors including Cooper Investors and Harbour Asset Management." must be expecting similar growth maybe?

  5. #25
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    Those reports again!

    From the Herald:

    "Making waves again

    Market sources say Kiwi aged-care operator Oceania Healthcare is being spruiked around the investment industry again as it tries to talk up interest in a sharemarket float.

    This time last year Oceania chief executive Earl Gasparich downplayed chatter in the Australian Financial Review's Street Talk column that Oceania was expected to front potential buyers with its owner Macquarie Capital in tow.

    Gasparich told BusinessDesk the AFR story was "just speculative - there's no substance to it at all".

    But he did say a listing could be on the cards in the future in another year or so.

    "We still need to recapitalise at some stage, but we need to get this year behind us then forecast forward for another year," Gasparich said.

    "It would be potentially on the cards after that, but at the moment, we're focusing on the business itself."

    The company is said to be targeting a dual New Zealand and Australian listing but so far interest from Australia appears to be muted.

    According to the AFR at the one of the Sydney briefings by the company just two people were said to have turned up.

    The AFR said there was a view in the market that the business is a New Zealand one and carries no relevance to Australian investors.

    According to its website Oceania has 49 locations in New Zealand including 25 retirement villages with around 3000 care rooms and around 1000 independent living villas and apartments"

  6. #26
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    Getting listed is one thing,but for this company to succeed once listed will require a total restructure at the top end along with a severe pruning of dead wood, also at the top end.

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    I seem to remember that you said something familiar/similar about ARV citing your knowledge of the industry working in it in some capacity and yet the runt has excelled in performance thrashing the incumbents.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    I seem to remember that you said something familiar/similar about ARV citing your knowledge of the industry working in it in some capacity and yet the runt has excelled in performance thrashing the incumbents.
    Yes... couta1 I am not quite sure what you mean... are you talking about administration and integration issues that was often mentioned as a key reason not to invest in ARV? (which, to date, over 2 years after the IPO, seems to have been no issue)

    It is funny reading back in along the first 10ish pages of the thread... the talk of 'taking the dividend carrot with a grain of salt', talk of All Blacks as a reason to invest (or not - I think they have all sold out now), questions about whether ARV management wanted good growth (although the prospectus would indicate so - and the chairman I believe has a large number of SUM shares), I also think Chris Lee hated (if I can use this word) ARV, yet loved Wynyard?

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    I seem to remember that you said something familiar/similar about ARV citing your knowledge of the industry working in it in some capacity and yet the runt has excelled in performance thrashing the incumbents.
    Your wrong, I never commented on the management structure at ARV, only that I preferred the Rym and Sum model. Trader Jackson I'm talking about the top heavy structure that needs new blood once it becomes a listed company, but Mum's the word on any further detail.

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    You're not alone with ARV couta ; pretty well everyone got it wrong including Chris Lee , except trader jackson who has done very well out of it and shared his research and reasons why..Im not sure why its thrashed the big boys or if Oceana can repeat its success. Care to comment on where ARV outperformed the incumbents, on the ARV thread?

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Your wrong, I never commented on the management structure at ARV, only that I preferred the Rym and Sum model. Trader Jackson I'm talking about the top heavy structure that needs new blood once it becomes a listed company, but Mum's the word on any further detail.
    It is hard, I think, to see details on the 'top heavy structure' you speak of, have I missed something, or do you know more information about Oceania's structure that makes it 'top heavy' than what I can seem to find? Would be great if you could share what makes it top heavy, and what new blood you think is required once it becomes a listed company etc

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    It is hard, I think, to see details on the 'top heavy structure' you speak of, have I missed something, or do you know more information about Oceania's structure that makes it 'top heavy' than what I can seem to find? Would be great if you could share what makes it top heavy, and what new blood you think is required once it becomes a listed company etc
    Basically under the former CEO, an oversupply of General managers and managers was set up and still remains as we speak, hopefully this will change going forward as the current CEO seems more tuned in and efficient. I know a former employee from their HQ that has given me more info about the above structure than is currently available to the general public. For obvious reasons that's all I can say on the matter.

  13. #33
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    t_j seeing you going to be in boots and all when ; if this IPOs hope you started doing your homework

    Here is their last set of accounts
    https://www.companiesoffice.govt.nz/...CC7A88F831340D

    Worth as much as Summerset as the AFR sort of suggested?
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    t_j seeing you going to be in boots and all when ; if this IPOs hope you started doing your homework

    Here is their last set of accounts
    https://www.companiesoffice.govt.nz/...CC7A88F831340D

    Worth as much as Summerset as the AFR sort of suggested?
    Thank you couta1 for your response, and yes winner69 I am interested... but possibly not 'boots and all'... the IPO documents will be of great interest, should the IPO go ahead.
    I don't think it would be fit to compare it to SUM (this did surprise me when AFR mentioned this), at least when comparing on a build rate and land bank, but they do have a strong development ahead, in the short term. On a breif look, Operating cash flows are very strong, and ORA's have experienced good growth, with growth likely to increase in the coming years. Balance sheet heavy with debt, which is nothing new, although I am sure a significant proportion of this will disappear when listing.

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    Oceania Healthcare gearing up for IPO.JPG
    It would seem Oceania is another step closer...

  16. #36
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    t_j seeing you going to be in boots and all when ; if this IPOs hope you started doing your homework

    Here is their last set of accounts
    https://www.companiesoffice.govt.nz/...CC7A88F831340D

    Worth as much as Summerset as the AFR sort of suggested?
    Interesting....Hmmmm, if it were not for gains on revaluation of properties (IFRS) they would have lost ($13m) in 2016, an improvement from losing ($23m) from operations in 2015. Talk of big growth by promotors does not impress me. Track record to date is well below par. You cannot list on fancy pants multiples because of tailwinds in the sector unless you have a decent track record wherein you've proved your development model. This is why MET who haven't proved their case yet are on an underlying PE of only ~ 16 whereas at the other end of the scale RYM are in the high 20's.
    Promotors promises of future growth when prior growth has been very modest always worry me, Tegal the last example of a float choc-a-bloc full of corporate spin.
    Last edited by Beagle; 21-03-2017 at 01:09 PM.
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  18. #38
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    You keen as mustard eh t_j

    Hope you on your brokers favourites list
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  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by trader_jackson View Post
    With such a reliance on care beds to drive profit, it will all come down to them keeping their wages to revenue ratio below a certain level, a tough ask. Most of the money from the IPO will be used to pay down debt and until they get more development going, the previous mentioned ratio will determine how successful or not they will be.

  20. #40
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    Must admit I thought something was imminent as institutions from what I have observed in the market seem to have been keeping their powder dry on any buy bids for SUM and RYM lately.
    Key point of difference is care bed focus. Very little money to be made in that sector as I am sure Couta1 who works in that sector will tell you. (Edit I see you already have implied that mate)
    The real money is in development and recycling of churned units. Very unlikely I will participate based on what I have heard of their top heavy management structure and after reviewing their previous year's financial performance already. Lets be honest, promotors can forecast anything they like, (Tegal anyone ?), but their historical financial performance speaks for itself and it isn't flash on an underlying basis !
    https://www.companiesoffice.govt.nz/...CC7A88F831340D
    Last edited by Beagle; 31-03-2017 at 10:46 AM. Reason: Edited to comment regarding Couta1's post)
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